Earthquake Activity:
In the last three days we have seen ABOVE AVERAGE seismic activity across the world, with a total of 12 earthquakes at or above M5.0, and one M6.6 [M6.5] quake.
A total of 8 DEEP earthquakes have been recorded the past three days, which is the same number as the last update, and is ABOVE AVERAGE.
Swarms: Major swarms continue in the Gulf of Alaska, southern Mexico, and New Zealand.
· So far, we have seen a total of 361 aftershocks from the M8.0 [M7.9] earthquake that struck off the coast of Kodiak Island, Alaska, over a week ago. The highest magnitude over the past three days has been M4.7. This on-going swarm will continue sending seismic pressure down the west coast of Canada and the U.S. for at least another week, if not longer.
· Over the past three days, 53 quakes have struck in and off the coast of southern Mexico, ranging from M3.3-4.3. This is a decrease in numbers since the last update.
· There have been a total of 149 quakes in and around New Zealand in the past 48 hours. The highest magnitude has been a M4.7 quake, striking near the Kermadec Islands. This is a decrease in numbers of quakes since the last update.
Pacific Northwest Slow-Slip Event Update:
The slow-slip event in the Pacific Northwest continues now for over one year – the longest ever in the region since scientists began tracking such events. The largest cluster of tremors has been south of Olympia, Washington. The numbers of tremors has substantially decreased over the past 3 days. When the tremors stop for 48-72 hours, then the WARNING will be issued for a potential M8.4-9.1 mega-quake to occur. This may be the largest earthquake to strike anywhere in the U.S. in the last 300+ years or more! It will likely be very large and destructive. The area is many years overdue for a large earthquake to strike. Time will tell.
While I believe the highest likelihood for a large quake is within a few days after the tremors stop, it is possible a large quake could strike before there is an expected lull. So, have an earthquake plan, your gear on hand, and know what to do if you are living on the west coast, especially in the warned zones. You can monitor these on-going tremors in real time here: http://tunk.ess.washington.edu/REALTIME/
A slow-slip event is also occurring in southern California, on the Anza Gap, along the southern San Andreas fault, down through Salton Sea. Almost all of the west coast of the U.S. is now affected by these two slow-slip events, and is primed for a major quake.
Yellowstone Status:
The Yellowstone region remains active. Magnitudes in the past three days have reached a high of M2.6.
Ghost Quakes:
[These are quakes that USGS fails to report or deletes from the public feeds after briefly reporting them. Usually these quakes are heavily censored for political or other non-scientific reasons.]
· None to report.
WATCHES & WARNINGS: (imminent threats for large earthquakes or tsunamis)
· An extended WATCH is now in place for the next 30 days for the eastern Caribbean, including Haiti, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands for a potential M6.4-7.4 (revised upward) quake. This is a long-range forecast, and with a time frame that is not typical for my forecasts.
· A continuous WATCH remains in place for the Pacific Northwest, along and west of Highway 5, including the cities of Vancouver, Victoria, Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, Salem, Eugene, Grants Pass, Medford, as far south as Redding, CA, especially along the coast. This is an on-going slow-slip event, and when it eventually quiets down, we will watch for a potential catastrophic quake in the M8.4-9.1 range to occur, most likely off the coast. An earthquake striking off-shore in this forecasted magnitude range will cause a tsunami, which will have as much or more effect than the devastating damage of the quake itself.
QUAKE REPORTS: (new earthquakes occurring since the last Quake Update)
USA – M2.5 and greater earthquakes Directional portion of the state indicated in ( ).
Magnitude Location
ALASKA:
Aftershocks continue from the M8.0 quake that struck off the southwestern coast of Kodiak Island, Alaska. The highest magnitude aftershock over the past three days has been M4.7.
M5.0, M4.3, M3.0 Andreanof Islands, Aleutians (W)
M4.2 Fox Islands, Aleutians (W)
M4.2 Alaska Peninsula (S)
M3.1, M2.8 SW of Kenai (S)
M2.8 NW of Anchorage (S)
M2.6 NE of Anchorage (S)
M2.6 NW of Juneau (S)
CALIFORNIA:
M3.3 North of Coalinga (C)
M3.2 North of Death Valley (C)
M2.9, M2.5 Geysers (N)
M2.7 SW of Chico (N)
M2.6 NE of Fresno (C)
M2.5 North of Gilroy (C)
OKLAHOMA:
M2.8 East of Cherokee (N)
M2.6 NW of Blackwell (N)
OTHER U.S. & NEARBY REGIONS:
· Oregon M4.9, 2.9, 2.8 Off the coast (W)
· Virgin Islands M4.0 Saint Kitts (E)
· Puerto Rico M3.3, M3.0 Off-coast Puerto Rico (N)
· New Mexico M3.3 NE border with Colorado (NE)
· Nevada M2.9 SW of Ely (E)
M2.5 Southeastern Nevada (SE)
M2.5 NE of Reno (NW)
· Idaho M2.6 SE of Soda Springs (SE)
International – M4.9 and greater earthquakes
.
· A M6.6 [M6.5] quake struck southwest of Africa, on the plate boundary. It was followed by a M5.0 aftershock.
· A M5.5 [M5.4] quake struck near San Juan, Argentina. This location is northeast of Valparaiso, Chile, the area we were watching, and is within the region to be considered a “hit” as was forecasted.
· A M5.5 quake struck near the coast of southern Peru, as was forecasted.
· M5.3 and M5.1 quakes struck the Flores Sea, west of East Timor, as was forecasted.
· M5.3 and M4.9 quakes struck south of Panama, north of Ecuador, as was forecasted.
· M5.3 and M5.0 quakes struck in Papua New Guinea, as was forecasted.
· A M5.3 quake struck in the Solomon Islands, as was forecasted. It was heavily downgraded, and more like a M5.5-5.7. We are watching for a possible larger quake in the region.
· A M5.1 struck in La Rioja, Argentina.
· M5.1 and M5.0 quakes struck off the coast of Hokkaido, Japan.
· A M4.9 quake struck in Iceland.
· A M4.9 quake struck the central Mid-Atlantic Ridge.
SEISMICALLY ACTIVE AREAS: (highest magnitudes reported since the last update)
USA - including U.S. territories
· Alaska Active; magnitudes to M4.3.
· Northern California Active; magnitudes to M5.8.
· Southern California On-going swarms; magnitudes below M2.5.
· Yellowstone region Active; magnitudes to M2.6.
· Nevada Active; magnitudes to M2.5.
· Northern Oklahoma Active; magnitudes to M2.8.
· New Madrid, Missouri region Active; magnitudes below M2.5.
· Hawaii Active; magnitudes below M2.5.
· Caribbean region Active; magnitudes to M4.4.
· Guam/Mariana Islands region Quiet.
International
· Southern Mexico Active; magnitudes to M4.4.
· Northern Chile Active; magnitudes to M4.1.
· Central Chile Active; magnitudes to M4.1.
· Iran Active; magnitudes to M4.6.
· Turkey Active; magnitudes to M3.2.
· Greece Active; magnitudes to M4.5.
· Italy Active; magnitudes to M3.2.
· Romania Active; magnitudes to M3.3.
· Switzerland/CERN Active; magnitudes below M2.5.
· Fiji region Active; magnitudes to M4.6.
· New Zealand region Active; magnitudes to M4.6.
· Papua New Guinea region Active; magnitudes to M5.3.
· Philippines Active; magnitudes to M4.7.
· Taiwan region Quiet.
· Indonesia region Active; magnitudes to M5.3.
· Japan region Active; magnitudes to M5.1.
WATCH AREAS: (3-5 days) Forecasted Magnitude Range Actual
USA (blue font represents new forecast areas and/or updated magnitudes)
Pacific Northwest (extended time frame) M8.4-9.1 ------Western Aleutian Islands M5.0-5.4 M5.0Western Alaska Peninsula M5.7-6.7NW of Vancouver Island, Canada M5.7-6.2Off the coast of northern California/Oregon M5.7-6.4 M5.8San Francisco Bay south to Los Angeles M4.7-5.4 M4.0Mount St. Helens M2.9-3.5Yellowstone region M4.4-5.4 M4.7Colorado M4.1-5.1 M3.3Texas M4.0-4.9 M3.0
Northern Oklahoma/Kansas border region M4.5-5.5 M2.9
New Madrid, MO seismic zone M3.5-4.3
Caribbean: Haiti/Puerto Rico -Virgin Islands (ext.) M6.4-7.4 -------
InternationalSouthern Mexico M4.3-4.8 M4.4
Galapagos to Ecuador region M5.6-6.7 M5.7
Peru M5.6-6.0 M5.5
Northern Chile M5.0-6.0 M4.1
Central Chile - coastal M6.4-7.2 M5.5
New Zealand region (on-going) M4.9-5.9 M4.9
Solomon Islands to Vanuatu/New Caledonia M6.7-7.7 M5.3
Papua New Guinea M5.2-5.7 M5.3
West of East Timor M5.1-5.4 M5.3
NW tip of Sumatra, Indonesia M5.0-5.9
Taiwan to Okinawa M5.1-5.6
Japan (off-coast) M5.0-5.3 M5.1
Kuril Islands M5.0-5.4 M4.9
Nepal/India/China border region M5.0-5.4
Iran M5.7-6.9 M4.6
Turkey M5.0-5.4 M3.2
Italy M3.7-4.3 M4.0
Gibraltar M3.6-4.0 M3.3
South Sandwich Islands M5.0-5.6 M4.8
SEISMIC FORECASTING PRINCIPLES:
In the days following one of my Quake Updates or forecasts, new data often becomes available, and when it does, I will add new quake targets, delete some, or adjust magnitudes, depending on the new information. I may also extend the time frame in some cases. I am using a blue font to let the reader know of these updates. We are about 6 days into a 10-day forecast, and the “Actual” column of magnitudes will continue to fill in and update as targeted areas are hit. Remember, too, that there are often times when forecasts overlap. This kind of “tweaking” is exactly as you would see with a weather forecast as you get closer to the arrival of a major storm system. Remember, that the Quake Updates come out only every 3-5 days, and I am tweaking forecasts every day generally, so you might not see the adjustments until a day or two after I make them. In some cases, the target area has already been struck by the forecasted magnitude quake by the time the reader sees them. Some of the actual quake magnitudes will rise higher over the next few days, and will be adjusted accordingly. So if it looks like the actual quake missed the forecasted magnitude range by quite a ways, just wait, because it may rise, as some of them already have.
PREP TIPS:
The importance of a quality flashlight cannot be overstated. If you are shaken out of bed late at night by a large quake (or some other natural disaster) and the power is out, you don’t want to be stumbling around in the dark, stepping on broken glass, sheetrock screws, or fallen debris that you can’t see, while trying to get to your kid’s rooms quickly. (Having some shoes – not slippers or flip flops - at the edge of your bed, just under the side rail, where you can get them on easily and quickly is very important.) You need a flashlight with fresh batteries in the top drawer of your nightstand beside the head of your bed. You’ll need another flashlight in the console or glove box of your vehicle(s), and one in your backpack or bug-out bag.
While I don’t have a specific recommendation for a particular brand or model, I suggest you do some research and purchase a compact flashlight – something that will fit easily in a purse, coat pocket, or console. It should be made of sturdy metal – aluminum or stainless steel, and be waterproof. Mine is about 6-7 inches long and has three modes – a standard, bright, and strobe for emergency signaling. I use mine on a regular basis for checking livestock after dark, taking out predators, and on rarer occasions see how high flood waters are rising. While a cellphone light is better than nothing, it won’t help you much when you need to see at a distance. If you have to pull your kids out of fallen debris, you’ll need to see clearly to do it safely. Every adult and child should have their own flashlight in their backpacks. They make useful, practical gifts. You can spend a little or a lot, but don’t get something that is poor quality and ultra-cheap – it will cost you more in the long run!
Flashlights can be used for more than just providing light. They can be used as a defensive weapon, as a fire starting tool, and more. There are many improvised uses for a good flashlight. You’ll use it for more than just emergencies. Having one is not enough – you need backups, in case one fails, or the battery goes dead. Battery checks are important to be done on a regular basis. A flashlight with a dead battery is nearly useless.
If you don’t have quality flashlights with fresh batteries on hand, then you have work to do. Get one for every responsible member of your family. Stock up on batteries this week. It’s a simple thing to do, and relatively inexpensive, but can be life-saving. How much is your life or the lives of your family worth? You’ll thank me later. Don’t get caught unprepared.
You can check this website for basic information on how to prepare for an earthquake:
https://www.ready.gov/earthquakes
NEWS, LINKS & RESOURCES:
Here is a good visual comparison of magnitudes, to give you an idea of the power of different sized quakes. You can safely disregard the speculative magnitude 13 at the end of the presentation, along with the dubious event and date - otherwise the graphic is pretty good:
Disclaimer: These earthquake forecasts are dependent upon accurate data published on public feeds by official reporting agencies, including USGS, PNSN, EMSC, and others. If the data is inaccurate, incomplete, or censored, then any interpretations of this data will be subject to error. I take no responsibility for these agencies’ inadvertent or purposeful obfuscation of factual data. Some of these agencies have repeatedly proven to be unreliable in their reporting and frequently deceptive, so, as the saying goes, “garbage in, garbage out” may well apply.