Probability can make investing much more difficult to assess a investments potential value. Oldest question in card collecting open the pack & know for sure or keep it unopened NRFB always appreciates but it takes a while. When talking NFT packs you have a very similar question only more complicated you factoring in things that other card collectors didn't have to account for.
Splinterlands has given me another legendary gold card this is the forth in less then a year. Do I spend money most definitely but I'm increasing that investment 10 fold in a short window of time compared with staking or other forms of long term investments.
I opened an untamed pack with this $400 card yesterday.
See the image above I spent $21 USD opening packs when they fall below $3, while no one can guarantee this type of luck. The probability of breaking even becomes more likely the larger your test sample.
I would usually just sell this but this new in game rental system gives me certain possibilities to consider.
Now 70 DEC a day isn't great large sales take much longer sitting on the market, so just renting this card has a few upsides. Other then that possible passive income boost Renting the asset for a few months increases the price if the market dips take it out of rental & sell.
Given the market is already few in number and Untamed packs are no longer able to be purchased outside peer to peer markets. The 3 different forms of utility this asset possesses combined with increasing scarcity means its likely to increase in value as I'm renting it out.
So how in the hell am I this lucky, the short answer is I'm not the full answer is a mathematical probability formula with non stable values.
Before it was a little easier as one of the values was more or less stable the pack price. Now with this added variable & increased market demand you more or less start from scratch.
So with the average pack price increasing this gets a little trickier so assume for argument sake we are calculating an average pack price of $2.90 Not impossible pick your battles you can find deals.
In the Untamed NFT colection you have 170 possible results 80 of which are not instant money back price. these have increased rarity so the more expensive end is less likely to appear.
These odds can be made greater though through 450 DEC worth of Potions 5 gold potions 5 legendary potions.
according to the peaked monsters calculator it costs roughly $3.75 thus far, however you just radically shifted the odds.
above is base pack odds no potion legendary drop rate 0.039 without legendary potions 5 of them 200 DEC $0.20 USD. So by not spending the $0.20 USD on the potions you cut your odds in half below is the legendary drop rate with 5 potions.
so by spending the $0.20 USD on 5 mystery potions your legendary drop odds doubled to 0.078. Now add in the $0.25 worth of gold foil potions 5 of them & look at the odds increase on the Gold Drop rate
Doubling almost every drop rate on the gold assets drop rate while decreasing the number of cheaper untamed cards dropped.
Now this is just better odds in general giving you at least 20% higher likelihood of at least making your money back increasing in probability with the volume of packs opened with potions.
Now consider that the assets in the Untamed pack lines have spiked in average price.
Now all legendary assets are guaranteed profit on the pack price with the potions added. Even if your not as lucky and get something not legendary the gold foil assets are worth much more now to.
Even cheap gold cards are over a $1 the name of the game is mitigating losses, running enough packs your losses get covered by you earnings at this price of $2.90
It takes a lot of money to play with and your not going to profit on every pack but if the losses get covered in a large enough test sample, but its imperative you use 5 of each potion per pack.
5 of these & 5 of these on every single pack
This isn't a get rich quick scheme this is steady effort paying off in the long run
buying a little over 1,000 packs and opening them & cycling resources to buy more you steadily chip away at the probability of getting a big win.
a big win to me on untamed packs is a value of $15 or more for one NFT
Any of these would work but the list of profitable assets increases quicker then the pack sale price giving you slightly better odds now.
& all of these gold cards are now profit or even a big win
Now the 21 gold cards rare and epic gold cards above are also big wins decreasing the overall accumulated losses if not profiting.
Now with 5 cards in pack each of which has the chance of generating any of the 170 cards with around 100 of said cards negligible in losses on the pack price or profiting on 81 of them the 70 cards left might be more common but the odds of not seeing just one of the WIN cards after purchasing 10 packs lets say is not very likely.
Though the odds are worse on any one card being a profitable one it is less in the overall number of lower valued assets. With the current card market prices at at a glance the average price has gone up by at least half since the Untamed packs sold out increasing almost instantly with the renting system. This decreases the overall likely hood of not seeing one card that costs $1 or more
If the losses on every pack are not he entire purchase price meaning you get something back the gradual opening of cheap enough packs in my experience with potions makes your money back & then some.
Renting gives this a whole new element to consider via passive income making it even more important to get theses cards while you can afford them.
Beta packs and orbs prices can show you what is to come so get these untamed packs while you can either way they will be profitable Hodl the pack for a
a more or less guaranteed ROI in several months or risk opening the pack with potions and the favor of the RNG gods.
To anyone new to Splinterlands a ranked match is your standard match which can be increased in league if you have enough account power. Account power is determined by the overall burn value of your colection of Splinterlands cards. Increasing in your leagues increases both season rewards and daily rewards for quests.
A daily quest usually consists of five ranked match wins with certain requirements met that changes on every challenge.
Mine yesterdays was the neutral quest requiring my to not play neutral cards for 3 ranked matches I win. Each win pays some DEC and the quest usually drops 1 chest for the bronze league adding 1 chest every league after. Of course we can do better then this besides the league increasing challenge reward chest numbers.
The potion above is a quest potion 750 DEC or $0.75 a piece only one is used at a time so it only costs $0.75 to increase rewards chests to 5 instead of the standard 1. At my current league I get 8 chests with the quest potion 5 is just better then 1 on the odds alone.
all of these come only from reward chests
You can get bad cards and just DEC but you can also get packs and legendary cards found no where else.
If you cant see this quest reward exclusive legendary is worth $88,000 USD AKA around $20,000 more then my house. While not that lucky my first gold legendary came from a daily reward chest.
To be honest my NFT gig started here with one card from a free daily reward chest no potion. Paid for my Splinterlands spell book with HIVE posts profits $10 best $10 I ever spent.
NFTs have changed my Life & continue to do so this is why I stress being patient playing their games earning rewards. For the least amount of money possible let your NFT portfolio pay for itself gradually, every side hustle I do nothing holds a candle to splinterlands.
1 little Splinterlands reward changed my life this is in no way exaggerated or a joke.
This is mostly done to demonstrate the colection the odds on these packs are better if you dont open them but I can already make back over double my purchase price of a pack by selling one the other is free.
Unboxing results
3 of the 20 NFTS are the second level rarity meaning they are more valuable then the other ones.
Now why this colection caught my attention their burn use case is flawless anything seamless like this has major money in it.
last time it took 4 NFTs now its 6 this will get interesting as time goes on
Five of these NFTs make a stainless steal rarity
4 stainless steel NFTs of the same type makes a gold NFT
3 Golds make a Dark matter NFT the highest i think the burn use case goes
So if you buy the NFTs needed cheaper then the end sale price of the rarer asset accounting for the service fee for selling 6%. You can effectively use this burn use case to profit but you have to do the math first its different for every NFT price so its not a singular solution.
This part of the mission two burn use case hasn't started yet but they will get a second wind eventually when introduced.
only like 32 of these NFTs above exist but that price in the image shown is the last sale not a listing a sale.
Meaning that singular NFT sold for $122,600 USD in the last 2 months that's insane one digital WAX collectable selling for that price.
Just today in peer to peer sales this colection has had sales totaling close to $200,000. This for all intensive purposes defies logic but dont question it is sorta my mantra.
This one is rather interesting NFT colection Bropunks launching July 13th this roadmap is rather cool with an airdrop scheduled for those that open packs.
totally a stoner colection with weed references everywhere
Noticing the pipes bongs joints I'm sensing a theme
This NFT colection has never made packs just individual asset drops but its still fairly popular.
I try to include a single claim airdrop URL for WAX wallet users containing free NFTs, It may only be claimed by the first lucky person to click the link. After claimed once the URL will no longer be active. The lucky reader should receive 6 NFTs if you received less then 6 check your whitelist settings.
https://wax.atomichub.io/trading/link/183510?key=5JvfYKLGyQvbx8bEJD3toAC3RXaEaw8DDqTiFqF4EeunqbiC26B
Once claimed please let the other readers know in the comments it helps.
Perhaps your interested in purchasing any of my NFTs from my ever expanding collection you may do so here.
My stock constantly rotates so it changes daily
https://wax.atomichub.io/explorer/account/akyqy.wam
Prospectors topping the NFT sale value for 3 days now also a free to play game check it out at the link below. BTW they have roulette so the Martingale system works here however no site reward and its not a large project so doing this could be detrimental. this game is free it makes real crypto give it a shot its not bad honestly you can make quite a bit on it.
https://prospectors.io?waxref=akyqy.wam
more free WAX games, rewarding free NFTs/Crypto
https://alienworlds.io/
https://rplanet.io/
https://collect.social/referral?r=akyqy.wam
Rising star is a totally free HIVE game no input for steady output my kind of investment.
https://www.risingstargame.com?referrer=chubb149
Up to 4 NFTs on Womplay each of which adds to my accounts EOS bonusses daily. Nice little system of improving payout through involving their NFT collections which increases their Utility value. Making it a investment not a frivolous expenditure this helps market demand increasing price.
This makes 5 total NFTs thus far & $1.31 EOS for free increasing in payout due to the ownership perks of the NFTs. Seriously it takes very little effort once you have NFTs which give EOS payout bonuses each week.
https://womplay.io/?ref=EDHNQLM
womplay has had a slow start for earnings potential but now not bad
Oh you know like wiping out hours a day smoking way to much rosin edibles and whatever pot I cant remember where I got it NE way, dont think its donkey butter but fairly similar to my combo from yesterday.
Little lax but I got a little bit of hillbilly disputes to settle before I can go home today. So not really in a situation for BUD photos today but I might have some new photos of my buddies outdoor on my next post.
Last tid bit the alien ships points just bought me a NFT
Not bad the prices fluctuate on the credits price which leads me to believe its a credits from alien ships is a crypto unlisted on alcor
https://alienships.io/
Oh and a SAW like the movie franchise just announced a WAX NFT colection
https://twitter.com/WAX_io/status/1413528374929133574?s=20
- WAX_io
