Another Martingale win..

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First thing, I saw that VIX (fear index) was still very low.. I told myself not to lose anymore money trying to trade in these conditions. (It's kinda like trying to go fishing during a storm) I want to see VIX > 15. It gotten up to above 18 once in recent days, but has since fallen back down. :(

I didn't plan on trading martingale style today, but that's what happened. Since I was on my paper money account today, I have the almost unlimited funds I need to make that strategy work. Still, I didn't get too crazy with it.. using MANY contracts (like 100+) which I doubt I would ever do. (never say never) :P

Here's a good article on martingale trading that is too long to just copy/paste here..

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/06/martingale.asp

Martingale can be summed up as a 'double down' strategy.. just increase the bet after a loss, so that u still win overall, after an eventual win. I modify that slightly so that it suits options trading. (basically, not double, but triple the contracts)

OK, here's what I saw on the charts this morning..


bulls were running!

Here on the 15m, it was clear that the bulls were definitely in control yesterday, but losing steam now.. the bears were fighting hard..

Zooming in on the 5m showed the bulls were running again. I would watch a bit more before getting in..

5 minutes later and I was in..

This was the start of my unplanned martingale trade. It didn't take long for price to snake its way down to hit my stop. So, I decided I would wait till the very end of market (last 20 minutes) and try again with a trade going UP again, like my original trade.


price was moving down, BUT the current, the underlying movement of the market was strongly UP. (the slope of the average was UP)

I entered right at the AT THE MONEY since at this time of the market, it's very very hard to get an option any further away. (this is gambling time! and people want only the fast action! :P) By the time I got around to taking this snap, my option's strike had improved greatly, from 38 to 13..

Ding ding ding!


the bears tried hard at the end, but the bulls (probably a big bull or 2 joined in) kept price ABOVE my strike price. (the red line) I did have a stop in place, but it was below the average and never close at all.

Here's the final result..


so to go over it now.. I tried just 1 contract worth .60 ($60) going UP, but got stopped out, for a -$60 on the day. Then I entered with 3 contracts, again going UP, but right at the end of market. This time price behaved and ended above my strike price.. for a win of (.65 x 3 contracts) of $195. This minus my earlier loss.. total of $135 on the day. Not a bad win, but I doubt I would ever gamble/play like this using real money, unless I did have such a huge account where it was possible, and not losing more than 4-10% if I end up losing.

Another Martingale win.. | Ecency