A lot of talk has been made about the punishing sanctions on Russia to try and put pressure on the economy.
Let's be serious, the Russian political elite is not the type to feel pressure from unrest from citizens, Putin has spent 2 decades solidifying his position. Despite what you see in the media, there's still a large portion of the citizens who support him.
The Russian elite have more than enough money to weather the storm and they won't be hurt.
It's the ordinary citizen who wants to buy goods and services, access banking, and live within their means that's going to get the full force of the pain. Do you think they are going to look to the West for help, or their own government?
In addition, this widespread Russiaphobia and xenophobic outlast the population and anything remotely Russian. For fucks sake people are talking about banning Russian cats, and athletes who don't know shit about fuck, and just want to live their lives.
This hate is pushing more Russians who may have been on the fence and been westernized to side with Putin and rally around the flag.
When people are vilified, they tend to find solace in one another and galvanize support within these nationalist ideals. Don't believe me?
Think of 911, a total tragedy, and loss of life, how Americans rallied around that moment, so why wouldn't Russians do the same?
Claiming the early win
Now if you look in the media, people are cheering on these sanctions and the ruble has taken a beating, Russian stocks have taken a beating and yes it has disrupted the Russian economy. The fact is smart traders are buying up these impaired assets because they know they will rebound.
We are seeing virtue-signaling companies and funds all over the west dump these stocks and forex, thinking they're making a difference, but they're really only providing a decade-long buying opportunity for those picking up these stocks.
Now the West, especially Western Europe, are claiming an early win, you've even seen normally neutral Swiss and the Swedes come out against the Russians.
But guess what? The Russians don't forget, they're looking at who their new trading partners will be after all this is said and done.
The commodity bull run has begun
Russia is a massive commodity producer and manufacturing base, some even call it a gas station with nuclear weapons, which is kind of funny but they've got a lot going for them. Sure they don't have the fancy information economy like the US with techs tocks or the finished goods like the Europeans with high-end vehicles and luxury brands but it has something EVERYONE needs.
Food and energy, and right now, we're in a bull market for commodities, just look at the YOY increases for essential items needed for a modern economy to function.
Energy
Livestock
Industry
Agriculture
Russia doesn't need the west
Western Europe has a population of around 200 million, add to that Canada, America, NZ, UK and the US and its around 800 million people give or take. Yes, these countries have a disproportionate amount of wealth compared to other countries, but how much growth do they have in them compared to countries in Africa and Asia.
If Russia turns its back on the West and starts tapping into the 1.2 billion people in Africa, India, and China's 2.5 billion and South East Asia's 400 - 500 million, they've got plenty of customers ready and willing.
The Russian economy will be okay in the long term and could even help unlock markets in Africa and Southeast Asia that need that energy to become viable producers of finished goods.
Living well doesn't go out of style
Western Europe basically bit the hand that feeds them, Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, once in Russia's sphere of influence will cut off the west. These countries provide a large portion of Western Europe's food and energy supply.
When we consider that the Western countries and their following of the bullshit scam Paris accord continue to chase renewables as a savior and offshore production so their carbon numbers look good, they are fucked royally.
The cost of living in these countries is going to shoot through the fucking roof as European countries all fight for energy and food from the remaining suppliers.
I can easily see energy costs and food costs across Europe double even triple at this rate and if it does what do you think people are going to do? They're going to dump assets like shit hotcakes, real estate, stocks, bonds, anything not nailed down will get sold, because stocks don't keep you warm and you can't fucking eat a house.
The dumping of assets to chase commodities is going to force interest rates to rise and the Europeans will have one choice. Mass default, or print their tits off and devalue that Euro for all its worth.
I am still torn on this one, I feel Germany who basically run the EU will step in to defend the Euro. They still have so much scar tissue from the last hyperinflation, they're going to advocate for a deflationary depression over hyperinflation.
However, other Euro countries won't see eye to eye with this plan, so this remains to be seen how it will play out.
Either way you're fucked!
What about Russia
Sure the Russians may not have the latest doohickies and consumer goods from Japan, America, and Western Europe, but they'll have all they need, in income and a new manufacturing base to trade with and rebuild their economy.
Have your say
What do you good people of HIVE think?
So have at it my Jessies! If you don't have something to comment, "I am a Jessie."
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