The original S2F model from 2019 correctly predicted an early 2021 peak. The rebound in November was fugazi imo (no volume, retail was gone, etc.)
For a while last year it looked like lengthening cycles were a thing, which never made much sense to me, but now we know that theory is dead.
If I had to guess, we bottomed in June for risk-on assets (SP 500 at 3,600, now 4,000). Bitcoin will climb the wall of worry but we won't have another bull market until 2024.
