I've been a Mathematics enthusiast during all my days as a student, and I was used to looking for challenging problems to solve. I'm busy with my career now, so I rarely get a chance to refresh my skills in math.
The moment I came across this mind game contest by @jaycee7viral, I immediately took out my pen and paper to see if I still have those unused abilities that I've been hiding for so long. :)
Applying the concepts of probability on mutually inclusive and exclusive events, and tapping them to the problem, we get a general formula for the probability of living, that is:
If we take a look at the equation, there are two parameters that should be at their maximum values to obtain the maximum possible chance for the prisoner to survive:
The maximum value of any probability is one (1) and it will never go higher than that.
Below is a tabulation of all the possible situations wherein one of the bowls contains all red marbles and the corresponding probability for each condition.
Have you submitted your entry to this #mindgamescontest? Follow @jaycee7viral and read his ongoing challenge here. If you can come up with a probability higher than 74.75%, you take the prize! Haha! Good luck! :)