A common saying in Poker is that you should “Play the Player and not the Cards”. Any amateur player can shove their chip stack All-In before the Flop comes out and hope for the best, but what about at the other end of the game? What about when you have seen ALL the cards out on the table? You are sitting there as the last to act before Showdown and you’re pretty confident that you have the best hand?
That’s where Value Betting the River is tricky to get right. It’s not a question of whether to Bet or not, because clearly if you are the last to act and you think you have the best hand then you should Bet. The question is - How MUCH should you bet?
Basically you want your Value Bet to be Small enough that your opponent(s) will call you with weaker hands than you have. You also want it to be Big enough to extract as much Value from the hand as you can so that you’re not leaving money on the table. This is where the Art Form comes into play…
There are many things to consider and a lot of them are more about your opponent(s) than you. Are they Loose? Are they on Tilt? How big is their remaining Chip Stack and are they Pot Committed? Are they Desperate? What sort of hand do they think you have? Is it obvious you are in front or have you Hidden your strength in the earlier Betting Rounds? What sort of Table Image do you have and do they think you might Bluff?
This is very much the point in the game where you should be Playing the Player and you’ll know you’ve got your River Value Bet right when they deliberate because you’ve put them right on the borderline with a tough decision and they really aren’t sure whether to Call or not. Then you'll know you’ve nailed it when they Call and say something like “I needed to see it” as you Rake their chips away...
