Is Gold Breaking OUT or Breaking DOWN?

After looking positive early in the month of June the last 2 weeks has seen the Spot Gold price starting to trend back down. Considering the war escalations that have occurred in the Middle East over this period the recent price action has been a bit of a surprise to me. I had noted that Gold Broke its Consolidation Channel at the start of June but it's still trading inside the range of $3,150 to $3,500 USD so maybe it is just consolidating and my original timeframe of 3 to 6 months consolidation that I had predicted could be on the money. But what does the chart say?

I've drawn in the Channel Resistance line that I'd used previously as I'd based my last post on the fact that it had been broken. You can see that since then the price did come back down to bounce off that line which follows the old adage - Resistance Becomes Support. That suggests to me that the line is still significant and the price is still remaining above that line for now. As such, from a Technical Analysis perspective my bullish bias still holds even if it's looking a bit more tentative after the last 2 weeks. I'm not going to get too concerned unless it drops below about $3,200 in the next couple of weeks - or $3,150 in the next month.

Personally I think the Fundamentals for gold are still quite bullish and maybe even more so since my last post. It's fairly obvious to me that the whole DOGE Savings narrative has fallen down and the "Big Beautiful Bill" looks to me like the uninhibited spending is going to continue in the US, if not accelerate over the medium term. There is still pressure on the Fed Chair and it looks inevitable that the next Fed Chair is going to be a political appointment of someone who will explicitly run another low interest rate policy with obvious ramifications.

So for me it's looking pretty clear where we are headed now that the new US administration is established and it's not going to be a return to Fiscal Responsibility or Sound Money in any way, shape or form for the worlds reserve currency. That means Precious Metals is the place to be to preserve long term wealth. Stack ON.