The Group Stage of the World Cup is winding up with 36 of 45 games completed so far. Only 9 games remain in the Group Stage and with the Ladder poised as it is there are only a handful of those that are key matches which will decide who qualifies for the Finals and in what order.
India, South Africa and Australia have already practically qualified for the Finals due to their dominant positions on the Ladder. The 4th Finals Spot is still up for grabs with 3 teams having a mathematical chance of getting through, even though I am going to discount Afghanistan because while they have played well to date I don’t see them getting through with 2 tough games ahead. That leaves New Zealand and Pakistan to fight it out for the 4th Finals spot and quite possibly that battle will come down to who has the better Net Run Rate.
Therefore to my eye there are 3 more big games to keep an eye on :-
1. India vs South Africa - Sunday November 5
Played tonight, this is a match up of the Top 2 on the Ladder. India is undefeated so far but South Africa has also been very dominant. Quite likely this game is going to be a preview of the actual Final in a couple of weeks time, but also likely is that whoever wins this will finish the Ladder in 1st and have an easier game against whoever finished 4th in their first semi-final....giving them an excellent chance of playing in the Final.
2. New Zealand vs Sri Lanka - Thursday November 9
With New Zealand clinging to 4th spot currently this is a must-win game for them and they will start out as favorites. Sri Lanka have been disappointing this World Cup but they are still dangerous. The Meta Game for Net Run Rate is going to be important here so New Zealand will need win and win comfortably to be confident of going through.
3. Pakistan vs England - Saturday November 11
Despite some very ordinary performances, the mercurial Pakistan team are still stacked with talent and capable of beating anyone on their best day. England currently sit bottom of the ladder and are no hope of making the Finals but they are still a quality side and with the pressure off they are quite capable of playing spoiler here to take out Pakistan. Pakistan need to win and win well to boost their Net Run Rate.
Of course there is still going to be some quality cricket played in the other 6 matches of the Group Stage. The form line of Australia will be important but they do have 2 relatively soft games that should see them coming into the Finals with some confidence and momentum. If you’re anything like me though, you might have some fatigue with so much cricket to follow. There has been 1 or more matches every day for a month so I’m just going to focus on the big 3 matches above and I’ll try to freshen up for the Finals Series.
