Tech Leads, Macro Looms
The first half of 2026 is over, and what a ride it has been!
After a flat January and February, we saw a big dip in March as the Iran conflict began. April brought a strong comeback with the stock market recovering, and since then we’ve mostly been moving sideways. Overall, the S&P 500 is up +9% YTD, which isn’t bad at all.
The main drivers on the upside have been Big Tech: $GOOGL is up +12%, $NVDA +7%, and good old $AAPL +6%. But Micron and SanDisk stole the show with incredible gains of +300% and +700%. What a rally!
The second half of the year is shaping up to be even more interesting. It’s still unclear what the new Fed chair will do with interest rates. Hike because of higher oil-driven inflation? Or cut because of soaring debt levels? Remember, we’re approaching $40 trillion, guys!
Another major event will be the midterms in November. Can the Democrats make gains and turn Trump into a lame duck for his last two years, or will Republicans manage to surprise? There are plenty of macro catalysts ahead, not to mention the ongoing tensions with Iran and the war in Ukraine.
My approach? Stay invested, but don’t be afraid to take some profits along the way. I’d also be prepared for another drawdown over the summer that could shake up these one-dimensional markets, which remain heavily concentrated in Tech and the AI trade.
