First Five Days Signal Points to a Positive 2026 for U.S. Markets

A Bullish Start to 2026

The first full trading week of 2026 is in the books, and the U.S. market is off to a solid start. The S&P 500 is in the green, up +1.5% YTD. Historically, a positive return during the first five trading days has been followed by a positive full year roughly ~80% of the time for major U.S. indices, so far, so good.

The main drivers behind the momentum are a softening labor market, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts, and continued strength in big tech. Microsoft is up +1.3% YTD, Tesla +1.6%, and Amazon stands out with a strong +9.2% YTD, making it one of the early leaders.

On the other hand, we haven’t seen a proper correction of 20–30% in several years now. Historically, the longer markets go without a meaningful pullback, especially after multiple strong years, the probability of a setback increases.

My outlook, at least for the first half of 2026, remains constructive. The S&P 500 is approaching the 7,000 level, a clear psychological milestone. With further rate cuts likely and U.S. midterms on the horizon, the administration has every incentive to keep economic momentum intact.

So what’s your take on 2026, bullish or bearish?