Why I’m not panicking over the 10-year yield and sticking to my 30-year DCA retirement plan
Hey guys, I wanted to chat about what's been happening in the markets lately because I know a lot of people are getting totally spooked. The US 10-year Treasury yield recently touched crazy high levels, and normally, you'd think tech stocks would just crash and burn. But look at what actually happened—the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both went up!
A big part of this was short covering hitting exactly on option expiration day, sending semiconductor stocks through the roof. We also had that Axios interview where Trump hinted the war might end sooner rather than later. On top of that, heavyweights like Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg directly told the White House that we absolutely cannot afford to slow down AI investments right now.
I hear a lot of chatter about the Fed hiking rates maybe one or two more times this year. But honestly, JPMorgan came out saying we might already be at the peak and rates will likely head down from here.
This is exactly why trying to time the market is a nightmare. It’s almost impossible to guess which assets to hold and in what proportions when the macro environment shifts every single day.
Here is the thing a lot of people miss.
The US government is essentially running things with a heavy hand right now, very similar to how they handled World War II back in the 1940s. The Treasury Department actually holds way more power over the market right now than the Fed does with its interest rate levers. If they have to, the Treasury can just step in and implement Yield Curve Control (YCC).
If you aren't familiar, YCC is when the government forces the benchmark interest rate to stay at a target level and literally refuses to let it go higher.
They did this during WWII because debt was piling up and inflation was rising during the war, and hiking rates would have completely destroyed their ability to fund military supplies.
Even though US debt is sitting around a massive $40 trillion right now, it’s not the immediate apocalypse people think it is. The Treasury might not use YCC forcefully today, but the option is always on the table.
More importantly, the US is in a massive race against China for AI supremacy. To win this, the government has to keep the economy stimulated so capital keeps flowing into the AI sector. Because of this, I really don't think we need to lose sleep over tech valuations dropping just because bond yields spike temporarily.
My personal strategy hasn't changed at all. I’m just going to keep dollar-cost averaging into my retirement accounts every single month for the next 30 years. It’s boring, but it works. If you want to build a solid nest egg, check out these resources I’ve been reading—they really helped me shape my own style.
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