it’s been a minute. I’ve been watching the markets closely lately and honestly, things are getting a bit wild. With all the Middle East tension right now, Brent oil just crossed $100 and WTI is over $90. Naturally, the bond market is reacting—the US 10-year yield is hitting 4.6% and the 30-year just broke 5%.
I think simple is the best strategy.
But the really crazy part to me is what’s happening in tech. Did you see Google's earnings? They upped their CAPEX guidance to like $195B - $205B. They literally spent $44.9B in Q2, which was higher than the market expected, and the stock took a 5% hit, dropping even more after hours.
It feels like there’s a huge rotation happening. Something like $2.3 trillion is moving out of the Mag 7 and straight into AI infrastructure. Like, who is actually making money on AI right now? It’s not the service providers yet—they are the ones doing all the heavy spending.
The real winners right now are the memory, power supply, and storage guys. Supply is super tight, so companies like SanDisk and Western Digital are jacking up prices and their stocks are just going up. The SOX (Philly Semi index) is up 90% in a year, which is nuts.
Tbh, nobody really knows when these big tech companies will turn their AI services into massive profits. For my own retirement strategy, trying to time this rotation is a headache.
I’m just sticking to my monthly DCA strategy and keeping my portfolio balanced. It’s boring, but it works.
