Hope you're all doing well today! Just wanted to chat about what's going on in the markets lately. The S&P 500 slipped a tiny bit by 0.17% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.83%, but the Dow actually managed to climb 0.49%.
Looking at the Fed Watch, the 10-year treasury yield is sitting around 4.1% for the second half of the year, and the chance of a rate hike dropped to 46%. It really feels like people are expecting at least one rate cut soon.
WTI oil is stable down at $79, and the Fear and Greed index moved from neutral straight into greed. So overall, market sentiment is pretty upbeat! Volatility is down too with the VIX at 15.49.
But here's what's bothering me a bit. Semiconductors were flying high just a month ago, and now they're correcting hard. SanDisk dropped 8% after missing their targets, and Western Digital fell 10%.
It reminds me of Peter Lynch’s cocktail party theory—when everyone is telling you to buy a stock, it's usually the top.
I've also been watching the big hyperscaler companies closely.
They are extending their depreciation schedules and setting up SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicles).
It honestly looks like they are moving debt around to hide costs from their main balance sheets because they sense some danger ahead.
If things don't go as planned, those SPVs are going to be a huge mess. Some companies might crash, while others will dominate.
Honestly, I don't have the magic ability to pick the exact winners in all this chaos. So, my strategy is simple: I just buy the whole market to grow my pension assets safely over time.
