Regarding memory semiconductors, the CEO of Seagate stated in an interview that while AI demand is exploding, it is difficult to keep up with supply speeds, and the pace of factory expansion is failing to keep up.
The reason memory stock prices had risen until now was the assumption that increased demand would naturally lead to sufficient supply; however, as supply delays continue, expectations have increased that revenue growth for memory manufacturers will be constrained.
Following these remarks, Seagate fell by over 7%, Micron dropped by 6%, and Western Digital also declined significantly.
As Jensen Huang acknowledges, the structural memory shortage is a situation where demand has surged, leading to a lack of capacity. With the emergence of AI agents, data centers and memory are required in much greater quantities; however, since this is still in the early stages, it is predicted that it will be difficult to keep up with demand for the next 10 years.
The S&P 500 initially declined but fully recovered its losses by the end of the trading session. It is reported that Trump halted his threat to attack Iran after suggesting he might do so, following a request from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to postpone the bombing, as they are currently in serious negotiations with Iran.
The market began to feel relieved as news spread that the request to stop the bombing included the dismantling of nuclear weapons, a condition of Saudi Arabia's mediation proposal.
As long-term pension investors, we quietly rebalance our assets by maintaining our proportions. We sold 10% of the profits from the recently risen Memory ETF and the Nasdaq 100 ETF to purchase SGOV.
If the Nasdaq 100 index experiences a pullback, we plan to buy QQQ, AIPO, or DRAM.
There is no rush; if the price of each ETF falls below the 20-day moving average, we intend to sell 5% of our cash-equivalent SGOV to buy the ETF. Furthermore, if the price drops below the 80-day, 160-day, and 200-day moving averages, we plan to purchase 10% of each.
