23 May block time
x-axis : block time
y-axis : probability accumulated from most fast block time .
exp( -12/120) ~= 90.484% Probability finding after 12 second is 90%
exp( -24/120) ~= 81.873%
exp( -60/120) ~= 60.653% Probability finding after 1 minute is 61%. Upper chart should show 39%
exp(-120/120) ~= 36.788% Probability finding after 2 minute is 37%. Upper chart should show 63%
exp(-240/120) ~= 13.534%
exp(-360/120) ~= 4.979%
exp(-720/120) ~= 0.248%
x-axis : sum of continuous ten block time
sum_last10_time <5 minute probability is 0.03(3%)
sum_last10_time <10 minute probability is 0.12(12%)
sum_last10_time 's major range is from 0 to about 40. So cdy need to raise difficulty for range about 40.
sum_last10_time <30 minute //probability 65%
increase diff A(decrease target_value)
sum_last10_time <20 minute //probability 40%
increase diff B(decrease target_value)
sum_last10_time <15 minute //probability 30%
increase diff C(decrease target_value)
sum_last10_time <10 minute //probability 10%
increase diff D(decrease target_value)
x-axis : sum of continuous five block time
sum_last05_time 's major range is from 0 to about 20
sum_last05_time <15 minute //probability 70%
increase diff A(decrease target_value)
sum_last05_time <10 minute //probability 60%
increase diff B(decrease target_value)
sum_last05_time <7.5 minute //probability 40%
increase diff C(decrease target_value)
sum_last05_time <5.0 minute //probability about 25%
increase diff D(decrease target_value)
By this method can reduce continuous short time blocks.
