That a Facebook/YouTube alternative where you get paid to create, comment and curate ... is a HUGE idea.

This is a silly and ridiculous goal. Such ambition generally doesn't succeed. Facebook didn't overcome MySpace by focusing on being the largest social network and Google didn't overcome Yahoo! by striving to be the biggest and best search engine. Each has a product and focused on making it the best product it could be for the era in which it launched. They succeeded on those terms and the marketplace responded.

Now, in all honesty, it's not JUST a matter of building an honest marketplace. People also have to know about it. With thousands of cryptos, it's hard to be heard amongst the din. So, how do you solve that problem?

The real tell will be in the launch. Word of mouth is still the best advertising. EOS can throw millions at advertising, but if early users don't get passionate enough to do some evangelizing, it won't go far. This is Narrative's dilemma. They're so focused on development (and actually rolled out a product too soon) that they can't see the forest for the trees. No one is promoting the platform (and Niche owner promotion is an intrinsic part of it) because no one wants to do so until the platform works out its bugs. By the time it does, it could be too late despite having done some things right.

From what I've read, Facebook will have a coin much sooner than that.

Next year.

If I were a betting man, at the moment I'd give EOS odds over Facebook.

It doesn't have to be one or the other. Blockchain developers have to quit aiming for Facebook. All they need is a solid core of true believers to keep the economy moving. I guarantee you that when Facebook launches GlobalCoin, there will be a huge part of the user base who cares less. It will be popular in Asia, but in the U.S., most users will just keep doing what they're doing now without a second thought.

In my opinion, everybody's analyzing the wrong things. I couldn't care less about what Cypto Gurus think. I care a great deal about what Goldman Sachs thinks.

This is absolutely true. The first blockchain social media that gets real institutional backing will be the early winner. It won't be Steemit. It could be EOS, but it's a let's-wait-and-see at the moment.

I couldn't care less about how many DApps a blockchain has.

This is something that an institutional investor would care about. The ability to create Dapps is a part of what drives the crypto economy on a blockchain like EOS. Currently, EOS has the most Dapps in development, I believe, and Steemit is third, right behind Ethereum. So this is a huge selling factor for any investor who is thinking about dropping money into the capital bucket. Ethereum is plagued with scaling issues. As the try to figure that out, EOS could pass them in development by learning from their mistakes. The first breakout blockchain will take the industry to a whole new level--a mainstream level, and getting the right investment is a huge part of that.

I care a great deal about which blockchain is first to secure a functional derivatives market (call and put options).

This alone won't attract institutional investment, however, it could spur things on at a more rapid pace.

@dan has said that MEOS will have the ability to import content from other platforms (and I presume that specifically includes Steemit). I don't know about you, but I'd be thrilled to get a second chance to get paid on my Steemit posts. And starting over ... if large numbers of Steemians open MEOS accounts, your Steemit network will remain largely in tact following a move.

If this happens, it could lead to a mass exodus. Some quality users could certainly transfer their STEEM to EOS, and if EOS makes it easy to move SP out of STEEM wallets and into an EOS wallet, portability will be less of an issue.

In the end, no crypto will be functional unless it's KYC and AML compliant.

I think this is where it's going, and in a few years, no one will complain. This is one thing Narrative saw as essential to keep out the bots. It has worked, though it has its own problems. EOS developers are certainly watching Narrative and learning from its missteps too.