The New England Patriots travel to Buffalo on Sunday, October 4, 2026, for an AFC East matchup with the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium.
Buffalo enters Week 4 at 3-0, while New
England comes in at 1-2, making this an important early-season divisional game for both teams. The Patriots are trying to prevent Buffalo from putting more distance between them in the AFC East, while the Bills have a chance to remain unbeaten.
For football fans following the matchup — and everyone watching their NFL Squares numbers throughout the afternoon — here are five factors that could shape Patriots vs. Bills.
1. Can Drake Maye Keep New England’s Offense on Schedule?
A road divisional game becomes much more difficult when an offense repeatedly faces third-and-long.
That puts significant pressure on Drake Maye and the Patriots offense to produce manageable situations on first and second down.
Maye appeared on New England’s injury report this week with a right shoulder issue, but he practiced fully and does not carry an injury designation into Sunday’s game.
Against Buffalo, avoiding negative plays will be especially important. New England doesn’t necessarily need explosive touchdowns on every possession. Sustained drives, first downs and field-position advantages could help the Patriots shorten the game and keep Buffalo’s offense watching from the sideline.
For NFL Squares players, those long drives matter too. A possession that appears headed nowhere can suddenly produce a field goal or late touchdown that completely changes the final digit of a quarter.
2. New England’s Secondary Faces a Major Test
One of the biggest developments entering Sunday is the absence of Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who has been ruled out with a shoulder injury.
That’s a significant challenge against Buffalo.
New England will have to compensate through coverage adjustments, pressure and contributions from the rest of the secondary. The Patriots elevated defensive backs ahead of the trip to Buffalo as they prepare to handle the absence.
Buffalo should test those replacements early.
If the Bills can consistently create favorable matchups in the passing game, New England may be forced to devote additional help to coverage — potentially opening other areas of the offense.
3. The Battle in the Trenches Could Decide the Game
New England will also be without defensive tackle Christian Barmore, who was ruled out because of a shoulder injury.
That makes Buffalo’s offensive line versus New England’s defensive front another matchup worth watching.
The Patriots need to prevent Buffalo from establishing comfortable offensive rhythm. If Buffalo can consistently stay ahead of the chains with productive early-down plays, its entire playbook remains available.
New England’s defense needs the opposite: tackles near the line of scrimmage, pressure and opportunities to force Buffalo into predictable passing situations.
The Patriots don’t necessarily have to dominate every snap. They do need to win enough individual battles to prevent Buffalo from controlling the pace of the game.
4. Turnovers and Field Position Become Even More Important
In divisional games, one possession can change everything.
A turnover near midfield, a long punt return, a fourth-down stop or even a penalty that extends a drive can create the scoring opportunity that determines a quarter.
New England won 23-20 in Buffalo last season, while Buffalo answered with a 35-31 victory in the rematch, continuing a recent pattern of competitive AFC East meetings. The teams have split their season series in each of the previous three seasons.
That history is another reason not to assume Sunday’s game will simply follow the teams’ current records.
Buffalo may be unbeaten, but divisional familiarity can produce unexpected games.
5. Red-Zone Execution Could Control the Final Score
Moving the football between the 20-yard lines is only part of the job.
What happens inside the red zone can determine whether a drive produces three points or seven — and that difference becomes especially interesting when you’re following NFL Squares.
A 17-13 game can become 20-13 with a field goal.
One touchdown later, it might become 20-20.
Suddenly an NFL Square that looked meaningless several minutes earlier is sitting on the winning numbers.
That’s part of what makes Squares fun to follow during a live football game: you don’t necessarily need one team to dominate. Every scoring change can reshuffle the board.
Sunday NFL Squares GameDay
Patriots-Bills gives football fans another opportunity to follow the game alongside the BGA SportsCenter NFL Squares board.
Instead of only watching the final winner, NFL Squares gives you a reason to pay attention to every touchdown, field goal, extra point and quarter-ending score.
Sunday’s matchup is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET at Highmark Stadium, with Buffalo hosting New England in their first divisional meeting of the 2026 season.
🏈 Follow This Week’s Board Through BGA SportsCenter
Check the board, follow the numbers and watch how the score changes throughout Patriots vs. Bills:
BGA SportsCenter — NFL Squares
Whether your numbers look great before kickoff or completely hopeless entering the fourth quarter, one scoring drive can change everything.
Pick your squares. Follow the board. Watch the score. Enjoy NFL GameDay with BGA SportsCenter.
Discussion
Who has the biggest matchup advantage Sunday — Patriots or Bills?
And if you’re playing NFL Squares, what two numbers would you want heading into the game?
Leave your prediction in the comments.