China is the new kid on the block in the Southern Asian strategic landscape — challenging American hegemony in the region, willing to build peace and mine minerals in Afghanistan, pushing India into a tight corner in its own traditional backyard, and selling dreams of interregional connectivity and economic prosperity to a conflict-ridden, impoverished and underlinked region. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s bold declaration at the recently-concluded 19th Party Congress that China intends to emerge stronger in the world stage indicates its new geopolitical resolve.
There is only so far the U.S. can ignore China’s overtures, and there is only so much India can do to match the Chinese sales pitch. The dividends are already in sight. For instance, China is emerging as a key player in Afghanistan. The potential revival of the Quadrilateral Coordination Group (comprising U.S., China, Pakistan and Afghanistan) shows just that. It’s a matter of time before the U.S. utilises China’s potential to serve its interests in Afghanistan. After all, national interests matter above all else.
Mr. Ghani stated last week that Afghanistan would not join the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor if Pakistan refuses to permit connectivity between India and Afghanistan. New Delhi must appreciate Mr. Ghani for being a true friend, but let’s be realistic: Pakistan is unlikely to allow overland connectivity between Afghanistan and India through its territory, nor will Mr. Ghani jeopardise Afghanistan’s relationship with China by insisting on bringing India on board.
Clearly, the emerging geopolitical landscape in the region requires deft handling by New Delhi. It should consider participating in Afghan peace talks while being conscious of its redlines and ability vis-à-vis Afghanistan. New Delhi should stick to its decision not to send troops to Afghanistan while at the same time enhancing its training of Afghan security forces and reconstruction efforts.
