This is officially my first (non-intro) Steemit post, so I’m pretty excited!
Outside of anything crypto related, my passion for the last several years (10+) has been fantasy sports. In particular, I’ve basically fallen in love with daily fantasy sports (DFS) and everything it has to offer to the fantasy addict. Steemit is about content, so why not post some fantasy sports content!
For myself, I generally enjoy smaller tournaments and cash style games. I’ve had most success playing in the single entry type tournaments and the 1-100 player contests. I don’t do mass entry (although I’ve tried – maybe another article) and thus stay away from the large GPPs.
For this first article, we are going to explore tonight’s NBA slate. To keep it simple, I’ve basically split the article between CORE and VALUE plays. CORE plays, as it sounds, are the players I believe are best to build around. VALUE plays are players that offer a decent return on investment but that fall below $5,000 (NBA). Please note that ownership % is not necessarily built into my plays, but is something you should consider.
All pricing will be based off Fanduel’s settings, as this is currently my favorite platform.
Enjoy and please comment with thoughts and suggestions.
NBA DFS - Friday, 3/16/2018
Tonight we are looking at a smaller 6-game slate. As of this writing, your highest game O/U totals include LA Clippers at Oklahoma City (223), Miami at LA Lakers (220), and Brooklyn at Philadelphia (217.5). In my opinion, it’s not the greatest night for some NBA DFS but I’ve decided to do some research and play, so why not share it with the community. For one, we are approaching the end of the NBA season, so you’re seeing a lot of odd minutes by players with rest and injuries and teams doing odd things to lineups/minutes with young players (tanking). This always makes it a little more difficult and risky, so I’m not going to heavy. Personally, because of these reasons I will likely only be playing small (3-100) style tournaments, trying to build up some bankroll for the start of the MLB season. NOTE: KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LAST MINUTE LINEUP CHANGES.PEOPLE GET CRUSHED NOT PAYING ATTENTION TOWARDS THE END OF A SEASON.
CORE
1. Draymond Green ($7,800) – PF (GSW) vs. Kings
I'm going to be pretty honest here, matchup aside, this pick is pretty easy. Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, and Klay Thompson are all OUT tonight for the Warriors. Rotogrinder's has a really nice CourtIQ program that will detail a player's usage rate with certain players on/off the court. Interestingly enough, Draymond's usage doesn't really change with all those guys off the court, but Can't imagine going anywhere else tonight. The over/under is low for a home game in Golden State for obvious reasons but Draymond should get his. He is my #1 core play tonight, but be fair warned, on a short Friday night slate, I'm sure he will be highly owned. Just play him and be happy.
2. Russell Westbrook ($12,100) – PG (OKC) vs. Clippers
It's Russell Westbrook, I mean come on, what other explanation do I need? Well, being that this is an unusually short slate for a Friday night, we aren't left with many true superstars to look at. Although I don't love the play, it seems like he is the best we have at the top. The bad: his price is pretty high compared to recent production and he has only hit value (fantasy points = 5x salary) 4-5 times since February first. The good: we know he is going to play at least 35 minutes, OKC has the highest implied team total, LAC at OKC is the highest over/under on the slate, his usage is always high, he is coming off 2 days of rest, and this should be one of the highest if not highest pace game tonight. Couple that with the fact that the Clippers are no better than middle of the pack vs. the PG position and tonight sets up nice for Westbrook. It's worth noting that at the time of publishing this content, Paul George is questionable for OKC. If he sits, I like Westbrook even more as my #1 core play this evening.
3. Julius Randle ($7,400) – PF (LAL) vs Heat
Randle has been one of the Laker's best performers over the last couple weeks in terms of fantasy production. It's not the most ideal matchup as the Heat are a top 5 team vs. the PF portion according to the guys over at NumberFire, but the Heat are a bit banged up right now and missing some of their key big men. Randle has been getting big minutes since early February and has reached value nearly every game out. Just a few weeks ago Randle put up 40 FanDuel points vs. the Heat and playing in a game with the highest over/under tonight, he should do much of the same. At just $7,400 I expect Randle to meet expectations tonight and deliver for us.
4. Jayson Tatum ($6,600) SF (BOS) at Magic
The Celtics are riddle with injury right now and will be without the service of Irving, Smart, and Brown tonight. Although listed at SF, last time out, Tatum got the nod at SG. It's pretty common knowledge these days that Orlando is pretty atrocious defending guards, so I like the spot Tatum is in tonight. I also really like Terry Rozier who should lead in minutes and play PG, but if we are considering price, Tatum has to be my man. What stands out the most is that Tatum played 46 minutes last game (although overtime) which at the very least shows that the Celtics are relying on him to continue to play big minutes until they are healthy. Match + price, I really like Tatum tonight for a core play.
VALUE
1. Bam Adebayo ($3,900) – PF (MIA) at Lakers
BAM......I just picked Adebayo so I could say that, lol. Bam is one of the better value plays on the board tonight as he has started the last 3 games for MIA due to injuries and players sitting. His price has actually dropped almost $400 and all we really need is a solid 22+ points from him tonight to meet value. He has averaged around 23-25 minutes per start and tonight plays in an up tempo, low-defense game against the Lakers who are ranked 24th against the PF position according to NumberFire. Good matchup, cheap price, and almost assured 20 minutes of playing time makes BAM a good value play across the board tonight.
2. Nick Young & Andre Iguodala ($4,700 & $4,000) – SG & SF (GSW) vs. Kings
As mentioned, literally the entire starting squad is out for the Warriors tonight. That opens up a ton of value from typical bench players. Two big names to target are Young and Iguodala. Both should see big minutes with all of the injuries and are coming in at really cheap prices. I would probably favor Young, price aside, since he got the last start and played over 30 minutes and delivered. His price has gone up considerably but if he maintains similar usage, we should have no problem reaching value. The only warning is that Young is a shooter and can be very streaky. Iguodala offers you $$$ savings and likely more consistency if he gets the minutes. That is the big if here, but with all these injuries, I don't see how he doesn't play. It's worth noting that based on CourtIQ, Young is the biggest beneficiary with all of these players off the court, where his usage rate rise to 30% (over 11% difference from when Steph and the gang are healthy).
3. James Johnson ($4,700) – PF (MIA) at Lakers
You can see a reoccurring theme here is injury = opportunity = value. That holds true here with Johnson, who directly benefits from Whiteside's injury. Although listed at the PF position, he is playing considerable time at C with Whiteside out and tonight should be no different. A decent player who should return value tonight if he gets the minutes in an up tempo, higher scoring game, I like Johnson.
Thanks for reading. Hope you enjoyed and keep an eye out for injury news.
