We are back at it again everyone!
I'm really excited to get back into the mix tonight as we have some really intriguing games to follow including new pitchers in new parks, the Red Sox / Yankees rivalry series, and much more. That being said, the FD Rotogrinders Single Entry Series is still ongoing (albeit $100 entry this week), so make sure you check that out. Enjoy the article and let me know your thoughts on tonights action.
If you are to my blog or daily fantasy sport in general, I enoucrage you to check out the introduction to one of my previous DFS posts as it provides some context to what these articles are about and how to utilize them to your advantage. I also put together a pretty in-depth article explaining DFS in general.
Photo Courtesy of TribLive.com
This article will focus on tonight's large main slate of games. Your top 3 highest implied team totals as of this writing include Texas Rangers (6.3), Minnesota Twins (5.43), and Washington Nationals (5.41). The bottom feeders according to Vegas include Atlanta Braves (3.23), San Francisco Giants (3.3), and Toronto Blue Jays (3.52). Its shaping up to be a great night with some challenging picks. We are looking at a large 14-game slate which should push down ownership overall allowing us to focus mainly on the best spots. Confidence level 7/10
I am again going to be pretty limited on pitching tonight as I'm just not really liking more than a couple guys. In all cases of DFS, but most importantly with starting pitchers, please pay attention to the weather developments as we get closer to games. I cannot tell you how many times my guys have ruined my night because of weather.
Chris Archer - $9,000
Archer makes his debut with the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight at home in PNC Park against the St. Louis Cardinals. As a native to Pittsburgh, I can tell you there is a ton of hype around the city so I expect this game to be awesome. Yes, this recommendation is coming as a bit of homer but there is some legit justification. It seems as though the Cardinals have somewhat packed it in on the year and although they weren’t full blown sellers at the deadline, they did nothing to improve their team and shipped out Tommy Pham.
Outside of Matt Carpenter, who quite literally has been the hottest hitter in baseball for a little over a month now, the Cardinals don’t offer much in terms of offense, especially against right handed pitchers. For 2018, St. Louis ranks 23rdin baseball vs. right handers with a team wRC+ of 92, wOBA of .308, and ISO of .149. They also rank 15th overall in strikeout % with a 22.1% rate. Nothing, outside of Carpenter, really scares me about this lineup. Guys like DeJone, Carpenter, and Gyorko all offer a strikeout rate above 22% vs. right handers this year and hopefully we get Bader in the lineup who has a horrendous 32% rate on the season.
Archer, on the other hand, has been up and down this year for Tampa Bay. From a non-technical perspective, I look at it this way. Archer was rumored to be traded for years. He has been playing on a below average team and admitted he felt they weren’t concerned about winning. He also played in the AL East which is just loaded with offensive talent. Now he is switching to an NL team where he gets to face pitchers batting 1-2x, a team that is looking to win and stay in contention, and will be pitching in PNC Park, one of the most pitcher friendly parks in MLB. It’s a complete shift for the better for Archer, one that I think will work out in his favor sooner rather than later. Like the city, I expect he will be hyped up tonight to prove himself and show the team made the right choice in trading for him. For 2018, Archer is sporting a healthy 25% strikeout rate, along with a 3.63 FIP and xFIP. His ERA on the year sits at 4.31 and in comparison with his FIP and xFIP, I suspect positive regression is coming. Left handers have a wOBA of .348 against Archer while right handers stand at .312 wOBA. Over his last 40 innings with Tampa, Archer much improved and posted a 2.70 ERA.
I expect big things from Archer both as a fan of Pittsburgh and from a DFS spot tonight. He sits at just 9k on FD, so grab him while he remains under 10k in my opinion. Tonight he should prove to Pittsburgh the trade was worth the price and shut-down the heavy right handed Cardinals lineup.
Jake Odorizzi - $7,000
I would be straying too far away from Archer tonight but if you are looking for a cheap alternative, I do have some interest in Odorizzi pitching at home vs. the Kansas City Royals. To be perfectly honest with you, I tested my hand with Odorizzi a few times earlier this year and got burned almost every time, so I don’t have much faith in the man personally. However, this pick is more about the matchup than the man himself, as he gets to face off against the Kansas City Royals who just are flat out not a threatening offense.
Kansas City for the year ranks towards the bottom of baseball in almost every important major statistic vs. right handers. They rank 27thin wRC+ (82), 28thin wOBA (.295), and 27thin ISO (.137). The only downside is that they don’t strikeout much at just 19.9%, good for 26thoverall. Now, keep in mind, this a 2018 season total perspective vs. right handers and if you paid attention to the trade deadline, you should have noticed they just traded away their biggest left handed stick in Moustakas, leaving them a huugggge void in left handed power. I can’t imagine they will improve much without him in their lineup, in fact, I don’t know who a pitcher would even be scared of in their current lineup.
As mentioned, Odorizzi isn’t the greatest pitcher in the world but the last time he faced this club he posted a respectable 6 inning, 1 run, 8 strikeout performance, good for 43 FD points. He owns a .370 wOBA / 22% K rate to left handers and .325 wOBA / 26% K rate to right handers on the year. The long ball is disappointing as he gives up a 1.94 HR/9 rate to left handers and .96 HR/9 rate to right handers. At just $7,000, if you are looking to save money for some big bats, Odorizzi might be your man, but be warned, this is about matchup and recent performance more so than talent. If you are playing multiple lineups, it might be wise to hedge against him in 1-lineup, just in case he is…..you know……..Odorizzi.
Jacob deGrom - $11,500
If your not looking to play Archer or spend way down and risk it with Odorizzi tonight, I believe your best stud pitching option is deGrom. He comes in with the highest price tag on FD tonight with good reason as he has been one of the best and most consistent pitchers in all of baseball. deGrom pitches against the Atlanta Braves tonight at home in a matchup Vegas seems to be siding with him. He is a -126 favorite and the Braves are projected the lowest team total tonight at only 3.23.
deGrom's stats don't need much explanation. He simply dominates everyone. For the season, deGrom is sporting a 2.83 xFIP with a 30% strikeout rate. He doesn't give up the long (.46 HR/9) and without much wiggle room has a better wOBA (.226) and strikeout rate (30%) at home vs. on the road.
The only issue I have with him outside of pricing, is the fact he is facing the Atlanta Braves who are having a great season all around. They are stacked with young talented bats from both sides of the plate and have been hitting the ball all season. deGrom has had success against Atlanta, including 2x this year already, where he has posted 14 innings, 2 earned runs, and 15 strikeouts across 2 starts. The other issue is that the Mets suck, so its always a challenge for him to get the win, no matter how long into the game he pitchers. He is probably the safest recommendation I can give today and the highest floor pitcher. I do think Archer, if on, can equal him in production when you count for a win, so in my opinion, I will be fading deGrom for the savings in Archer. However, if you are playing cash games or looking for safety, this is your play.
Tonight is tough, to be honest. There are some elite stacks such as Boston facing great pitching. The saying goes great pitching beats great hitting but when you are talking Red Sox, Yankees, and the likes, its hard to see it from that perspective. That being said, I will be focusing on the below mentioned stacks but will for sure be attempting to squeeze in some of these higher priced bats such as Boston into the lineup.
Washington Nationals (5.41 Run Total)
The Nationals are on fire right now. They believe they can climb their way back into playoff contention and quite frankly, on paper they have the roster to go as high as they want. It’s as simple as that and I love riding the hot steaks as long as possible. A good example, the Indians and Pirates were on fire for pretty much all of July. If you just rode those two teams, night in and night out, you probably would have won a ton of money. I’m about to try that theory out on the Washington Nationals. If we focus on the last 14 days, the Nationals rank in the top 10 in wRC+ (125), wOBA (.358), and ISO (.214) vs. right handed pitchers.
More so, they face off tonight at home vs. Anthony DeSclafani who has not been very good in 2018. Albeit a limited sample size of only about 25 total innings, DeSclafani has struggled mightily vs. left handed bats of which the Nationals are loaded with. For 2018, DeSclafani vs. left handers is sporting a .409 wOBA, 18% K-rate, and 3.86 HR/9 rate which is all backed by his 5.03 xFIP. Just not good by any measure. If we focus on his career number (about 200+ innings), the numbers do slightly improve but not by much. He still has a .356 wOBA vs. left handers along with a high HR/9 rate of 1.66 alongside a not so good 4.27 xFIP. As of this writing, the Nationals have a 5.44 team implied run total for this evening and I’m sure the big left handed bats in their lineup are looking to strike tonight vs. DeSclafani.
Texas Rangers (6.3 Run Total)
Another team that has been hot over the last few days is the Texas Rangers. Although they have been much of a letdown for most of this season, I do always like them at home in Arlington when it’s hot out. The ball just fly’s in that Texas heat and in certain good matchups, you can stack the Rangers. The team total of 6.3 should say enough, but be warned.........they will be extremely owned on FD which may pave the wave for a fade.
Tonight they face off against Orioles young right handed pitcher David Hess. We again are dealing with a limited sample size as this is his 1stseason in the big leagues but what stats we do have are encouraging from a stack against perspective. His left/right splits for the season include a .373 / .352 wOBA, 14.8% / 12.2%, 2.19 / 1.78 HR/9 rate, and 5.69 / 6.40 xFIP. To be honest, every single one of those numbers is a red flag for me when evaluating a pitcher to stack against, meaning the matchup looks great to attack. Like the Nationals, the Rangers over the last 14 days have been hitting very well, ranking top 10 in wRC+, wOBA, and ISO vs. right handed pitching. I’m a little less confident on the Rangers, but they certainly are in a great spot, hitting well lately, and are a pretty reasonable priced stacked overall for this evening.
Cleveland Indians (5.26 Run Total)
One thing I have loved this season is the low ownership that the Cleveland Indians seem to garnish each and every night. This is undeserving as they are one of more potent offensives in all of baseball. So when we have a night where no one, literally no one is talking about Cleveland as a stack, that’s when I consider them, almost regardless of matchup.
Tonight they face off at home against Jaime Barria, a decent right hander for the LA Angels. Barria has pitched pretty well this season for the Angels and by the numbers, seems to be more of a reverse splits guy. His left/right splits include a .241 / .397 wOBA, 20% / 16% K-rate, .69 / 2.63 HR/9 rate, and 3.89 / 5.62 xFIP. As you can see, he does struggle vs. right handers a lot more. Unfortunately, this is his first big league season so we don’t have must more than the 80 or so innings he has logged this year to really determine if he is a reverse splits guy but so far in 2018, it has held pretty true. The Indians lineup has been clutch all year, ranking top 10 in wRC+, wOBA, and ISO (4th) vs. right handers. The Indians also excel at home and are one of the best offenses when considering home/road splits. You can play a nice 1-4, 2-5, 3-6 stack tonight and get a variety of left and right bats to attack Barria and expect super super low ownership. The Indians have a great implied team run total, seem to always excel at home, and are facing an unproven pitcher. All of this and they should go under-owned, making them one of my favorite stacks of the night. The only issue is their main players are super expensive but that should only play more into them not being overly owned.
Thats about all I have for today. As mentioned, there are some great bats tonight to try to fit in with the above mentioned stacks but for the most part, this article should have you covered. Good luck tonight and lets win some money!
