Happy Friday Everybody,
We have a lot going on in the sports world right now making DFS all the more exciting. Baseball season is starting to come down to the last 1/4 of the season and teams that are in contention are all the more fired up. We also have football starting around the country and if you are daring enough you could even get into some preseason NFL DFS. Thats not my thing but hey, if you enjoy it, have at it.
Tonight we have a nice slate of MLB games to consider for DFS. As I mentioned, being that we are approaching the end of the season, things become oddly more difficult. Teams that are not in contention are starting not only slacking at times but you see weird lineups and new, minor league call-ups. Once September hits, MLB rosters expand and we will have so many unknown players to sort through. In any case, my strategy towards the end of most seasons is to focus on the teams that have something to lose. Teams in contention and battling it out. Not only do you expect to get max effort out of the team but you have a little more predictability regarding lineups. That being said, enjoy the article and plays below. Please comment with any ideas, suggestions, or anything else you might want to contribute.
If you are to my blog or daily fantasy sport in general, I enoucrage you to check out the introduction to one of my previous DFS posts as it provides some context to what these articles are about and how to utilize them to your advantage. I also put together a pretty in-depth article explaining DFS in general.
This article will focus on tonight's large main slate of games. Your top 3 highest implied team totals as of this writing include Cleveland Indians (6.27), Texas Rangers (5.69), and Washington Nationals (5.58). The bottom implied run teams according to Vegas include Miami Marlins (2.42), Baltimore Orioles (2.73), and New York Mets (3.28). Its shaping up to be a great night with some challenging picks. Its a pretty typical 14-game Friday slate which always helps with ownership. Outside of the Indians, ownership levels should be pretty in check tonight. Confidence level 7/10.
There are a few interesting guys out there tonight to consider but for me, personally, I am likely paying up for the main man and Cy-Young front runner. However, other guys such as Robbie Ray and Cole Hamels make for intriguing plays at their price point.
Max Scherzer - $12,200
I'm sorry, this one is pretty obvious, but Scherzer is just the most clear cut starter you can have on a slate given both who he is and the matchup. Forget the fact the Marlins are one of the lowest projected teams tonight in terms of runs scored, Scherzer is in line for the Cy-Young this year while dominating pretty much every lineup he has faced. Just a few weeks ago (7/27) Scherzer tossed 8 scoreless innings against this lineup with 11 total strikeouts for a FanDuel total of 67. Now, he does have a couple hiccups against the Marlins this year, most notably the 5/25 and 7/7 games where he gave up 4-runs in each but he lasted at least 6 innings in each game and is your safest bet tonight. With the Nationals also projected as a top scoring team, I have no problem eating the chalk tonight if that happens to be Scherzer. He is pretty much a 100% all lineup guy for me tonight with the only hesitation being you likely cannot combine him with a Cleveland stack due to pricing.
Scherzer has pretty much dominated the Marlins for most of his career but if you are looking for numbers, here they are. The Marlins rank towards the bottom of the league in most stats vs. right handers for 2018. They sport a 83 wRC+, .293 wOBA, and .122 ISO along with a 22.5% strikeout rate. There is nothing to suggest they have been better recently either as they fall to almost dead last in advanced stats if you focus on the last 30 days with a 57 wRC+, .254 wOBA, and .100 ISO. Scherzer on the other hand has just elite stats in 2018 holding batters to a .256/.234 left/right wOBA split in addition to a .83/.99 HR/9 rate and awesome 32%/37% strikeout rate. Just elite vs. a bad team that has only been worse over the last month or so. Lock and load Scherzer with complete confidence today.
Carlos Carrasco - $11,000
If your trying to save a couple bucks but still want an elite arm, I believe your next best option is Carlos Carrasco pitching at home tonight vs. Baltimore. I would imagine that Carrasco will also be lower owned than Scherzer and to a degree offers similar upside but at a lower price point. There is a lot to like about Carrasco tonight. He has pitched well all season, especially of late and has the highest projected win % tonight with Cleveland leading all teams in implied team total. Baltimore, similar to Miami, is one of the lowest implied team totals tonight, sporting a 2.73 implied team total vs. the 6.27 expected out of the Indians.
The Orioles have been pretty bad this year and their lineup has only gotten worse since the trade of Machado and Schoop. There are still some decent names in the lineup including Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo but so far this year, they haven't offered much. In fact, I recently saw an article that Chris Davis, once one of the more scary hitters in the AL, is on pace to have the worst season in MLB history for a hitter. I'm not sure how that is calculated but that just goes to show how bad this team has been. For 2018, vs. right handed pitching, Baltimore has a 94 wRC+ (ranked 20th), .310 wOBA (23rd), and .172 ISO (8th). They aren't as bad as Miami, especially when considering power, which is one of the main reasons I favor Scherzer. However, they do offer more strikeout potential with a 24% k-rate for 2018. Believe it or not, Baltimores numbers have actually improved when you consider the last 30 days alone. They actually rank #1 in all of baseball vs. right handers with a 145 wRC+ while also sporting a top of the line .385 wOBA and .222 ISO. Their strikeout rate has also dropped within the last 30 days to 22%. I'm not sure if this will last but as you can see, I favor Scherzer simply based on the consistency of Miami and by that I mean they have been bad all year including the last 30 days. Baltimore somehow has shown some life but Carrasco makes a great pivot play off Scherzer if you want to still pay up for pitching. Carrasco for 2018 sports a .303/.284 wOBA (right/left) with a 29%/27% strikeout rate.
Trevor Williams - $6,300
Alright this one is a bit wild, I have to admit. As I mentioned in the opening, there are some intriguing plays out there that I believe are probably priced a little too low such as Cole Hamels and Robbie Ray. So please, do your research on them before jumping after this Williams play. My theory here is simple. I am paying up for Scherzer. Period. If not, its because I am trying to fit a full blown Cleveland Indians stack and to do that I need to save on pitching. So I'm heading way way way down the price list and finding Trevor Williams who has pitched straight up unbelievable over his last 5 starts. Like, I'm not even kidding, you have to check out the numbers. Over his last 5 starts, Williams has pitched 29 innings, given up 2 earned runs, with 14 strikeouts. Yes, it is a fact your can't expect too many strikouts with this guy. But for a mere $6,300 your pretty much riding the hot hand who has gotten you 6-7 innings consistently for a quality start and possibly a win.
The matchup for Williams isn't ideal tonight vs. the Chicago Cubs. But to be honest, the Cubs haven't been that impressive this year offensively. Furthermore, Williams is pitching at home in PNC tonight, a pitchers park. Regression may be coming and I could be completely wrong on this call but again, Im looking towards the bottom of the barrel for a play that fits my Cleveland Indians stack. Oh, and I forgot to mention, Williams faced the Cubs earlier this season and went 6 innings, 5 strikeouts, with 1 earned for a 40 FanDuel point performance. Can it happen again? Maybe. Nova pitched well last night vs. the Cubs, so why can't Williams?
The Cubs have been good but not spectacular this year, especially vs. right handers. They sport a 103 wRC+, .329 wOBA, .160 ISO, and 21% strikeout rate. They have been slightly worse over the last 30 days where their wRC+ drops to 91 along with a .309 wOBA, and .146 ISO. This play is very risky but thats the point right? I highly recommend going all in on Scherzer but if you are looking to go straight to the bottom, consider Trevor Williams who I believe has a solid floor, especially for the price.
Rain looks to be really bad in Pittsburgh. Not worth the risk on an already risky pitching. If you are looking for savings, I am moving towards Brian Johnson (Boston) at home vs. Tampa Bay for $6,400.
Cleveland Indians (6.27 Run Total)
I've talked about them a few times tonight but if I had to pick a obvious favorite for stacking, its the Cleveland Indians. Their run total alone is enough to rank them as a top stack but they get to tee off tonight at home vs. a very weak David Hess for Baltimore. Cleveland has been one of the best home teams in terms of offense in 2018. Overall for 2018, Cleveland has averaged an impressive 5.13 runs per game as a team, ranked 2nd only behind Boston. They have also scored the 2nd most runs at home this year ranked only behind Texas, a very hitters friendly park.
Their mound opponent, David Hess, has been anything but impressive. Over his last 5 starts, Hess has given up 16 runs in 17 innings with very few strikeouts. Although he doesn't have a lot of innings to work with, Hess sports a .371/.362 (left/right) wOBA, 2.43/1.84 HR/9, 15%/13% K-rate, and 5.79/6.40 xFIP. All red flags in my book and someone I would love to attack with any team especially a team like Cleveland. The Indians rank top 5 in almost every advanced batting stat vs. right handers. These stats have held true over the last 30 days only more supporting their impressive hitting. I love Cleveland tonight as a slack but as mentioned, it will be very difficult to get them in as a full stack with Scherzer. You may have to pick and choose select players and/or go with a bottom of the order stack.
Texas Rangers (5.69 Run Total)
Another team ranking towards the top of implied team run totals tonight is the Texas Rangers. They haven't been the greatest baseball team this year in general but they have hit the ball well all year at home. Hot nights in Texas can leave Arlington as one of the best hitting environments in all of baseball and tonight is no exception.
The Rangers face off against a guy by the name of Odrisamer Despaigne (good luck pronouncing that one) who has been mostly a bullpen guy this year for the Angels. One thing is for certain, the Angels bullpen hasn't been that great this year and now they are bringing a guy out of it to start. Oh my, this could be a good one. The guy has 4-5 years of MLB experience now and if we look at his career numbers, you can start to see why the Rangers have such a high implied team total. Despaigne sports a .339/.308 (left/right) wOBA, 11%/17% k-rate, and 5.04/4.22 xFIP. The only downside is that his HR/9 numbers for his career aren't really that bad, sitting at .74/.88. However, that could easily change tonight in Arlington. The Rangers have hit right handers this year pretty decent but nothing to write home about, ranking in the top half of teams in most advanced stats. However, over the last 30 days, the Rangers have been hot with a 131 wRC+ (ranked 3rd), .370 wOBA (3rd), and .222 ISO (4th). For a lower cost stack that could fit with Scherzer, I have my money on the Rangers tonight.
LA Angels (5.31 Run Total)
On the other side of the Texas game you have the LA Angels who come in to tonights action with a decent 5.31 implied team total. They too are hitting in the heat of Texas tonight and facing what I would consider is an equally weak pitcher in Drew Hutchison. The Angels also have the benefit of being an away team and for strategy purposes, away teams are always preferred if possible due to the fact they are guaranteed a 9th inning at bat.
What has struck me about the Angels is how well they have been hitting as a team without Trout over the last 30 days. Unfortunately, the Angels aren't really competing for too much right now but nonetheless, their numbers have been impressive vs. right handers. Over the last 30 days they rank 2nd in all of baseball with a 141 wRC+ and .374 wOBA. More so, they rank 1st in ISO at .228. Yes, these numbers are up compared to their yearly totals but not by much. Interestingly, LAA has been a pretty good team vs. right handers all season, ranking top 5 in most advanced stats. Missing Trout surely would hurt this but so far, not really. Their opponent Drew Hutchison isn't that great. He has a very limited but very poor sample size this year but for his career he has a .346/.338 (left/right) wOBA along with a 1.38/1.27 HR/9. Those numbers won't work in Arlington and I expect a shootout tonight between the two teams. A bit more contrarian than Texas, look to the Angels tonight as a good stack vs. a bad pitcher.
Other Notes:
No one seems to be talking about Boston and/or the Yankees tonight which is always a great play when no one is on them. Either of those teams can put up big numbers regardless of who they are facing and could offer some upside on tonights slate.
Hope you enjoyed. Lets have some fun and win some money!
