Hey Fellow Fantasy Nerds,
We have another Friday night slate to conquer this evening so lets gear up with some top plays. As it looks for the moment, there aren't really any major weather concerns but do we have the always famous game in Colorado. If having a game at Coors Field wasn't enough, tonight's slate includes several aces on the mound, so we should be in for a fun one. These are always my favorite slates simply because ownership isn't necessarily a concern. It will be spread pretty evenly with all the major pitchers and high implied run total games.
If you are to my blog or daily fantasy sport in general, I enoucrage you to check out the introduction to one of my previous DFS posts as it provides some context to what these articles are about and how to utilize them to your advantage. I also put together a pretty in-depth article explaining DFS in general.
This article will focus on tonight's main slate of games. Not counting the teams in Colorado, your top 3 highest implied team totals tonight include Houston Astros (5.31), Boston Red Sox (5.19), and St. Louis Cardinals (5.12). The bottom 3 lowest implied team totals include Chicago White Sox (2.81), San Francisco Giants (3.15), and Atlanta Braves (3.26). Confidence level 7/10.
As much as it may be to your surprise (I hope not), the above picture of Matt Harvey serves not as a guy we are playing tonight but rather attacking. I just though the yawning Matt Harvey picture perfectly captured his last year plus of horrendous pitching lol.
Originally I was high on J.A. Happ tonight hosting the Baltimore Orioles mainly because the Orioles, no matter how you slice it, simply suck vs. left handers in 2018. I checked all season team stats in addition to last 7, 14, and 30 day stats. In every situation, Baltimore is a bottom 3 vs. left handers. However, with the lineups for that game released, Baltimore is employing a full right handed lineup. Literally every single bat in the lineup is a right hander. I don't care how good J.A. Happ is, a lineup like that is tough to work with. Not that I think he will get crushed but I just don't see it being an easy labor free day. There is also the part that traditionally the right handed bats such as Schoop, Jones, Machado, and Trumbo do hit lefties well, just not so much this year. It sucks, because I liked him but I am fully off him now. In any case, these are the guys I will focus on. Be warned, its not a cheap pitcher night for me.
Trevor Bauer - $10,200
As far as I can tell, no one is talking about Bauer tonight, which I love. The price tag is a little higher than I really ever want to pay for Bauer on FD but hey, he is having a legitimately great season. Over the last year, Bauer is sporting a left/right .332/.298 wOBA split to go along with a 25%/30% strikeout rate. His xFIP supports his great season sitting at 3.98/3.1.
Detroit on the other hand isn't have such a great season. Plagued with injuries, the Tigers have struggled virtually against everyone. When isolating their numbers against right handed pitchers only, we are looking at a 87 wRC+ (ranked 24th MLB), .301 wOBA (26th), and .145 ISO (22nd). They dont offer much in terms of strikeout % at 21% but nonetheless having proven to be a pretty weak lineup that you can trust most legit pitchers against. I have a good bit of confidence in Bauer tonight, even with some major bats coming back from injury in the Detroit lineup.
Chris Sale - $11,500
In an odd way, Chris Sale is not the most expensive pitcher tonight but he nonetheless remains expensive. He would be my #1 pick tonight outside of the fact he has actually struggled a bit recently and home games in Boston isn't the most pitcher friendly park. Specially, Sale is coming off two pretty poor outings with not many strikeouts and FD totals of 19 and 24. However, he faced Houston on the road who are just simply loaded with right handed leftie killers and faced Atlanta at home who surprisingly leads all of MLB in almost every major category vs. left handed pitchers. So lets chalk those games up to just really tough opponents. Sales stats pretty much speak for themselves. He is an elite strikeout ace sporting a 32%/26% left/right split rate coupled with a .244/.266 wOBA split over the last year.
Tonight's opponent is quite the opposite of the last two. Sale takes the mound against the Chicago White Sox who have really struggled all year vs. left handers. For 2018, the White Sox vs. left handed pitching rank 24th in MLB in wRC+ at a measly 88 along with a .300 wOBA (ranked 24th), and .168 ISO (14th). Most importantly, the White Sox strikeout 28% of the time vs. left handers, the highest in all of baseball. There is also a bit of a storyline as Chicago is Sales former team that traded him to Boston. Sale is a huge favorite tonight and without question should go and grab a quality start and win. The matchup is juicy, the stats support him, Vegas loves him, and it's a bit of a revenge game. Go Sale..............
There are a bunch of ways to go tonight with stacks. Remember, we do have a game in Colorado which can go off on any given night. If you haven't noticed, I tend to fade these games unless there is a compelling reason not too. Tonight is no different, the Rockies will be facing Greinke who is a legit star pitcher (at least at times) and the Diamondbacks have literally sucked all year vs. right handed pitching. I likely will just hand select a few players to get some exposure but by large will not be stacking either team.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are my favorite stack tonight as they are home favorites with a nice Vegas total against Dylan Covey of the White Sox. Boston has been elite all year vs. right handed pitching and tonight lineup against a pretty weak right hander. Specifically, the Red Sox rank 1st in MLB in wRC+, wOBA, and ISO vs. right handers will only striking out 19% of the time (ranked 29th). Covey on the other hand hasn't been all that impressive. He has a split wOBA of .358/.391 with a low strikeout rate split of 17%/14%. He also is giving up a lot of HRs with a split rate of 1.79/2.11 HR/9. The xFIP is also just as bad sitting at 4.7/5.43. Albeit he has only about 100 total innings over the last year or so, the Red Sox should have no trouble tonight. The only concern is that Betts and possibly JD Martinez will be out of the lineup. However, I am most intrigued by their left handed bats.
Toronto Blue Jays
I am really liking Toronto tonight. For a team that has shown basically middle of the line advanced numbers all season vs. right handed pitching, they possess sneaky power coming in to tonights contest ranked 5th overall in MLB with an ISO of .177 vs. right handers. To me, that means, if you can get them in a nice matchup with a below average pitcher that gives up a lot of fly balls and juicy HR/9 numbers, you could capitalize on that top tier power. Andrew Cashner is just the guy to attack. Although his numbers aren't super terrible over the last year (HR/9 split of 1.32/.73), if you look at just 2018, he could be in some serious trouble tonight. For 2018, Cashner has a HR/9 split of 1.98/1.07. Just terrible. He also has a fly ball rate of 48% in 2018 to lefties. Not good if that trend continues tonight. I really like the Blues as a bit of a cheaper alternative to the Red Sox. Make sure you focus on the left handed bats in the Toronto lineup.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are also in a great spot tonight taking on Matt Harvey in Cincinnati. Harvey just continues to struggle, even with his new team the Reds. The numbers just aren't good for him over the last year and if you watch of his games, you can just see he isn't the same pitcher as in the past. He possess a left/right split wOBA of .420/.323 along with a HR/9 split of 1.74/1.26. His xFIP continues to climb and currently sits at 5.82/4.32. Clearly left handers are having their way with but in general you can attack him with whomever. Stick to the main bats of the St. Louis lineup but if anything make sure you get some exposure to Matt Carpenter who has been heating up as of late.
Thats it. I'm pretty narrowed down for tonight. Good luck building lineups tonight as it is a bit difficult with the expensive pitchers. Try to find some value plays such as Joc Pederson and Curtis Granderson who can help you fit stacks along with the high priced pitching. Let me know if you have any other ideas or suggestions for tonight in the comments below. Until next time, good luck and lets with some money!
