Welcome Back To Another Saturday of Baseball,
We have another exciting Saturday full of baseball again, both early games and late games. This article will be a bit abbreviated as I had a pretty busy morning and want to get this article out as early as possible so that everyone has a chance to review and set lineups. It is critically important to pay attention to the weather forecast today as there are many dangerous weather games throughout the country. We have already seen several rain delays this week and today is no exception. So let's get right to and try to win some money tonight in MLB DFS!
If you are new to my blog, these articles are meant to provide you with good well researched content on fantasy sports, in particular DFS. All of the research is my own and will directly go into my own lineups. Too many people just copy and paste random articles on DFS just for views without much research or reasoning. That’s not what these articles are about. Not only am I giving you my favorite plays but I’m also giving you my reasoning and research to help you make your own decisions. If the article is wrong you can rest assured I lost money, so know that I am relying on exactly what I publish. Time and research is the key to winning and thats the backbone of my articles.
For MLB, I am splitting these articles up into pitching and team stacks, as that is how I play. Personally, I mostly play GPP type tournaments so stacking several players from one team is a strategy I never go without. Stacking (choosing several players from 1 lineup) is a great strategy for MLB DFS that I highly suggest you look into our bread my other articles explaining. All pricing will be based off Fanduel’s settings, as this is currently my favorite platform. Stats are derived primarily from FanGraphs with some random exceptions such as ESPN. If you haven’t already, feel free to follow my referral links and sign up for Fanduel and Draftkings:
Enjoy and please comment with thoughts and suggestions.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports
This article will focus on tonights large 11-game MLB main slate. As mentioned there are several games with major weather concerns, so pay attention because a cancel or even delay can seriously wreck your lineups and all the hard work and money you put in to setting them. The top 3 implied team run totals for tonight include New York Yankees (5.31), Boston Red Sox (5.18), and Atlanta Braves (5.01). Your bottom 3 run totals include Detroit Tigers (2.27), Kansas City Royals (3.19), and New York Mets (3.28).
Overall, I am feeling pretty confident regarding tonights matchups both for pitching and stacks. However, the weather concerns are really making it difficult so overall it may end up being challenging. Confidence level 7/10.
I am really drilled down to just a few guys tonight and am fairly confident based both on their overall abilities and their matchups.
Patrick Corbin - $10,000
My favorite pitcher of the night, Corbin is an a ++ matchup vs. the New York Mets. The Mets haven't been able to hit left handed pitching all year and Corbin is one of the more impressive Southpaws out there for 2018. Game is away from Arizona which makes it all the better. Corbin for the year has posted a left/right split strikeout rate of 31%/22% while the Mets rank as the highest strikeout team vs. left handers in MLB at 27%. Aka, Corbin should easily post a high strikeout performance. The Mets also rank literally dead last vs. left handers in wRC+, wOBA, and ISO, thus making it a cake matchup for the strong left hander.
Luis Severino - $10,500
If I'm not 100% all in on Corbin tonight, I likely pay up a little more for Severino. Severino has been easily the best pitcher of the Yankees this year posting a 2.14 ERA along with 6 wins. He really has been elite all season posting 44 or more FanDuel points 7/9 games this season. He gets to face the Royals tonight who simply are not threatening by any measure. Similar to the Mets but only against right handers, they rank towards the bottom of MLB in wRC+ (ranked 22nd), wOBA (23rd), and ISO (28th). The only issue and one of the reasons I rank Severino below Corbin is that the Royals do not strikeout much. They are the best team in baseball in terms of strikeout % vs. right handers for 2018. Severino is a very very safe play tonight and should dominate but I would prefer Corbin for the strikeout upside.
This will be a bit boring because I am favoring the 3 highest implied run team totals tonight for stacks, although not specifically in the order in which they are projected.
Boston Red Sox
Boston is the premier team on the season vs. right handers. They get to face off against Bundy tonight who is coming into the game with a left right split HR/9 rate of 1.35/1.73 and an xFIP of 4.64/3.99. They are one of the highest projected run lines, vs. a weak home run prone pitcher, and are generally an elite lineup vs. right handers. Take the Red Sox tonight with confidence.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves are also facing a very week Miami pitcher tonight in Urena who enters the game with a split xFIP of 5.74/4.35. The Braves rank as one of the top teams vs. right handers in a number of categories and are loaded with left handed power.
New York Yankees
We all know the type of lineup the Yankees have. They are simply loaded with talent and power and can put up crooked numbers any given night vs. any type of pitcher. Tonight they get a weak left hander if Duffy who enters the game with an xFIP over the last year of 3.78/4.81 as a split. The Yanks on the other hand are lining up with a team ISO vs. left handers of .201 good for second overall in MLB. The only reason I rank them 3rd overall is the fact they are in an extreme pitchers park in Kansas City, otherwise I love the Yanks.
Make sure you check weather tonight. Every team and pitcher I mentioned has some degree of weather concern so it is very very critical to pay attention to how their respective area weather develops. You don't want to get stuck with a postponed lineup or pitcher. Trust me, I have in the past.
Good luck tonight everyone and lets win some money!
