Welcome Back Everyone,
It's a beautiful Saturday all around the country and we have a nice main slate of baseball to run with tonight. I'm excited and so should you be if you plan to play a little DFS tonight. Although we have a couple troubling weather spots to watch out for, there are a couple pitchers I want to make sure I play along with some stackable teams in great spots.
If you are new to my blog, these articles are meant to provide you with good well researched content on fantasy sports, in particular DFS. All of the research is my own and will directly go into my own lineups. Too many people just copy and paste random articles on DFS just for views without much research or reasoning. That’s not what these articles are about. Not only am I giving you my favorite plays but I’m also giving you my reasoning and research to help you make your own decisions. If the article is wrong you can rest assured I lost money, so know that I am relying on exactly what I publish. Time and research is the key to winning and thats the backbone of my articles.
For MLB, I am splitting these articles up into pitching and team stacks, as that is how I play. Personally, I mostly play GPP type tournaments so stacking several players from one team is a strategy I never go without. Stacking (choosing several players from 1 lineup) is a great strategy for MLB DFS that I highly suggest you look into our bread my other articles explaining. All pricing will be based off Fanduel’s settings, as this is currently my favorite platform. Stats are derived primarily from FanGraphs with some random exceptions such as ESPN. If you haven’t already, feel free to follow my referral links and sign up for Fanduel and Draftkings:
Enjoy and please comment with thoughts and suggestions.
This article will focus on tonight's 8 game MLB main slate including a game in Colorado. There are a couple games with weather concerns to watch out for including the Philadelphia game and Pittsburgh game. As of now, your 3 highest implied run totals are Colorado Rockies (5.76), Houston Astros (5.33), and Milwaukee Brewers (5.24). No surprise 2/3 come from the Colorado game at Coors field. The bottom 3 implied team run totals include Texas Rangers (3.17), Philadelphia Phillies (3.42), and Cincinnati Reds (3.61).
This main slate is looking to be a good one. As you will see below, I will be fading both the weather concerned games and the Colorado game, leaving only 5 total games to select from. This has really help narrow down my selections but I am confident in each of them. Confidence level 7.5/10.
There are a couple good pitchers going tonight with great matchups. As mentioned, I am fading the weather risk games which for me includes fading the Mets at Phillies and Giants at Pirates. This completely removes Noah Syndergaard from the conversation, although he is in a + matchup and obviously is an incredible talent. Again, its the weather not the matchup that is forcing me to fade, so pay attention as we get closer to the start of the slate as this could change and Syndergaard is in a great matchup.
Charlie Morton - $9,300
My guy tonight is the former Pirate (still salty) Charlie Morton. The right hander is pitching at home tonight against the struggling Texas Rangers. Morton faced the Rangers earlier this season in April at home and had one of his better pitching performances for the season, fanning 12 Rangers across 6 innings while only giving up 2 earned runs. Morton's career has been completely rejuvenated since he joined the Astros. He has continued to pitch extremely well and I suspect he will continue that trend tonight even though 2nd matchups I believe tend to favor the bats. I suspect he will be chalk tonight but I don't care, that matchup is ++. His worst performances on the season have been 2/3 games, so hopefully that helps with ownership.
Texas has struggled all season. As a lineup, they rank as a bottom tier team vs. right handers. For the season, the Rangers have a awful 80 wRC+ (ranked 30th), .271 wOBA (24th), .156 ISO (18th), and strikeout the 3rd most vs. right handers at 26.3%. Morton on the other hand has been great since last season. His left/right splits include a .244 / .308 wOBA, 34% / 21% strikeout rate, .7 / 1.09 HR/9 rate, and 3.09 / 3.90 xFIP. All indicators support Mortons success as an Astro and everything points to him having little trouble with the Rangers lineup tonight. The Rangers also have the lowest projected run total tonight at 3.17 and Morton is coming in at a the largest Vegas favorite - he should get the win.
Michael Wacha - $8,300
Another talented pitcher in a great matchup tonight is Wacha for the St. Louis Cardinals. There is nothing overly flashy about Wacha but he has delivered steady high end performance for the Cardinals over the last several seasons. The right hander is arguably in the best matchup tonight as faces off against another bottom tier offensive team in the San Diego Padres.
The Padres, like the Rangers, rank bottom of MLB in terms of advanced metrics vs. right handers. For the season, the Padres have a team right handed split of 84 wRC+ (ranked 26th), .288 wOBA (29th), .123 ISO (28th), and strikeout the 2nd most vs. right handed pitchers at 26.8%. Wacha on the other hand has been a very good pitcher for the Cards and the numbers support that claim since the start of last season. He comes into tonights action with a left/right split of .302 / .327 wOBA, 20.1% / 24% strikeout rate, .68 / 1.05 HR/9, and 4.47 / 3.57 xFIP. His numbers certainly aren't as strong as Morton but he saves you $1,000 in salary, should come in at a lower ownership, and is arguably facing a softer team. The only downside to Wacha is he doesn't last long into games and has only pitched more than 6 innings 1x this season (6.2 on 4/20/18). I don't think he has much trouble tonight pitching in away in San Diego, a ballpark favoring pitchers. Wacha also is coming in as an away favorite, further adding to the confidence in playing him tonight.
Michael Soroka - $6,800 (HIGH RISK)
If your looking to play a little off the board tonight and save a ton of salary, the guy I am looking at is Michael Soroka. There is very little information and data on Soroka at the big league level as he has only pitched in 2 games. The first, he did very well shutting down the Mets for a 40 point FanDuel performance. The second, not so well, giving up 4 earned runs across 4 innings vs. a soft Giants lineup. This is a high risk play but something that could allow you to sneak more expensive bats into your lineup. He only pitched a couple years in the minors but overall seems to have been fairly successful, quickly rising through the Braves farm system and making his MLB debut this year.
I always lean towards the pitchers in the best matchups. For me, a matchup can win over the talent of a pitcher and we have that scenario here, although Soroka may be very talented for all we know. The Marlins quite simply suck vs. right handers. Literally the worst team in baseball across a multitude of metrics. Your looking at a team that has a right handed split of 70 wRC+ (last in MLB), .271 wOBA (last in MLB), .103 ISO (last in MLB), and a strikeout rate of 23.9% (9th most in MLB). A dreamy matchup for any right handed pitcher. If Soroka is the real deal.......strike that........if Soroka is an average pitcher, he should have no issue tonight vs. the Marlins. He is also pitching in Miami, a favorable pitchers ballpark and is a decent favorite to get the win, actually higher than Wacha. Use him at your own risk.
There are only a couple stacks I am really leaning on tonight which can play out both ways. Since you are playing a narrow field of players, if they go off you can win a lot across the board. But if they don't, well then, you just simply aren't diversified enough to mitigate the damage. Nonetheless, I have confidence in each stack and believe tonight can be a big night. Similar to the pitchers, I will be mostly fading the weather concern games (NYM at PHILLY and SFG at PIT). I will also be fading the Colorado game as a stack. Although anything can happen in Coors, this is one of the lower project vegas totals for the series and both pitchers are above average. Don't get me wrong, I will be selecting a couple guys from each game but in general, I just am not in favor of the stacks.
LA Dodgers
Look, I don't care what your views are, Homer Bailey sucks. He hasn't been good in years and has been a target of mine and many others in DFS for as long as I can remember. He has been so bad I am even ignoring the fact that the Dodgers offense isn't that great and the fact he is pitching in a more pitcher friendly park. Nope, not having it, loading up on Dodgers. It doesn't matter if its left handers or right, Bailey hasn't been able to limit damage. Your looking at a left right split over the last year of .369 / .369 wOBA, low strikeout rate of 13.4% / 17%, 1.53 / 1.42 HR/9 rate, and terrible xFIP of 5.61 / 4.59. I mean come on, that is just bad. How about his performance so far this season. Let me save you the trouble..........awful.........last 3 games = 6 earned runs, 5 earned runs, 4 earned runs. Stack against him in all formats. Dodgers projected at 4.86 runs.
LA Angels
Sticking to the LA theme here, the Angels are also in a great spot vs. Kyle Gibson. Now this isn't as easy of a spot as the Dodgers but one that I think the Angels can sneak up and capitalize on. Gibson has been at best, o.k. the season. He sports a left/right split of .342 / .337 wOBA, 17.4% / 21% strikeout rate, .95 / 1.42 HR/9, and unimpressive 4.63 /3.87 xFIP. Nothing jumps off the page but the Angels have been at times one of the best offensives in baseball, especially against right handers. As it stands now, they rank 2nd in the league with a 115 wRC+, 3rd in the league with a .339 wOBA, and 4th in the league in terms of ISO at .189.........all vs. right handers. I would try to focus on those players that excel or are better vs. right handers but players like Kinsler, Trout, and Calhoun all have a little bit of success and history vs. Gibson. I suspect Ohtani won't be in the lineup if he is pitching tomorrow, which doesn't hurt a bit but nonetheless I like the spot at a low ownership upside play.
Braves
My final stack of the night is the Atlanta Braves up against left hander Jarlin Garcia. Again, another stack that doesn't jump off the page at you and doesn't have much of a vegas line to support a full stack but surprisingly Atlanta has been a top team vs. left handers all year. This is a surprise simply because they are loaded with left handers. I would focus on those right handers the Braves do have as this seems to be the biggest weakness of Garcia. He isn't the worst pitcher but he does have a very low strikeout rate at 16% vs. right handers coupled with a pretty bad 5.38 xFIP. Atlanta so far this season are ranked 2nd vs. left handers with a 119 wRC+, 2nd with a .349 wOBA, 11th with a .173 ISO, and very surprisingly have the lowest strikeout rate in all of baseball vs. left handers at 17.8%. This should be another sneaky play but a team that I think can excel in the right spot.
I hope you enjoyed. Please comment with any suggestions or other plays you like tonight. Good luck and lets win some money!
