Welcome Back Everyone,
Last night was fun. We nailed some really good stacks although the night could have been better if pitching worked out. Arrieta just is not good right. Tonight should be a good one. We have tons of stud pitchers coupled with some really good offenses in great matchups.
These articles are meant to provide you with good well researched content on fantasy sports, in particular DFS. All of the research is my own and will directly go into my own lineups. Too many people just copy and paste random articles on DFS just for views without much research or reasoning. That’s not what these articles are about. Not only am I giving you my favorite plays but I’m also giving you my reasoning and research to help you make your own decisions. If the article is wrong you can rest assured I lost money, so know that I am relying on exactly what I publish. Time and research is the key to winning and thats the backbone of my articles.
For MLB, I am splitting these articles up into pitching and team stacks, as that is how I play. Personally, I mostly play GPP type tournaments so stacking several players from one team is a strategy I never go without. Stacking (choosing several players from 1 lineup) is a great strategy for MLB DFS that I highly suggest you look into our bread my other articles explaining. All pricing will be based off Fanduel’s settings, as this is currently my favorite platform. Stats are derived primarily from FanGraphs with some random exceptions such as ESPN. If you haven’t already, feel free to follow my referral links and sign up for Fanduel and Draftkings:
Enjoy and please comment with thoughts and suggestions.
This article will focus on tonight’s main slate of MLB games. As of now, your 3 highest team total include Chicago Cubs (5.9), St Louis Cardinals (5.46), and Boston Red Sox (5.27) while your bottom 3 include Kansas City Royals (2.73), Pittsburgh Pirates (2.85), and Atlanta Braves (3.13).
This slate is shaping up to be a really good one but youI going to have to be very strategic and selective as to where you go. There are some big implied run totals, some excellent offensive spots, and some stud pitchers. You can’t afford everything. Confidence level 7/10.
We have a crazy night ahead of us for pitching with the likes of Scherzer, Sale, Syndergaard, Kershaw, and Verlander on the mound. I love slates like this where not only can you grab a stud pitcher without having to eat chalk but if you spend some quality time, research can really pay off. Initially I was a playing a lot of Sean Newcomb who just recently was scratched so now I am more heavy of “stud” type of pitchers.
Noah Syndergaard - $10,600
Noah Syndergaard owns some of the best advanced pitching statistics in the game. The numbers are simply elite. Over the past year, Syndergaard has held opponents to a wOBA split of .229/.283 while striking out opponents at a rate of 34% / 27%. Everything looks good on paper including his low xFIP of 2.43/ 2.17 and the fact he barely gives up any home runs posting a superb HR/9 rate of .28 / .56. The downside here is that he is facing the Braves for a second time already this season who aren’t as bad of an offensive team as in the past.
Atlanta as a team vs. right handers has posted a 107 wRC+ (8th in MLB), .330 wOBA (5th), and .163 ISO (14th). As you can see, the Braves have been consistently a top 10 team vs. right handed pitching all season and as another downside, they barely strikeout vs. right handers with a rate of 20.8%, good for 23rd overall in MLB. Syndergaard also pitched in Atlanta just a few weeks ago and although he didn’t pitch badly, his stat line hardly supported the “stud” price tag (6 innings, 6 k’s, 3 earned runs, 31 FD points). There is also the fact that the scale weighs more in favor of bats the second time around but again, we are talking about an elite stud pitcher here that can dominate any lineup at any time. I like Syndergaard’s price vs. the other top tier studs. I like the fact he has far better metrics over the last year vs. the other studs. I like the fact he has historically pitched better at home and I like that he is a decent favorite here. If I am playing a top priced stud pitcher tonight, it will likely be Syndergaard. Bigger favorite for win now with Newcomb scratch.
Sean Newcomb - $7,400
Well just as I finished writing this he is scratched. Really funny because he was my man, now I am likely stacking against the Atlanta pitcher.
Max Scherzer - $11,500
In reality, if you’re trying to play it safe tonight, Scherzer is your man. He has been simply outstanding this season, like always, and has a great home matchup with the visiting Pirates. Of all expensive or stud pitchers, he is in the best spot and consistently produces the best results. There really is no reason quoting his statistics, just understand that their elite, especially to right handers who virtually haven’t been able to hit him for years. The only flaw (which is a stretch) is that he is significantly worse against left handers, but that by no means indicates he is bad against them. Left handers have a .286 wOBA and 1.28 HR/9 rate against Scherzer over the last year and his xFIP stands at 3.46.
The Pirates, unlike past years, have a lot of decent left handed batters in their lineup this year including Frazier, Polanco, Bell, Dickerson, and Moran. The Pirates as a team have been middle of the pack vs. right handers this year in terms of stats and that’s a lot of left handers to face and the reason I likely won’t be playing much Scherzer. I’m not saying he won’t go out there are be great but all those lefties might make the outing more difficult and thus harder to produce an outing to justify his huge price tag. On top of that, I fully expect Scherzerto be the chalk stud tonight. Fade him at your own risk, but that is my justification for doing so. There is really no reason he won’t perform tonight like an ace but about 5 or so reasons (left handed bats) he won’t be able to meet an $11,500 price tag in my book. With Newcomb scratch I may be forced into more Scherzer.
Justin Verlander - $10,800
This is my scary guy tonight. Verlander doesn’t really deserve me saying that as he has been crazy good this year (5/6 outings – 43 FD points or more) but we all know the type of offense the Yankees possess. To be fair, outside of maybe the Angels, Verlander hasn’t faced an elite offense like the Yankees yet this season. Regardless, we are looking at a guy who owns a split wOBA of .282 / .269, split strikeout rate of 30% / 24%, and xFIP of 3.95 / 4.18. His HR/9 rate is a little higher than I like, especially vs. the Yankees, but manageable at 1.25 / 1.04. Again, this is a super risky play simply based on the matchup.
The Yankees are a top 3 team in almost every advanced statistical category vs. right handers. However, they do offer up a bunch of strikeouts as they are sporting a 24% team strikeout rate vs. right handers on the year. Charlie Morton, who is a far less pitcher, dominated the Yankees last night, so we know it is possible. I suspect you can Verlander at a very very low ownership rate tonight and if you can tolerate some risk, you can grab a stud pitcher with some extra strikeout upside tonight with little ownership. With Newcomb scratch I will likely play more Verlander.
There are a lot of offenses in really good spots tonight so I am going to do my best to help narrow down which I believe have the best chance to stand above all. I’ve listed a lot of stacks tonight but have also included the reasoning and some data behind each. Hopefully this will help you narrow down your decision. I don’t recommend stacking all of these teams as it will spread you out too thin and limit success but instead narrow down to around 3-4 teams. I suspect tonight will include a bunch of offense and as a result very high scoring affairs in each contest.
Boston
Likely the chalk stack tonight, Boston again is in a great spot to succeed as a team. Projected at 5.23 runs, Boston is facing right hander Jakob Junis, a guy that is coming off a start where he gave up 5 home runs. Junis is a young, inexperienced pitcher who tonight has to man the mound in Boston. Boston just so happens to be the best team in all of MLB vs. right handers, no matter how you slice it. Boson literally ranks first in wRC+ (131), wOBA (.373), and ISO (.205) vs. right handers in 2018. They also almost never strikeout with a rate of 17.4% good for 30th or lowest in the league. They are simply elite vs. right handers and get to face a guy tonight that is serving up bombs to right handers. Junis is has a split wOBA of .315 / .318 with a 1.29 / 1.86 HR/9 rate. Not good, just not good. Stack pretty much anyone from the Red Sox lineup.
St. Louis
St. Louis is facing one of the worst pitcher in MLB over the last couple of seasons in James Shields. Shields use to be a decent pitcher back in the day but not anymore, he is an easy name to target regardless of the offense. Shields has a split wOBA of .380 / .317, split strikeout rate of 16% / 21%, and awful xFIPsplit of 6.14 / 4.70. He also have a real juicy HR/9 split rate of 2.39 / 1.16. Those numbers are just not good. Unfortunately, St. Louis has not been the best offense this year, especially vs. right handers. They are basically middle of the road with a 100 wRC+ (ranked 15th), .315 wOBA (16th), and .156 ISO (16th). Regardless, I like St. Louis a lot tonight to capitalize on the terribleness of James Shields. Start both sides of the plate against him, but lefties absolutely are destroying him.
Milwaukee
Milwaukee has a great implied team total tonight of 4.94 going up against Homer Bailey in Cincinnati. Homer Baily is not a good pitcher as made evident by his .350 / .369 wOBA split, 1.04 / 1.39 HR/9 split, and 5.60 / 4.46 xFIP. He is also significantly worse at home where in 2017 his HR/9 jumped from .72 (away) to 1.54 (home). Milwaukee has also had a lot of success vs. Bailey over the years and although they aren’t the great team in terms of numbers vs. right handed pitchers, I think they are in a great spot to capitalize against a weak pitcher in a hitter’s park. You can attack Bailey from both sides of the plate but make sure Braun is in that stack.
New York Mets
This is funny because a couple minutes ago I was pitching Sean Newcomb against the Mets for their inability to hit left handers. Newcomb is now scratched and Atlanta is starting a young, inexperienced AAA guy named Mike Soroka. I know am all aboard the Mets train as they go from a bottom team vs. left handers to a top statistical team vs. right handers. You’re looking at a 110 wRC+ (4th in MLB), .328 wOBA (7th), and .163 ISO (13th). We don’t have much on Mike Soroka but I am all in favor of stacking the big lefties of the Mets against the young guy.
Honorable MentionChicago Cubs
I feel obligated to list the cubs here as they have an extremely high run line total at 5.89 and are playing in a very windy (blowing outward) ballpark at Wrigley. The wind factor alone at Wrigley often means big things for offenses and if you couple that with the team and run line total, I believe the Cubs are your chalk stack of the night. The reason I won’t be playing much of them is simple. Jon Gray is a good pitcher. He pitchers most of his games in Coors so his numbers are inflated but if you limit his starts to away splits, you can see just how good he is. I’m likely playing with fire here as we were successful in not playing the Chicago chalk last night but I think I’m going to do it again tonight. In any case, Chicago is in a great spot tonight both in terms of matchup, park, and weather. So I don’t blame you if you want some exposure.
Toronto
I have a thing for Toronto. It may simply be because I played them so much last season and all they did was let me down (and lose a lot of money). Well it seems like they are much better off as an offense this year and have a good matchup tonight vs. right hander Kyle Gibson. Gibson is coming of a stellar performance against the Yankees but I am throwing that out the window as an anomaly. Outside of that, he hasn’t been good. Over the last year, we are looking at a guy who has a split wOBA of .343 / .305 and low strikeout rate of 16.7% / 23%. He is also giving up a decent amount of home runs with a HR/9 rate of .90 / 1.52. I like this Toronto offense tonight and their sneaky power (ISO vs. right handers of .204 ranked 2nd behind Boston). Take note of the weather concerns in this game though, as it could pose some problems. Start both sides of the plate. Expect low ownership with Gibson’s recent success, weather concerns, and not great implied run line total of 4.26.
Good luck tonight and let me know your thoughts. Let’s win some money!