All,
Last night was rough. Took a big risk in fading the Houston stack (highest implied team total) and it backfired as they dominated and put up a huge amount of runs. Today's a different day though, and that is why we love DFS.
All pricing will be based off Fanduel’s settings, as this is currently my favorite platform. Stats are derived primarily from FanGraphs with some random exceptions such as ESPN.If you haven’t already, feel free to follow my referral links and sign up for Fanduel and Draftkings:
Enjoy and please comment with thoughts and suggestions.This article is going to be short and to the point as I am running out of time putting it together. The main slate today starts at 1:05pm (eastern) and moving forward I need to publish Sunday articles a bit earlier to ensure people have a chance to read and set lineups.
I set the article up similar to last nights with my favorite pitchers and stacks. Since I am running short on time and want to make sure the article gets out quickly, there won't be much written explanation as the last article. Feel free to leave comments and ask any questions.
In my opinion, today is little better than last night in terms of where I am confident playing pitchers. Stacks are a little harder to narrow down but I think we feel a bit more confident than last night. Confidence rating 6.5/10.
J.A. Happ - $8,800
Happ has been pretty great so far this season and is coming off a dominant 7 inning, 10 strikeout, 1 earned run performance against the Red Sox. The metrics support his run dominance so far as he is sporting a really solid xFIP split 3.37/3.84. He is holding opponents to a .223/.320 left/right wOBA split while also maintaining a decent strikeout rate split of 23%/25%.
He has been dominating left handers over the last year and if he has shown any weakness it has been right handers. It's for this reason I love Happ today vs. the Texas Rangers. The Rangers have generally sported a weak offense this year and if they have shown any strength, it is with their left handed batters. Their best bats include Joey Gallo, Sin-Soo Choo, and Nomar Mazara, all of whom bat from the left handed side. The Rangers lineup has been posted and all three are in. This is great news for Happ. The strongest right handed bat for Texas is Beltre, who is currently on the DL. I fully expect Happ to dominate the left handers and have no problem navigating the likes of DeShields, Isiah Kiner-Falefa (59 MLB at bats), Nunez, Chirinos, Rua, and Profar. None of them scare me and the 3.48 projected run line for the Rangers supports that there should be little to no damage by Happ's opponent. I'm locking and loading Happ today with confidence. His price is also excellent compared to all other pitchers I like.
Jose Berrios - $9,500
This one scares me a little more than Happ as Berrios has been really up and down so far this season. There is no question Berrios is one of more talented young pitchers in the MLB today, but he often can get caught in the wrong inning and can't find his way out. So far this season he has a 9 inning 55 point performance (fanduel), 7 inning 64 point performance, and another 7 inning 40 point performance. All excellent games showcasing his talent and upside against some of the better teams in the MLB. However, he has also thrown up an 18 point game and 20 point game so far this season, showing his downside if things go wrong.
The numbers on Berrios are pretty solid of the last year. We are looking at a wOBA left/right split of .325/.255 with a 21%/26% strikeout rate. Not overwhelming impressive but something we can work with. The splits show he has been pretty dominant to right handed bats but has shown struggle against left handed bats. The good news is he is playing the Reds who have a very weak 3.76 implied team today going into todays game and have generally sucked as an offense for this entire season. The bad news is Cincinnati is loaded with left handed batters but keep in mind they haven't been good. However, Cinci is employing basically the same lineup they have all season today and that lineup has been a bottom 5 team in almost every major advanced statistic available vs. right handed pitchers. I think you have upside as Berrios is a favorite, pitching at home against a struggling Reds team.
Robbie Ray - $9,300
Full disclaimer, Robbie Ray is one of my favorite pitchers in the game today so I'm always trying to find an excuse to play him. The dude has some insane numbers against both left and right handers. As a left handed pitcher, Robbie Ray has held batters to a wOBA split of .280/.294 over the past year with an insane strikeout split of 13.98/12.10 per 9 at a rate of 39%/32%. You have to love that as he offers so much upside with the potential to go double digit strikeouts any game. His xFIP split over the last year also supports his dominance in pitching as it sits at 2.47/3.74 showing that he is pretty much the real deal. The only downside, which is a major downside, is that with all the strikeouts comes high pitch counts. In fact, this year, he hasn't lasted past the 6th inning and his more major strikeout games have held him under 6 innings. This isn't good, as you don't get points for a quality start and potentially could risk getting a win if he can't make it 5. But the upside remains very high as you could see double digit strikeouts, a quality start and win.
His opponent today is Washington which many people fear but hear me out. In general, Washington has not been a great team vs. left handed pitchers this year and it makes sense as their best bats (Bryce Harper) are lefties. For 2018 they haven't shown much power vs. left handers and have ranked bottom 8 or below in terms of wRC+ and wOBA in the split. But be warned, it looks as though they stacked their lineup today with right handers as Harper looks to be the only true left handed batter in the lineup.
I apologize, this is going to be quick with very little explanation as I want to make sure the article gets out before noon.
<ul>
<li>Robinson Cano - $3,800</li>
<li>Kyle Seager - $3,600</li>
<li>Jean Segura - $3,800</li>
<li>Nelson Cruz - $3,600</li>
<li>Mitch Haniger - $3,900</li>
<li>Dee Gordon - $3,400<br>
<ul>
<li>Steve Pearce - $2,800</li>
<li>Teoscar Hernandez - $3,600</li>
<li>Justin Smoak - $3,900</li>
<li>Yangervis Solarte - $3,200</li>
<li>Kevin Pillar - $3,000</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
Hurry up and set some lineups. Good luck today and lets win some money!