Week 6 of the NFL season is here and it's shaping up to be a fun one. In terms of DFS and fantasy football, players and teams are starting to separate themselves from the pack, both good and bad. We also have a decent sample size to work with when selecting players and building lineups. As always, we start the week off with our favorite plays at the quarterback position. Enjoy!
Last week we highlighted Roethlisberger, Bortles, and Rodgers as our top QB picks and each did well. Although the PIT/ATL game didn't quite turn into the shootout everyone expected, Big Ben did well. Bortles also had a great game for fantasy owners and if you were risky enough to play Rodgers, well he did awesome at low ownership. Lets keep it rolling into Week 6!
Each week we take a step back to review the upcoming weeks matchups and crunch the numbers to develop a series of position specific articles related to top daily fantasy sports plays. Whether you are playing on FanDuel, DrafKings, or even configuring your season long NFL lineups, these articles should serve as a reference tool and helpful guide to choosing the best players. I've shortened these articles to give you only the necessities and bottom-line reasoning as to my top choices. This is a no bullshi*t article and by that I mean the players and plays I suggest are those that I will be using in my personal lineups. Nothing is excluded. We intend to win. The goal is to make great lineups, win money, and share our success stories. If you are new to my blog or daily fantasy sports in general, I encourage you to check out my DFS Introduction post which provides some general context on what DFS is and how to play. Spoiler alert, if you like playing fantasy sports and winning money, DFS is the platform for you. Also, if you haven’t already, feel free to follow my referral links and sign up for Fanduel and Draftkings. Each provides its own set of bonuses for new users.
With that being said, here are my top plays at the quarterback position for Week 6. Enjoy, upvote, and comment on your weekly outlook.
$6,800 / vs. TB / ATL - 3
Matt Ryan disappointed many fantasy owners last week against Pittsburgh and ends up in a similarly great matchup this week at home vs. Tampa Bay. A lot of people will be on this game this weekend but it seems, as of this writing, most players are focusing on the cheaper alternative Jameis Winston. Hopefully that coupled with Ryan's poor performance last week will tamper his ownership against Tampa. In any case, Ryan lands in a great spot this weekend vs. a very poor Tampa defense. So far this season Ryan has been a top play QB 3/5 weeks, all of which were at home, somewhere where he excels (in a dome). He is averaging 37 passing attempts a game and over 320 total yards passing. Last week's lessor performance against Pittsburgh still saw Ryan throw for 285 and a TD. On top of all of this, the Falcons are currently projected to score 30.3 points this week, a very high total. Their running game has been below average all year and their defense has allowed other teams to either keep up or lead, meaning Ryan should have to continue to pass all game.
The Tampa Bay defense has been a great matchup for any QB this season. They have surrendered 358 passing yards a game (worst in NFL) and 13 total passing TDs (tied for worst in NFL). Focusing in on fantasy production by QBs, Tampa is giving up the most points per game to the position with 34 (standard scoring) and QBs have posted a 130.5 rating against them. Just a ++ matchup for any QB, let alone a good one like Matt Ryan. I think he is the safest play this week for cash style games but we may get lucky and have ownership down due to price, other options, and last weeks performance, making him a GPP option.
$5,800 / at ATL / + 3
Flipping to other side of the ATL/TB game, we have an equally cushy matchup for Jameis Winston, just at a much lower price point compared to Matt Ryan. Full disclosure, I won't have too much exposure to Winston this weekend, not because of the matchup, but because I am seeing his name literally everywhere. Without a doubt, I think he will be the chalkiest QB in DFS this weekend but for good reason as he is in a great spot. Winston missed the first few games of the season because of a suspension and we all got to see the great Fitzmagic tear up the NFL to then get benched in Week 4 mid game in favor in favor of Winston. Fitzpatrick deserves a ton of credit but you can also look at it from another angle in that the Tampa Bay offense is set up for a QB to thrivt and now has a better QB leading them. Jameis Winston has the stats to back him up from 2017 in which he came into his own and had a really great year. His matchup this week has everything we are looking for. Last week the Falcons gave up 250 yards to Big Ben (a play of ours) and 3 TDs. Honestly, he could have done much better but for the fact the Steelers took control fast and had a nice cushion to turn to the run game. Atlanta's defense has been getting torched through the air, giving up an average of 277 yards a game (bottom 10 team) and 12 TDs. They are surrounding over 28 points to opposing QBs in fantasy (standard scoring) and a 102 QB rating. Even more to the point, Winston has had success against Atlanta in the past. Week 15 of 2017, Winston went 27/35 for 299 yards and 3 TDs. A talented QB, undervalued on DFS sites, with all the weapons to throw to, and against a very weak defense, Winston is a great play this week in Atlanta.
$5,600 / at DAL / JAX + 3
I like playing 3 QBs across my DFS lineups each week. Typically, I have a main guy for most contests and then throw the other two in random GPPs. This week I have really struggled nailing down a 3rd QB. Somehow I keep looking back to Blake Bortles visiting the Dallas Cowboys. This is clearly a risky play this week in a somewhat tough matchup. But the fact of the matter is the Jaguars backfield is decimated and Bortles has been throwing the ball a lot and pretty successfully. Last week in a great spot against the Chiefs, Bortles threw the ball a total of 61 times, which is utterly insane. He put up 430 yards through the air against them but was only able to throw 1 TD (with 4 INTs). At just $5,600 on DK, thats still a great value performance considering he landed 2 separate yardage bonuses. I don't think anything changes this week. Yeldon remains the only running back of use for the Jags and even he is banged up a bit. I think they continue to air it out and rely on Bortle's arm. If you are looking for numbers, Bortle's has thrown the ball a total of 99x over the last 2 weeks for a total of 818 yards. That's over 400 yards a game through the air, which again adds significant upside for yardage bonuses. The downside is that the Cowboys' defense is not bad, in fact they are top 10 in terms of yardage given up through the air. However, they have played QBs like Eli Manning, Russell Wilson, and Cam Newton, all QBs that either are having really bad years or don't throw for big totals. It's a risky play, but if you are looking for a contrarian play that does have upside, Bortles could be your man.
That's about it for this week. As mentioned, I will likely be pretty heavy on Matt Ryan followed by some risky play in Bortles. Jameis is in a great spot but beware of ownership. Let me know your thoughts and if you have any QB recommendations for the weekend. Good luck out there and lets win some money!
Sourced: NFL.com / SB Nation / For the Win - USA Today
