It's Week 5 of the NFL season and as always we have to get ourselves prepped for some DFS action. Last night we had Thursday night football featuring the Patriots and Colts with the Patriots quickly reminding us they haven't gone anywhere. I am personally really excited for this weekend. As of this writing there are 5 games with totals exceeding 50 points which should mean a big weekend of offense.
Last weekend our QB picks did pretty well. Deshaun Watson continues to produce each and every week really leaving into question whether you should always have some exposure to him in your lineups. Tom Brady also came through against the Dolphins basically burying any notion that he or the Patriots have lost a step. Eli Manning unfortunately was our biggest bust and I likely won't be playing him again this season. He was in a cake matchup and now is surrounded by some supremely skilled players. If he couldn't do it last week, I have no faith he can do anything worthwhile again. So lets roll right into Week 5 with our top QB picks.
Each week we take a step back to review the upcoming weeks matchups and crunch the numbers to develop a series of position specific articles related to top daily fantasy sports plays. Whether you are playing on FanDuel, DrafKings, or even configuring your season long NFL lineups, these articles should serve as a reference tool and helpful guide to choosing the best players. I've shortened these articles to give you only the necessities and bottom-line reasoning as to my top choices. This is a no bullshi*t article and by that I mean the players and plays I suggest are those that I will be using in my personal lineups. Nothing is excluded. We intend to win. The goal is to make great lineups, win money, and share our success stories. If you are new to my blog or daily fantasy sports in general, I encourage you to check out my DFS Introduction post which provides some general context on what DFS is and how to play. Spoiler alert, if you like playing fantasy sports and winning money, DFS is the platform for you. Also, if you haven’t already, feel free to follow my referral links and sign up for Fanduel and Draftkings. Each provides its own set of bonuses for new users.
With that being said, here are my top plays at the quarterback position for Week 5. Enjoy, upvote, and comment on your weekly outlook.
$6,900 / vs. ATL / PIT + 3
Although the Steelers in general have been a disappointment so far in 2018, Ben Roethlisberger has been chucking the ball at a ridiculous rate. Through the first 4 weeks of the season, Big Ben leads the NFL in total yards with 1,414 and an average of 353 yards a game. This in part is due to the Steelers trailing rather quickly in games because of their poor defense and their overall abandonment of the run game, again likely due to the fact their defense is hermeraging points. Essentially, their defense is so bad that they need to throw the football to keep up with teams.
Pittsburgh takes on the Atlanta Falcon's this weekend who themselves are a high flying offense that is scoring an average of 29+ points a game, so I believe to keep up the Steelers will need to continue with a heavy passing attack. I've expressed in the past that Big Ben has some seriously concerning home/road splits, so knowing he is playing at home this weekend should make him a solid play regardless. More so, the Falcons defense just isn't good vs. the pass. They are giving up 284+ yards a game through the air and over 30 points a game (3rd worst in the league). Looking at position specific stats, the Falcon's struggle against QBs with an average of 28 standard fantasy points per game surrendered (4th worst). Both teams are on the ropes this weekend and need a victory. With a over/under of 58 points, this game should be nothing short of a shootout. My action will be on the Pittsburgh and playing at home vs. a very suspect defense, I think Big Big should have no trouble putting up top tier points in DFS.
$5,500 / at KC / KC + 3
If you are looking to save a little cash on a guy in a premier matchup, Blake Bortles is that guy. He and the Jaguars travel to Kansas City this weekend to take on the Chiefs. Bortle's is coming off a big game vs. the Jets this past weekend, so I suspect he will garnish some chalk type of ownership but for good reason. First, with Fournette missing time, the Jaguars have had to rely on Bortles' arm to win games. He has shown some promising upside with a 388 yard / 2 TD game vs. the Jets in Week 4 and a 377 yard / 4 TD performance against New England in Week 2. His matchup vs. the Chiefs is something we have been targeting all year in DFS. The Chiefs continue to give up huge totals to opposing offenses even after the somewhat weak performance last week by Denver. For 2018, the Chiefs defense is averaging 451 + yards of total offense surrendered per game with 328+ of that coming through the air. Those stats rank dead last and 2nd to last in the NFL respectively. So the matchup itself is ideal and we know Bortles will be relied upon to throw with Fournette missing another game. Although a bit chalky, I believe Bortles is good bet to exceed 300 yards in passing to go along with a couple scores this weekend in Kansas City.
$6,300 / at DET / GB + 1
Fully admit, this pick is getting worse by the day with all of the Green Bay receiver injuries. As of now, Randall Cobb is officially ruled out for Week 5 and Adams and Allison remain questionable. Should all of those receivers be ruled out for Week 5, go ahead and ignore this pick because even with all his talent and wisdom, I don't think Aaron Rodgers is worth a shot with almost no one to throw too. But, assuming Adams and/or Allison do suit up this weekend, I think Aaron Rodgers makes for a great low owned play vs. the Detroit Lions. His price continues to drop due to the fact his performances have been average at best. I blame most of that on his knee injury but the news surrounding his knee is that it continues to improve week to week. Most every week, Rodgers is priced around $7,000 or more on DK, so seeing him at just $6,300 screams bargain for me. I don't care what Mahomes or any other QB is doing through 4 weeks of the NFL season, Aaron Rodgers is the best QB in the league. If he didn't assure us all of that Week 1 with his halftime come back, will his team to victory on one leg performance, well one of these weeks he is going to explode and show us all up. This could be that week if all things align right with his receivers health.
Although the Lions defense seems much improved this year, they are still surrendering nearly 29 points per game and just gave up 277 yards and 2 TDs to Dak Prescott, who has been a pretty bad QB this year. The total for the game sits at 51, so we should see a ton of points being put up on the board. The offense runs through Aaron Rodgers and I suspect he will be airing it out a ton over the weekend. A risky play, especially with his lack of weapons, I like Aaron Rodgers for a low owned contrarian play this weekend in what should be a high scoring, pass happy game.
DeShaun Watson - $6,200 - Texans
That is all everyone. Hope you enjoyed. Stay tuned for the other position specific articles within the next couple of days!
Sourced: SB Nation / USA Today / Yahoo Sports
