Welcome back to another edition of the DFS Drawing Board. It's been a couple of weeks since my last series of articles and I apologize, but I was down and out with eye surgery. In that time, I've also decided to start primarily playing on FanDuel which should hopefully yield some better results. You can find a quick article on the topic here but in general, its not that we weren't successful or winning money, its just that I never felt as though my best lineups were close to taking down tournaments or having big finishes whereas on FanDuel, I've had a couple awesome sweats. In any case, we are back at it. This article we focus in on the QB position for Week 14.
Each week we take a step back to review the upcoming weeks matchups and crunch the numbers to develop a series of position specific articles related to top daily fantasy sports plays. Whether you are playing on FanDuel, DrafKings, or even configuring your season long NFL lineups, these articles should serve as a reference tool and helpful guide to choosing the best players. I've shortened these articles to give you only the necessities and bottom-line reasoning as to my top choices. This is a no bullshi*t article and by that I mean the players and plays I suggest are those that I will be using in my personal lineups. Nothing is excluded. We intend to win. The goal is to make great lineups, win money, have a great time, and share our success stories. If you are new to my blog or daily fantasy sports in general, I encourage you to check out my DFS Introduction post which provides some general context on what DFS is and how to play. Spoiler alert, if you like playing fantasy sports and winning money, DFS is the platform for you. Also, if you haven’t already, feel free to follow my referral links and sign up for Fanduel and Draftkings. Each provides its own set of bonuses for new users.
With that being said, here are my top plays at the quarterback position for Week 14. Enjoy, upvote, and comment on your weekly outlook. Note, pricing now reflects what is posted on FanDuel.
$8,100 / vs. ATL / GB - 4
I am all in on Aaron Rodgers this weekend and its pretty scary. The Packers are nearly eliminated from playoffs, Rodgers and the offense has struggled all season, and their head coach just got canned. Quite simply, the Green Bay Packers are a mess this season . . . and for that reason, I love it. Although Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers have had some historically successful seasons together, it was pretty clear that friction existed between the couple all season. Yes, Rodgers was hurt basically at the onset of the season but as the season went along he and the Packers just looked unmotivated, disinterested, and out of sorts. Rumors floated that Rodgers didn't believe in the play calling and McCarthy's strategy throughout the season. It seemed as though McCarthy would be gone at the end of season but then the bombshell hit last week when he was fired following their Week 13 loss.
If I am to believe any of the rumors, Aaron Rodgers should be a happy camper moving forward. With McCarthy gone, so goes the unhealthy relationship between coach and star QB. I would imagine if the Packers are smart, they will be listening to Rodgers and the offense should open up more to his liking. Don't get me wrong, the Packers are still pretty much eliminated from playoffs and if they keep losing they might just shut Rodgers down due to his knee injury. But with the firing of McCarthy, I think there will be some rejoice around the locker room, offense, and with Rodgers. In fact, he may just come out with some fire. I think Rodgers is going to come out to prove something and with full control this weekend and moving forward, so long as they remain within a chance to make the postseason. It's just a hunch but I could see it all season that Rodgers was frustrated and unhappy. There are almost no excuses now that he is healthy and in control of the offense. We all know the type of QB he is and can be, so lets just hope that guy shines this weekend.
To top it all, Rodgers is playing at home vs. a very very weak Atlanta Falcons defense. The over/under sits at a healthy 50 points going into the game and we know have almost full season of terrible Atlanta defensive stats to rely on. According to Rotogrinders, Atlanta is giving up the 2nd most fantasy points (FD) to the QB position this season at an average of 22.94 FD points per game. Basically every decent and non-decent QB has eaten their secondary alive this season. Rodgers is also ranked 7th in terms of salary this weekend which offers us some value. He shouldn't really be owned due to his past performances. I love it all around. Rodgers will be motivated, fired up, and willing to just prove to the world he is the best QB in the league. Get ready. Big write up, for a big performance. *****FULL DISCLAIMER, I HAVE A SH*T TON OF RODGERS IN SEASON LONG LEAGUES - SO I AM MOTIVATED ON MULTIPLE FRONTS LOL *****
$8,300 / vs. CIN / LAC - 14
Another QB in a great spot this weekend is Philip Rivers but be warned. The Chargers are huge favorites at home vs. the Cincinnati Bengals who are just falling apart before our eyes. I don't necessarily love this play, but there is some logic to back it up. Rivers is a great play should Melvin Gordon miss another game and all indications are that he will. Typically you favor the RB position, not the QB position for heavily favorited teams and in this case, a 14 point favor should be a total avoid for a QB. However, I watched the game last week and the Chargers simply and understandably aren't the same running team without Melvin Gordon. He is an elite back and there is huge step down to Austin Eckeler who in my mind, is better served pass catching. For example, against a pretty good defense in Pittsburgh, Eckeler received a healthy 13 carries but managed only 21 rushing yards. It's just not the same backfield without Gordon.
So how does this fit my play in Rivers? Well, for one, if the Chargers are to score, and everything points to them putting up a high total, its got to come by way of Philip Rivers. Even as 14 point favorites, to get to that I believe it will all be with Rivers throwing the ball. To sustain the lead, the Chargers will probably have to continue throwing the ball. I just see it as an all Philip Rivers managed game at home. Second, the Cincinnati Bengals are the worst team in terms of points given up to the QB position in the NFL. According to Rotogrinders, they give up an NFL worst 23.39 FD points to the QB position each week on average. In general, they can't stop anyone and traveling across the county to play in a game with little implication or motivation, the Bengals likely won't be trying to stop anyone. Again, it is a bit risky due to the blowout potential but I just can't see it being a blowout without a big game from Rivers. The Chargers, on the other hand are still playing for a lot (division and playoffs), so I imagine Rivers isn't taking any game too lightly. If you don't play Rivers, feel free to play Eckeler on the other end because the Bengals also can't stop the run.
$8,400 / at CLE / CAR - 2
A bit of a safer play than the before mentioned guys, Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers travel to Cleveland this weekend. As we approach the end of the NFL season, its always a good idea to stick to teams and guys that have to something to play for. Cam and Carolina fits that bill. Carolina very much so needs to get back on track and win a game in Cleveland to maintain any hope of making the playoffs. As a team, they have struggled over the last few weeks, slowly sliding out of contention. So much so that even against the lowly Cleveland Browns, Carolina is only a 2 point favorite. In any regard, Cam Newton should be showing up to play in a big way as the season now rests on his shoulders. He is actually having a great season despite the losses and as a guy that can put up crooked numbers utilizing both his arm and legs, I like him week in and week out. Switching to FanDuel that does not offer yardage bonuses, TDs become all the more important. Cam offers upside that others don't. TDs on the ground along with through the air.
Cleveland isn't the best matchup for QBs but as I mentioned, Cam isn't normal. Even against stout defenses such Seattle, Baltimore, and Washington, Cam has been able to put up great value performances by adding yards and TDs with his legs. I think Cam comes out motivated and swinging this weekend in Cleveland and puts up a great performance all around. Compared to the Rodgers and Rivers, Cam to me offers a safer play with the same upside but he faces a tougher defense and likely will garnish some decent ownership.
That wraps up Week 14 at the QB position. I hope you all enjoyed. Let me know in the comments your thoughts on this weeks actions and if I missed any intriguing plays at the position. Good luck out there and as always, lets win some money!
Sourced: Daily Express / The Press-Enterprise / UpRoxx.com
