Hey All,
Sorry it has been so long since my last article but with the MLB All-Star break and a lot of summer projects around the house, I just haven't been playing too much DFS. Personally, I don't want to be giving out any picks or advice if I'm not fully invested myself. If I'm recommending a play, know that in all likelihood, I am playing that player myself.
In any case, we have an exciting large MLB slate tonight to gear back up for. This one is going to be exciting as we have multiple aces to sort through and a number of stud bats in great matchups including a always-fun game in Coors. Also, its worth mentioning that FanDuel has teamed up with Rotogrinders to launch their Single Entry Series. I plan to post a quick article on these tournaments but in general, all week long FanDuel in conjunction with Rotogrinders will have a specified single entry tournament. Your score from this daily tournament gets recorded and at the end of the week you could be in contention for prizes. Your top 4 scores of the week are kept and can be seen over at Rotogrinders on a leaderboard. It's literally one of my favorite DFS tournaments and series and I highly recommend you check it out. That being said, lets get after it.
If you are to my blog or daily fantasy sport in general, I enoucrage you to check out the introduction to one of my previous DFS posts as it provides some context to what these articles are about and how to utilize them to your advantage. I also put together a pretty in-depth article explaining DFS in general.
This article will focus on tonight's large main slate of games. Your top 3 highest implied team totals as of this writing include Colorado Rockies (5.83), Boston Red Sox (5.82), and New York Yankees (5.72). The bottom feeders according to Vegas include Minnesota Twins (2.66), Miami Marlins (2.99), and San Diego Padres (3.15). Its shaping up to be a great night with some easy picks in my opinion. The only challenge will be fitting everyone in. Confidence level 8/10.
I am pretty limited across pitching tonight and by limited I mean I likely will only play Sale as he is just in an elite matchup and worth paying up for. However, if you should choose to go elsewhere, I think Greinke is also in a great spot coming off some very impressive performances along with Chris Archer. Although beware that Archer is in a heavy rain risk game and likely should be avoided. Really what I'm saying is just play Sale and find a way to fit him.
Chris Sale - $12,800
This one is fairly obvious since you don't need much to understand Chris Sale is elite against almost any lineup. His numbers for 2018 are simply off the charts for the left hander. For 2018, Sale is holding left handers to a .191 wOBA and sports a 1.79 xFIP in the split. Right handers don't fare much better as Sale has held them to a .248 wOBA with a 2.53 xFIP. He is striking out left handers at nearly a 40% clip (just insane) and striking out right handers at a slightly worse but equally insane 37% rate. Sale has yet to give up a HR to a left hander in 2018 and sports a lowly .81 HR/9 to right handers. All in all, Sale is off the charts and pitching his way to the Cy Young award. Oh, and if his numbers couldn't get any better, he has pitched better overall at home this year.
Sale faces off against the Twins in Boston tonight. The Twins have had a very disappointing season as they were expected to contend for their division but simply have not been able to put anything together. They rank towards to the bottom of the league in almost every major advanced team statistic vs. left handers. For 2018, the Twins sport a team 85 wRC+ (23rd in MLB), .298 wOBA (23rd in MLB), and .120 ISO (28th in MLB) all vs. left handed pitchers. Moreover, the Twins are striking out vs. left handers at a 23.5% rate this year, good for 5th most in MLB. Couple all this with the fact Sale is a huge home favorite at -306 and Minnesota is projected the lowest total on the slate at 2.68.
Chris Sale at home vs. a team no longer contending this season that is a top 5 team in terms of strikeout percentage.........I will take that all day. If you can find the extra money to spend up for Sale, he is your safest bet on the slate and one I would feel completely safe rostering tonight. Though, it may be tough considering there are some elite bats in great spots tonight.
Zack Greinke - $11,000
If you looking to save a couple bucks off Sale, I think your next best safe bet is Greinke. He is coming off two great starts against Colorado and Atlanta where he put up an 8 inning 13 strikeout performance along with a 7.2 inning 7 strikeout performance while only giving up 1 earned run across both performances. Greinke has been a top-tier pitcher for some time now and faces off against a bad offense in the San Diego Padres. The Padres enter tonight with the third lowest projected run total at only 3.15.
Greinke sports some great advanced metrics including a left right split wOBA of .275/.293 to go along with a split strikeout rate of 25%/27%. The Padres on the other hand are striking out at 26% rate vs. right handers this year, good for 2nd overall in MLB. They also have a wRC+ of just 79 along with an abysmal .121 ISO, both bottom 2 in the baseball. The matchup is great, Greinke has been pitching extremely well, and is a heavy favorite vs. a weak team with nothing to play for. If I am going anywhere but Sale, Greinke is my man.
There are so many ways you can go tonight with bats. However, being that I am sold on 2 (really 1) stud pitchers tonight, value is important. For this reason, I will try to recommend some of the lesser expensive bats but there are certainly some major stud bats in great spots tonight including the game in Colorado.
Philadelphia Phillies - 4.64 Projected Runs Scored
I really like the Phillies tonight for a couple of reasons. First, they are pretty hot as an offense right now, coming off 4 straight games scoring 7 runs or more. Second, they are facing a pretty bad pitcher in DeSclafani for Cincinnati who really struggles vs. left handers. Third, the game is in Cincinnati which is a very favorable park for hitters, especially left handers.
On the season, DeSclafani has a .404 wOBA, 16% K-rate, and 5.14 xFIP vs. left handed hitters. Whats even better is he is giving up the long ball to left handers at a 3.75 HR/9 rate this year. Right handers also are having success against him this year posting a .311 wOBA while hitting the long ball at a 1.48 HR/9 rate. Overall, DeSclafani hasn't shown much as made evident by the 19 earned runs he has given up over the last 20 innings of pitching.
The Phillies, as mentioned have been hitting the ball quite good recently. Focusing only on the last 14 days, the Phillies vs. right handers rank top 10 in both wOBA and wRC+ and rank top 5 in ISO. If you are looking to play an expensive pitcher tonight, I believe the Phillies are a perfect stack to try to help ease the burden of the expensive pricing. Focus on their left handed power most of all but don't forget Hoskins, their best hitter.
Pittsburgh Pirates - 4.86 Projected Runs Scored
The Pirates have been on an absolute tear over the last couple of weeks, in fact extending a week or more before the all-star break. Averaging nearly 7 runs a game regardless of who they faced. Tonight, they enter a juicy matchup vs. Jason Vargas, who just point blank is not a good pitcher. Vargas is coming off a game in Colorado in which he posted a solid FanDuel score of -14 points and the rest of his season hasn't been much better. He has yet to make it past 5 innings and over his last 3 starts has given up 19 hits, 5 home runs, and 12 total runs. Yes, he is coming off two starts in very hitter friendly parks and tonight will be pitching in pitcher friendly PNC, but nothing suggests Vargas has been anything but a terrible pitcher, regardless of location. For 2018, Vargas' left/right split stats include a .434/.417 wOBA 2.61/2.63 HR/9 and 6.50/4.53 xFIP. Both sides of the plate are killing him and even if you expand his stats to include 2017, the numbers only slightly improve.
The Pirates on the other hand have been absolutely tearing the cover off the ball to the point where within a few weeks they turned themselves from trade deadline sellers to buyers. For much of 2018, the Pirates have been a middle-of-the-road team in almost every major advanced team stat vs. left handed pitching. The suggestion to stack them is purely based on the combination of how bad Vargas actually is and how red hot the Pirates lineup has been for much of July. Please note, both Dickerson and Marte were injured during the last series in Cleveland. I would like to see at a minimum Marte in the lineup to really consider using the stack, however, if you are looking for some solid value that can easily return your investment, I believe the Pirates are an ideal cheaper and lower owned stack to focus on tonight.
Other Notes:
There are a ton of bats in great spots tonight. My main focus will be to fit one of the above mentioned stacks with Sale but there are a number of other players I love tonight. This includes Arenado (anytime he faces a left hander at home), Trevor Story, Ian Desmond, and Mookie Betts.
Again, I am sorry I haven't been as active but I should be getting back into it more. Tonight is going to be awesome I can feel it. Good luck tonight and lets win some money!
