We have another Sunday full of baseball,
I planned to publish an article yesterday on DFS until I noticed that the slate was essentially split up between an early and a late slate. Nothing looked overly intriguing so I personally passed up on the slate. But not today, we have a nice early slate of MLB today and I am looking forward to playing.
If you followed the article on Friday, you likely won some money. I had a ton of success both with some of my lock plays (Puig) and stacks (Oakland). Barria also pitched exceptionally well leading me to taking down the tournament I played in. I actually took 1st, 2nd, 8th, 17th and 24th.........overall just a great night. I hope you played and won some money, if so, let me know whats up in the comments.
If you are new to my blog, these articles are meant to provide you with good well researched content on fantasy sports, in particular DFS. All of the research is my own and will directly go into my own lineups. Too many people just copy and paste random articles on DFS just for views without much research or reasoning. That’s not what these articles are about. Not only am I giving you my favorite plays but I’m also giving you my reasoning and research to help you make your own decisions. If the article is wrong you can rest assured I lost money, so know that I am relying on exactly what I publish. Time and research is the key to winning and thats the backbone of my articles. For MLB, I am splitting these articles up into pitching and team stacks, as that is how I play. Personally, I mostly play GPP type tournaments so stacking several players from one team is a strategy I never go without. Stacking (choosing several players from 1 lineup) is a great strategy for MLB DFS that I highly suggest you look into our bread my other articles explaining. All pricing will be based off Fanduel’s settings, as this is currently my favorite platform. Stats are derived primarily from FanGraphs with some random exceptions such as ESPN. If you haven’t already, feel free to follow my referral links and sign up for Fanduel and Draftkings:
Enjoy and please comment with thoughts and suggestions.
This article will focus on slate of games. Although the main slate only includes the early games, I will personally be playing the "All Day" slate in order to maximize the size of the slate and get in some of the later games. We again have the LAD (6.16) @ COL (5.34) game which of course leads the day in projected runs scored. The top 3 implied team run totals outside of the Coors field game include Milwaukee Brewers (5.33), New York Yankees (5.17), and LA Angels (4.87). Your bottom 3 run totals include Boston Red Sox (3.32), New York Mets (3.32), and Texas Rangers (3.63). Confidence level 7/10.
If you are playing the "All Day" slate today with me, you have several options to choose from. I will be focusing my builds today around mid-tier guys as they appear to be in the best matchups.
Jon Lester $8,400
Lester enters today as one of the biggest Vegas favorites for a win and in a ++ matchups vs. the Mets. Lester has some really solid numbers in 2018 and continues to deliver consistency which we love in DFS, especially cash games. Although he hasn't had a game where he has blown anyone away and his strikeouts seem to be down compared to typical Lester numbers, Jon Lester has delivered every 5 days with consistency.
What makes him attractive today outside of his general everyday consistency is the matchup with the Mets. The Mets are just downright awful right now vs. left handed pitchers. For 2018 they rank basically 30th in every major statistical category we like to count of for fantasy. The New York Mets in the split have a 66 wRC+, .263 wOBA, and .098 ISO. All MLB worse on top of a 27% strikeout rate which ranks as the 2nd most.
There really is no reason why Lester can't take care of the Mets today as they aren't doing anything vs. left handers. If you are playing cash games, lock and load Lester without question. He is o.k. for GPP purposes but as mentioned his upside is limited by his low strikeout numbers.
Jake Arrieta $8,500
If you are playing the "All Day" slate like me, Arrieta is my favorite pitcher going. Although it seems like every time I play Arrieta he sucks or has one of his worst games, Arrieta has actually been really good this year, especially of late.
Jake Arrieta matches up today vs. the San Francisco Giants, a matchup I like on paper for a number of reasons. For one, the game is in San Francisco, a place known for being a heavy pitchers park. Second, the Giants have been at most, middle of the road in vs. right handers for 2018. In the split the Giants sport a 100 wRC+ (ranked 14th MLB), .313 wOBA (17th), and .143 ISO (23rd). Nothing spectacular and they generally lack power which will also be limited more by being in San Fran. More so, Belt is likely to be out of their lineup with an injury which severely limits any power they might have had, especially from the left handed side. Arrieta does struggle a bit more vs. left handers and not having Belt in the lineup only boosts Arritas outlook.
I am fairly confident in Arrieta today and will likely have a ton of exposure to him in the "All Day" slate.
Nick Kingham $8,100
This would be considered my wild card as Kingham has shown flashes of brilliance but also some expected struggles as a recent call up rookie. Note, I am a bit biased here since I am a Pirate fan, but Kingham has long been on the best pitchers in the Pirates farm system and a heavily anticipated call-up. He didn't disappoint in the first MLB start a few weeks ago against the team he just so happens to be facing again today. He simply dominated the Cardinals in his first start to a tune of 7 innings, 9 ks, 1 hit, 0 ER. He actually flirted for a moment with a perfect game.
So he gets to face off again with the Cardinals again today but this time in St. Louis. I generally favor the bats a 2nd time around, especially when facing a young pitcher or call-up. However, if Kingham is on like he was in start 1 or even close to that, he should be fine play today. Outside of Carpenter, who is on fire right now, St. Louis is loaded with right handers which should make life a bit easier for the young Pittsburgh right hander. St. Louis hasn't shown much in terms of hitting right handers this year as they rank towards the bottom 1/3 of the league in terms of advanced stats. They sport a split of 92 wRC+ (20th in MLB), .305 wOBA (22nd), and .124 ISO (24th). They also strikeout to a tune of 23%, good for 14th in baseball.
Kingham on the otherhand has been much more dominant vs. right handers for his short career. His left/right split includes a .311/.254 wOBA along with a 19%/33% strikeout rate. He has a very solid 3.76/3.10 xFIP also. I think for GPP purposes you could take a shot with Kingham vs. the right handed heavy St. Louis Cardinals lineup.
Again, fade the LAD @ COL game at your own risk. But if you are playing the main slate you shouldn't have to worry about that game as they aren't included. I will focus on 3 non-Coors teams for stacking and again likely get a small amount of exposure personally by hand selecting certain players.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers have the highest projected run total today outside of the Coors game at 5.33. They face off against the White Sox Dylan Covey today in Chicago who, although has had a pretty good season this year, has career numbers that suggest otherwise. Covey is a young pitcher, so there is some risk here relying on only a years worth of data or less, but the one trend that continues to show is that he does show struggle against left handed bats. For his career Covey has a left handed split .370 wOBA with a 1.88 HR/9 rate. His right handed numbers, although really good this year, aren't that great overall for his career. Your looking at a right handed split of .396 wOBA along with a 2.23 HR/9. Vegas likes them and a short career dataset of their opponent suggests they are in a good spot today. For today, stack up the Brewers, especially their left handed bats.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks have been showing signs of life over the last week or so and take on Dan Straily today at home. Straily hasn't been that bad this year sporting a 3.69 ERA. However, his 4.96 xFIP suggests the ERA number is a bit low and regression is coming. Arizona has a healthy 4.75 projected run total today and although they have struggled mightily all year vs. right handers (literally ranked dead last in most categories) if you focus on the last week or so, they have shot up the leaderboards. I suspect this has in large part been due to the reintroduction of Jake Lamb into their lineup who has really crushed right handers for most of his career. Straily for his career has a left/right split .324/.316 wOBA, 1.29/1.60 HR/9, and 5.15/4.41 xFIP. Clearly a hittable arm. Although he has been better in 2018, he still has a high xFIP, is giving up a high HR/9 rate, and is giving up a 47-50% hard hit rate. Regression is coming and I think today is the day.
I fully admit this is a very risky stack due to Arizonas lack of success all year vs. right handers. But I am not a believer in Straily, love games in Arizona, and believe Arizona is due for some positive regression here in the next couple of weeks. Lock and load for a low owned high upside play, especially those left handed bats.
Cleveland Indians
The Indians seem to be on fire over the last couple of weeks and I really like they spot they are in today. Like the abovementioned stacks, they face off today against Kyle Gibson who is actually having a really good season. He has really good numbers and everything suggests his success this year is not necessarily a fluke. But I am going with the hot bats here in Minnesota, a place that is prone to giving up the long ball and showcasing high scoring events. For 2018, Gibson has been a bit worse to right handed bats. For the split he owns a .311 wOBA, 1.14 HR/9, and 4.0 xFIP. He is also a bit worse at home sporting a .374 wOBA compared to a .222 wOBA on the road.
The Indians on the other hand sport a great 142 wRC+, ranked 2nd in all of baseball. Their .384 wOBA vs. right handers also ranks 2nd in MLB but more impressively is the .253 ISO they now sport which ranks 1st in all of baseball by a decent margin. A bit of risk here considering how successful Gibson has been in 2018 but I like the way Cleveland is swinging the bat and believe they get after Gibson today in Chicago. Final note, we also have great weather for bats in Chicago with winds blowing out strong to center field.
Good luck today and lets win some money!
