Welcome back everyone,
Sorry, its been a couple of weeks since I posted some MLB fantasy related content but I have been traveling a little bit and just returned from Las Vegas. We have a lot of great news surrounding sports and MLB going into this weekend including the recent US Supreme Court decision that will allow states to legalize sports gambling/betting. Rumors are that FanDuel and DraftKings may enter this arena as I have seen them post adveristements and billboards on the subject in certain states such as New Jersey. Who knows, but nonetheless this is exciting for all aspects of fantasy sports and only helps support the industry moving forward.
In other news, we have an exciting night of baseball ahead of us. I plan to publish this article and an article for Saturday's slate to catch up on some of my missed articles. As always, watch the daily weather reports and do your own research before making any final decisions. So lets get after it......
If you are new to my blog, these articles are meant to provide you with good well researched content on fantasy sports, in particular DFS. All of the research is my own and will directly go into my own lineups. Too many people just copy and paste random articles on DFS just for views without much research or reasoning. That’s not what these articles are about. Not only am I giving you my favorite plays but I’m also giving you my reasoning and research to help you make your own decisions. If the article is wrong you can rest assured I lost money, so know that I am relying on exactly what I publish. Time and research is the key to winning and thats the backbone of my articles. For MLB, I am splitting these articles up into pitching and team stacks, as that is how I play. Personally, I mostly play GPP type tournaments so stacking several players from one team is a strategy I never go without. Stacking (choosing several players from 1 lineup) is a great strategy for MLB DFS that I highly suggest you look into our bread my other articles explaining. All pricing will be based off Fanduel’s settings, as this is currently my favorite platform. Stats are derived primarily from FanGraphs with some random exceptions such as ESPN. If you haven’t already, feel free to follow my referral links and sign up for Fanduel and Draftkings:
Enjoy and please comment with thoughts and suggestions.
This article will focus on tonights large 15-game MLB main slate. We a number of exciting games with high totals including the always favorite Coors Field / Colorado game. The top 3 implied team run totals for tonight include Colorado Rockies (5.85), LA Dodgers (5.65), and New York Yankees (5.6). Your bottom 3 run totals include Boston Red Sox (3.13), Houston Astros (3.37), and Atlanta Braves (3.73). Overall, this is a bit of an odd. I tend to try to fade as much as possible the heavily owned Colorado home games, however, I am not so sure they will be crazy owned tonight with the Yankees having such a high total. Pitching is also a bit odd because the pure studs are in tough matchups. Confidence level 6/10.
I'm drilling down to just a couple guys tonight with my overall favorite coming in a bit cheaper than normal. This is simply because I really like some elite bats tonight and to fit them, we need to find some pitcher savings.
Stephen Strasburg - $10,300
Strasburg takes the mound tonight in Atlanta and so far for 2018 is having a great season with very few hiccups. Although the matchup with the Braves doesn't stand out as a ++ matchup due to all their major left handers, Atlanta has surprisingly done most of their elite damage vs. left handed pitchers. Really this pick comes down to, if I am picking a stud type pitcher and paying up, Strasburg is the guy.
Strasburg supports elite level stats over the last 1-year of starts. His left/right splits come in at .259/.264 wOBA, with a 28%/31% strikeout rate. He also continues to limit home run damage while sporting a .88/.80 HR/9 split rate. Overall, the xFIP split supports his elite numbers at 3.45/3, overall just great great numbers. He has high upside with strikeouts, goes long into games, and almost never gets hit hard. On the flip side, as mentioned, Atlanta is actually worse vs. right handers compared to left handers. Vs. right handers, Atlanta as a team for 2018 has a mediocre 100 wRC+ (ranked 15th MLB), .319 wOBA (11th), .155 ISO (19th), and 21% strikeout rate (22nd). Although they don't strikeout a ton, Atlanta doesn't present anything overly scary vs. right hander matchups. In terms of batter v. pitcher numbers (BvP), Strasburg has had a ton of success vs. Atlanta including earlier this year. Freddie Freeman does have great numbers vs. Strasburg but everyone else does not.
If you are looking to pay up for a safe option, I think Strasburg is your man. He also has a -137 vegas win favorite tonight, adding to his win potential. Everything points to him having another successful outing vs. Atlanta tonight.
Jamie Barria - $6,800
Barria is likely going to be my most owned pitcher tonight due to his exceptionally low price tag and excellent matchup. With an o.k. start to the 2018 season, Barria takes the mound tonight at home in LAA vs. the Texas Rangers. This play is more about the matchup and value than anything else.
The Rangers themselves as a team have really struggled this year vs. right handers. They sport a low 83 wRC+ (ranked 25th MLB), .300 wOBA (25th), .154 ISO (21st), and nice 26% strikeout rate (3rd). The matchup, as you can see is great for any right handed pitcher. Barria doesn't sport elite stats nor does he have a large numbers of innings to go off of but for 2018 he has been adequate. More so, Barria comes in as -151 vegas favorite, hopefully allowing us to grab a nice W for him tonight. We don't necessarily need a gem, but the matchup should help Barria have one of his better outings of 2018 and with the savings we can capitalize on big bats.
Sonny Gray - $7,300
This is more so my contrarian play as Sonny Gray hasn't been a great pitcher in 2018. He comes into tonight as a -161 vegas favorite as the Yankees take on the Baltimore Orioles at home. Sonny Gray is simply in an elite matchup and has shown elite stuff/performance in his past. He is also priced very reasonably for a guy that was once considered the ace of the Oakland staff.
His numbers are hardly great but not that bad. For the last year, Gray sports a left/right split of .288/.322 wOBA with a 22%/22% strikeout rate. He also has a decent split xFIP sitting at 3.91/4.11 suggesting he is still a good pitcher. Its more of the matchup with the Orioles that intrigues me the most. Vs. right handers Baltimore has a very very low 79 wRC+ (ranked 27th MLB), .290 wOBA (27th), .155 ISO (20th), and juicy 25% strikeout rate (5th). Its the high strikeout rate that makes me smile the most and I am hoping for a super contrarian play with a nice vegas line backing him up, Sonny Gray can capitalize and provide great value tonight.
You know the deal. We have a game in Colorado tonight (LAD at COL). So fade at your own risk. Personally, I usually fade stacking Colorado games and instead hand select bats to try to be different. If I had to choose, I would play Colorado over LA Dodgers simply because the Dodgers have really struggled vs. left handers this year. But I am playing a TON of Puig (low strikeout rate vs. left handers) and Justin Turner (just a stud).
New York Yankees
The Yankees are coming off a rainout game last night where they were clearly the chalk stack. They are facing the same pitcher tonight in Cashner who is just simply awful. He basically can't strikeout anyone out (16%/13% left/right split) and takes that into Yankee stadium vs. a massively powerful lineup. Thats about all you need to know. What is nice is that we will likely see a ton of ownership flood towards the Colorado game thus making the Yanks less chalky if at all. I will loading them up tonight but again watch the weather.
Oakland A's
I really love Oaklands matchup tonight vs. Ian Kennedy. It is hot and humid in KC which leads to more offense and home runs. Couple this with the fact Kennedy has a huge HR/9 rate at 1.83/1.83 and we could be seeing massive offense out of Oakland tonight. Oakland is sitting 4th in terms of projected runs tonigth at 5.01 and I just love them as a low owned contrarian stack. Pair them with a couple Colorado game bats and you should be great.
LA Angels
The Angels are truthfully my favorite stack of the night as they will get to tee off at home vs. Bartolo Colon. They are huge favorites to win the game and have a strong history of hitting Colon. Make sure you play Simmons, Trout, and Pujols in the stack and you should be fine. Colon simply just has numbers you want to stack all day against. He sports a .349/.360 wOBA split, 1.6/1.95 HR/9 rate and overall basically strikes no-one out with his slow fastball. I think the Angels tee off tonight.
Thats it. Good luck tonight and lets win some money and start June and the summer off right!
