TGIF - We are back at it again with Week 3 of the NFL season and the DFS Drawing Board. I hope you all are enjoying these posts as much as I am but more importantly using them to your advantage to set win some money in DFS!
Last week we did pretty well with our QB picks. Ben Roethlisberger crushed it, throwing for over 450 yards and 3 TDs all while being around 6-7% owned. My best lineup actually contained a Deshaun Watson (Other Consideration pick) stack, who also went low owned due to Week 1 struggles but was able to put up big DFS numbers with Hopkins and Fuller. Alex Smith wasn't the greatest by any metric, which is sad considering his matchup, but in any case we were able to benefit off Big Ben and Watson. So lets try to replicate last weeks results in Week 3.
Each week we take a step back to review the upcoming weeks matchups and crunch the numbers to develop a series of position specific articles related to top daily fantasy sports plays. Whether you are playing on FanDuel, DrafKings, or even configuring your season long NFL lineups, these articles should serve as a reference tool and helpful guide to choosing the best players. I've shortened these articles to give you only the necessities and bottom-line reasoning as to my top choices. This is a no bullshi*t article and by that I mean the players and plays I suggest are those that I will be using in my personal lineups. Nothing is excluded. We intend to win. The goal is to make great lineups, win money, and share our success stories.
If you are new to my blog or daily fantasy sports in general, I encourage you to check out my DFS Introduction post which provides some general context on what DFS is and how to play. Spoiler alert, if you like playing fantasy sports and winning money, DFS is the platform for you. Also, if you haven’t already, feel free to follow my referral links and sign up for Fanduel and Draftkings. Each provides its own set of bonuses for new users.
With that being said, here are my top plays at the quarterback position for Week 3. Enjoy, upvote, and comment on your weekly outlook.
$6,000 / vs. CIN / CAR + 3
Cam Newton is coming off a big Week 2 performance against Atlanta where he threw for 335 yards and 3 TDs. He is also effectively a running back (especially goal line) in the Carolina backfield and added another 42 rushing yards on 5 carries last week. What I am loving about Cam so far is that he has been running a lot and well, posting 100 yards and 1 TD through 2 weeks of action on 18 carries. When playing Cam, we need those rushing numbers.
This week he plays at home vs. the Cincinnati Bengals who, although are 2-0, are not the toughest matchup. The Bengals rank 27th in the league giving up an average of 407 yards per game on defense. Of that total, they have given up on average 332 passing yards per game, easily ranking them as one of the worst so far against the pass. The downside is that Pro Football Focus has the Cincinnati secondary rated as one of the top 3 so far this year which is way up from their preseason ranking of 14th. However, the results so far in terms of yardage allowed to me indicate they can easily be beat plus Cam Newton can offset some passing performances with his ability to run the ball. I also love the fact Cam Newton is priced at only $6,000 on DraftKings, below players like Brees, Big Ben, Wentz, Fitzpatrick, Maholmes, Brady and others. His mid-tier price tag coupled with the upside he offers as both a passer and runner lands him on my top 3 QB list for Week 3.
$6,100 / vs. NYG / HOU +6
I'm going right back to the well with this pick, Deshaun Watson finds himself in another great spot this week vs. the New York Giants. As I mentioned, Watson was great last week, at least in terms of DFS, where he threw for 310 yards, 2 TDs, and had 44 yards rushing. If you read any of my season long articles you should have noticed I am not as high on 2018 Watson compared to others, mainly because he was being taken as a #2-#3 QB off the board going into this season. But that doesn't stop me from playing him at the right price, in the right matchup, in DFS. We saw Week 2 he still has the ability to hurt teams with his legs and just like Cam Newton, that offers us major upside in DFS.
His opponent, the Giants, are a mess right now, both offensively and defensively. Although the Giants haven't given up too many yards through the air through 2 weeks of football, I have little doubt their secondary isn't any better than middle of the road NFL. Preseason ratings by Pro Football Focus has the Giants secondary ranked 15th, just behind the Bengals. Deshaun Watson has some of the most elite playmakers on offense that make for a great stack including Hopkins and Fuller and I suspect Texans have their way with Giants. More importantly, Watson will be scoring rushing TDs this season but has yet to do so. If he can put together another decent week like last and find his first rushing TD, you could be looking at the top DFS QB play of the week. Priced at $100 more than Cam Newton, Deshaun Watson finds his way onto my top 3 QB list for Week 3 for similar reasons - elite upside both as a passer and rusher.
$6,500 / at KC / KC + 6.5
People were all over this guy during the summer for going on a date with a pornstar and I just don't get it. I mean, he is a good looking guy, starting NFL QB, living in California. Whats the big deal? In any regard, Jimmy G and the 49ers travel to Kansas City this week to take on the Chiefs in what should be just a complete shootout. Our top play last week was Big Ben who absolutely tore up the Chiefs secondary all game (although not a great Steeler performance in general). We know have 2 straight weeks of good QBs having their way with the Chiefs through the air. Pro Football Focus rated the Chiefs secondary as one of the worst in the NFL coming into the season and I think, without a doubt, so far they clearly are the worst. They've suffered some injuries and lost some major key pieces and as of now, look like a college team trying to defend an NFL offense.
This has meant great results for opposing QBs. Through 2 weeks, the Chiefs have given up an outstanding 430 yards through the air . . . . . . . on average. Thats just insane and something we need to keep attacking. Now, I don't think Jimmy G is the same type of QB as Big Ben and Phillip Rivers and if it weren't for his uptick in price ($6,500) I would have ranked him even higher, but we cannot doubt he is in a money matchup this weekend. From a football perspective, Jimmy G has been good, leading the 49ers to a 6-1 record since he took over as a starter. He overall stats this year leave much to be desired but agains this team, we could see Jimmy G's coming out party this weekend. My fair warning is that of the 3 guys mentioned, Jimmy G will likely be the most "chalky" in terms of ownership. A lot of people will also be on Maholmes from the Chiefs since he is coming off a ridiculous performance vs. the Steelers and the fact he is loaded with weapons compared to Jimmy G - but if I had to pick, in a game that should see plenty of points scored, I am going with Jimmy G this week as my 3rd DFS QB.
Good luck out there this weekend and lets win some money!
Sourced: SportingNews.com / Pro Football Talk - NBC Sports / Zimbio.com
