Photo Courtesy of Detroit Free Press: https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nba/pistons/2018/02/08/detroit-pistons-blake-griffin-wont-buddy-buddy-vs-l-clips/318960002/
Fellow Fantasy Basketball Players,
Last night was a little disappointing on my end as I didn’t place. The picks suggested all worked out, but taking Antetokounmpo over James unfortunately didn’t work out. As suspected, The Greek Freak was lower owned but Lebron’s 70+ FD points at 50% ownership set us back significantly. Sometimes you need to take these chances understanding that if Lebron gets say 50 and for the money underperforms, we stand alone with our picks. Everyone else worked out well. Kevin Love, although decently owned, went 10x on a $3,500 pricetag while Lamb and Cook also performed above expectations. I did say don’t play both Nick Young and Q Cook based on the low implied team total, so what did I do? I played both like a dummy and against my own advice. Doing so allowed me to fit in Drummond after we got bad news on Gasol’s availability. Young did awful and Drummond also didn’t have a good day, so these two combined ended my night with only 290 and out of the money. Check out the lineup below and results.
March 18, 2018 - Main FD Lineup
The good news is that this is daily fantasy sports and today is a new day. So let’s get started……………
To keep it simple, I’ve basically split the article between CORE and VALUE plays. CORE plays, as it sounds, are the players I believe are best to build around. VALUE plays are players that offer a decent return on investment but that fall below $5,000 (NBA). Please note that ownership % is not necessarily built into my plays, but is something you should consider.
All pricing will be based off FanDuel’s settings, as this is currently my favorite platform.
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Enjoy and please comment with thoughts and suggestions.
Tonight we are looking at a solid 7-game slate. As of this writing, your highest game O/U totals include LA Clippers at Minnesota (226), Dallas at New Orleans (219), and Houston at Portland (216).
In my opinion, the end of the NBA DFS season is becoming increasingly difficult. For one, we are approaching the end of the NBA season, so you’re seeing a lot of odd minutes by players with rest and injuries and teams doing odd things to lineups/minutes with young players (tanking). This always makes it a little more difficult and risky, so I’m not going too heavy. Personally, because of these reasons I will likely only be playing small (3-100) style tournaments, trying to build up some bankroll for the start of the MLB season.
NOTE: KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LAST MINUTE LINEUP CHANGES. PEOPLE GET CRUSHED NOT PAYING ATTENTION TOWARDS THE END OF A SEASON.
NBA DFS - Tuesday, March 19, 2018
CORE
UPDATE: Jrue Holiday has been ruled out for the Pelicans tonight. Although expensive, that puts Anthony Davis squarely in plan based on usage % increases (check out Rotogrinders CourtIQ for more info). E'Twaun Moore also gets a great bump in usage with the absence of Holiday, he becomes a solid, if not #1 value play at SF position coming in at $4,500. The Pelicans will need guard play from somewhere and it will come down to Ian Clark and Moore, I like Moore more lol.
1) Blake Griffin ($8,600) – PF (DET) at Suns
I really don’t like playing players on back-to-back especially big men that are traveling, but tonight may be the exception with Griffin. Pheonix has just been atrocious vs. the PF forward position ranking dead last according to NumberFire. The combination of Drummond and Griffin has proven to be a really good move and tonight I think they feast. I’m choosing to go Griffin over Drummond because I typically don’t play Drummond on back-to-backs and the significant price difference between the two. Since the beginning of March, Griffin has played really well for Detroit averaging over 36 FD points per game. We are going to need more than that tonight being that his price tag has risen to $8,600 but I still think that is a little undervalued for your typical Griffin production. He is starting to get more comfortable with Detroit and it is showing with FD point totals consistently in the 40s now. Tonight’s juicy matchup with the Suns and a high over under and implied team total should all play in favor of Griffin tonight. Detroit is also pushing real hard to the last playoff spot and they need everything they can get from Griffin. I like him as my #1 core play for this evening’s slate.
2) Tobias Harris ($7,700) – PF (LAC) at Timberwolves
We already have news that Harris is questionable so be careful. Look to his backup or other guys getting an uptick in minutes if he sits. Could find some value from it.
Another PF I really like tonight is Tobias Harris. It’s funny because we mentioned Blake Griffin who basically swapped places with Tobias in Detroit. Harris now has a starting role with the Clippers and has really delivered and played steady within their system. Although his matchup tonight with Minnesota is not ideal in terms of DvP, Harris has had success vs. them in the past. In his last two appearances vs. the Timberwolves, Harris has put up FD point totals of 36 and 48, both of which were starts for Detroit. His price has actually dropped a bit, making him even more attractive. Alongside Deandre Jordan and Lou Williams, Harris has been able to put a healthy dosage of shot attempts (14, 20, 24, 14,15). In a game featuring the highest over/under, a high implied team total, and consistent big minutes with nice shot attempt totals, I like Harris tonight as a good core value.
3) C.J. McCollum ($7,200) – SG (POR) vs Rockets
We a good late playoff atmosphere type game lined up between Houston and Portland tonight which also includes a decent over/under total and 5 point spread. Portland has really caught fire recently and knocked off 13 straight wins to move up to the 3rd spot in the West while Houston just continues to dominate the top overall spot in the West. I suspect Portland may be a little offended by being a 5 point underdog at home and wants to extend their winning streak to 14 while also prove themselves against the conference’s best overall team. If this game meets expectations, I can’t imagine C.J. McCollum not having a good game for Portland. These teams do play a few times a year and McCollum has been solid in both appearances so far this year with FD point totals of 41 and 34. It’s been known for a while now that Chris Paul has elite defense while James Harden just exists on the defensive end.
Assuming Paul guards Lillard, this should leave plenty of opportunity for McCollum to capitalize on the Harden matchup. Couple this with the fact that his price has dropped to $7,200 and I really like McCollum for a core play tonight. He should see decent usage and push close to 20 shot attempts which should help lead to easy value.
4) Nemanja Bjelica ($6,100) – SF (MIN) vs. Clippers
I just want to read Ninja when I see this guy’s name. Although that may not be correct in how to read his name, what is for certain is that Bjelica has been getting massive minutes in the absence of Jimmy Butler. His game logs have consistently been over 35 minutes for Minnesota and not surprisingly he has managed to hit value in nearly 75% of his starts. Although his price tag has continued to rise, it actually dropped $600 since his last start. His point totals have been solid and he doesn’t seem to shy away from taking double digit shot attempts. A little over priced to make the value list, I think Bjelica comes in at a solid core/value play tonight.
VALUE
1) Yogi Ferrell ($4,900) – PG (DAL) at Pelicans
There isn’t a ton of good cheap value (under $5,000) to pick from tonight so we may have to adjust towards a more balanced lineup but I think you can make a decent argument for Yogi Ferrell. Coming in just under the value price ceiling, Yogi has a decent matchup tonight vs. New Orleans. Although Dallas’ implied team total is not looking to great at only 105, Yogi has seen an uptick in minutes the last two games. Should he see over 30 minutes again tonight, we can expect decent usage and around 12-15 shot attempts making value at $4,900 attainable.
2) Jamal Crawford ($3,600) – SG (MIN) vs. Clippers
Again, I’m not totally in love with the value plays tonight as I feel like I’m just finding players under the maximum value salary just to fit them into the list. My move tonight will be to stick to a more balanced lineup and steer away from really cheap players under $5,000.
All things considered, you may need a value play or two tonight and with some luck, Jamal Crawford could be your man. He has played a random assortment of minutes throughout the season but seems to be consistently getting between 22-28 minutes on a given night. Similar to the Ninja above, he has benefited directly from the absence of Jimmy Butler. Crawford’s price has fallen to a point now where he comes firmly into consideration as he is only $100 above the bare minimum. I think Crawford, with around 23 minutes tonight can get to value in the highest over/under game of the night with a really decent implied team total. Also worth noting is that the Clippers are ranked 29th vs. the SG position (should he play that position) and he formerly played for the Clippers which may add some revenge narrative.
3) Luke Kennard ($4,000) SG (DET) at Suns
I don’t really know who this guy is to be perfectly honest but if we are looking for random cheap value this guy checks the box. I believe he has been getting an uptick of minutes with Reggie Jackson sidelined, that’s the only explanation I have. The facts are he hasn’t played bad and continues to crush value when he gets close to 30 minutes or more. Sitting at $4,000 we need at least 20 FD points out of him. With a solid matchup vs. a defenseless Suns team and close to 30 minutes in each of the last 6 games, Kennard should find value.
Thanks for reading. Hope you enjoyed. Good luck tonight and let’s win some money!
