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7y
A hardfork does not require 17/20 in a strict sense: Yes, it is a custom to enact them at that point, and generally respected as a means to avoid a blockchain split. However it is possible to hard fork that meta-rule itself, at any support level.
That would likely result in a split, no matter what subchain is longer, but only one of the sides owns the branding, has the exchange listings, and has the capacity to support core development.
RE: Hard Fork 23: Another Hostile Take Over of the Steem Blockchain By Justin Sun is Imminent