I'm generally not one for self-promotion, but I was trying to warn people away from buying packs in Phase 2 unless they were buying >300 packs (@badrag/vouchers-phase-2-and-the-general-sale). I do a lot of similar economics analysis articles you might be interested in!

That said, there is nothing like actual experience vs. just some guy saying something. I'm glad it sounds like it wasn't too bad a blow, and you are still the owner of 150 nice packs which should appreciate nicely down the line.