Price is Hive is simply the price it is currently trading at Bittrex, Binance, Ionomy or any other exchanges. Or you may say it is the price expressed in the price feed of a witness server. Perhaps even the "average" price reported at coinmarketcap. Whatever, your cup to tea it might be in terms of price, I think we all understand that they can be slightly different (highly variable in some rare cases) but more or less they tend to converge. In other words, since Hive is a publicly traded instrument, its price is the cumulative net result vector of all the external forces that is active at any given time. So I must say the price of Hive is 'right'. Yes, it is 'right' today, it was right yesterday, and it will be 'right' tomorrow. At any given time, the price of a publicly traded instrument is right.
Although that is easy to write, but it is not an easy concept to warm up to. It is simply because we are taught in a way that is quite strikingly different from that concept. We are told that price of certain objects can be cheap or expensive or fairly valued at a given time. There is nothing wrong with that statement. The price of a Madonna Concert ticket bought at a few days before the major announcement that this is Madonna's last public show, can be very cheap earlier, but very expensive now. What I am trying to say is the price of an object varies, and therefore, there is a fundamental intuition of intelligent species like ours tend to think that, we can 'value' certain object, perhaps related to others, and therefore can call it checp or expensive at the present time; in expectation that its price may rise or fall in the future respectively. Here we enter the strange world of price prediction! This is where all the mess and debate starts actually. The concept of right and wrong among other things.
I am sorry to dissapoint you, but I do not have the first damn clue! Also, here is the bad news, neither do anyone else. This is the fact, and it is undisputed. Then why is all the non-sense, you ask..Well, I have the good news. There are merits to both technical analysis (TA) and fundamental analysis (a bit difficult for a token, but possible). What it means, that although you can't predict the price accurately, or at all, but if you are a moron, like the rest of us, and you happen to be in a trade, then you can use TA to manage it effectively. A classic example is the recent price rally of Hive from 2000 satoshis to 12000 satoshis. Yeah, I use Hive/BTC exclusively; because to me, I personally never bought hive with USD, so its only BTC for me. Anyways, when that rally happened (or was happening at the time) if you knew TA, you could have doubled... trippled your trading capital. I explained that in a previous post. Point of that post was, when a fundamentally driven rally happens (in our case Huobi exchange listing and associated airdrop), it gives many opportunities within a short time frame to capitalize the gain. Then the rally fizzes, and the party is over (in terms of trading). Usually that is the deal with most alt-coins.
The expectation for the long-term investors and/or content creators at Hive is after each short-term rally, we hold a higher and higher low after the subsequent drop. Then on the next rally expectation is we will hit a new all-time-high (ATH). Higher-lows, higher-highs, defines the uptrend.
In the simple cartoon above, which supposed to represent the idealized Hive chart (LOL!), you can clearly see the expectation. However, reality will likely be quite different looking. As long as we hold some kind of gain after each listing, we will be good.
Oh Boy! That to me can be a strange and funny phrase. Here is my take on it. In Long Term we are all dead. Okay, with that out of the way, let us look at the real- life daily chart of Hive:
Ok, so first the bad news. TA is completely useless with this little data (only little over a month). But that doesn't mean we can't try. We can and we will. Right now the key things I am looking at in this chart is the low base and the ATH. I have no price prediction for you. But personally I'd love to buy anywhere inside the Green Box. The boundary of the box is between 1000-2700 satoshi. That is a fairly wide range. Are we going to get there? That's prediction, like I say, I have no idea. But if we get there, I like to buy Hive at 2700 and anywhere inside the box.
Ok, so when to sell. I can't tell you. But I can tell you what I will do. I am not planning to sell anything, as I am trying to build my position, so my personal pattern in one sided. But I might sell some of my earning or do some flipping in the exchanges. I like to do that at new ATH. I love ATH, and so should you.
Disclaimer: This is NOT professional financial advice, this is all just my own opinion and experience. I am NOT a Certified Financial Adviser. Consult professionals for any financial, accounting or legal related questions you have.
Charts are created in Tradingview.com, which is a free service.
