Conflict Expectations
Okay, so I was trying to crunch numbers and understand how to populate my wagons for conflicts. Especially I have two scholar accounts with regular foil cards only. So I was thinking if I should put wagons there or not. The answer is NO. More precisely, if you have wagons (free) from previous conflict, or free wagons that you have gotten from pack purchase, it is okay to populate them. But DON'T buy wagons from the market spending $6. It will be a very high chance that you will lose money.
Here's how :)
| Rarity | Regular | Gold | Black | Max Reg Wagon | Max Gold Wagon | Max Black Wagon | 30-day Total points Reg | No. of Guaranteed Cards RF | 30-day Total points Gold | No. of Guaranteed Cards GF | 30-day Total points Black | No. of Guaranteed Cards BF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 2,100 | 4,988 | 24,937 | 10,500 | 24,938 | 124,685 | 7,560,000 | 0.095 | 17,955,000 | 0.228 | 9,773,200 | 1.122 |
| Rare | 2,415 | 11,550 | 57,750 | 12,075 | 57,750 | 288,750 | 8,694,000 | 0.109 | 41,580,000 | 0.522 | 07,900,000 | 2.599 |
| Epic | 4,830 | 26,250 | 131,250 | 24,150 | 131,250 | 656,250 | 17,388,000 | 0.217 | 94,500,000 | 1.184 | 72,500,000 | 5.906 |
| Legendary | 5,775 | 52,500 | 262,500 | 28,875 | 262,500 | 1,312,500 | 20,790,000 | 0.260 | 189,000,000 | 2.369 | 45,000,000 | 11.813 |
I can shorten the important bit of the table but just discussing the expected number of guaranteed airdrops card into the following table:
| Rarity | No. of Guaranteed Cards RF | No. of Guaranteed Cards GF | No. of Guaranteed Cards BF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 0.09 | 0.22 | 1.12 |
| Rare | 0.11 | 0.52 | 2.60 |
| Epic | 0.22 | 1.18 | 5.91 |
| Legendary | 0.26 | 2.36 | 11.81 |
Added later: The same plot in linear scale
The way to read this chart is as follows:
- If you fill your wagons with 5 Max Gold Foil Epic CA cards, you are guaranteed to get 1 airdrop card in 30 days of the first conflict (1.12 to be precise, but cards are integers)
- If you fill your wagons with 5 Max Gold Foil Legendary CA cards, you are guaranteed to get 2 airdrop cards in 30 days of the first conflict (2.36 to be precise)
- Anything less than a GFE, has less than a full chance of getting a card
Current Price of CA Legendary Card
Here is the current market prices of CA legendary cards:
The price varies between $5.9 to $15.8. It is impossible to know the price of the first conflict airdrop. However, if one buys a wagon kit from the market, that is currently priced at $6. Plus you might want to consider the cost of Midnight and Alchemy potions, which will add to the net cost. If the airdrop card is priced at the low end of the current market prices, it is better to get the card from the market.