How many cards?

Conflict Expectations

Okay, so I was trying to crunch numbers and understand how to populate my wagons for conflicts. Especially I have two scholar accounts with regular foil cards only. So I was thinking if I should put wagons there or not. The answer is NO. More precisely, if you have wagons (free) from previous conflict, or free wagons that you have gotten from pack purchase, it is okay to populate them. But DON'T buy wagons from the market spending $6. It will be a very high chance that you will lose money.

Here's how :)

Rarity	Regular	Gold	Black	Max Reg Wagon	Max Gold Wagon	Max Black Wagon	30-day Total points Reg	No. of Guaranteed Cards RF	30-day Total points Gold	No. of Guaranteed Cards GF	30-day Total points Black	No. of Guaranteed Cards BF
Common	2,100	4,988	24,937	10,500	24,938	124,685	7,560,000	0.095	17,955,000	0.228	9,773,200	1.122
Rare	2,415	11,550	57,750	12,075	57,750	288,750	8,694,000	0.109	41,580,000	0.522	07,900,000	2.599
Epic	4,830	26,250	131,250	24,150	131,250	656,250	17,388,000	0.217	94,500,000	1.184	72,500,000	5.906
Legendary	5,775	52,500	262,500	28,875	262,500	1,312,500	20,790,000	0.260	189,000,000	2.369	45,000,000	11.813

I can shorten the important bit of the table but just discussing the expected number of guaranteed airdrops card into the following table:

Rarity	No. of Guaranteed Cards RF	No. of Guaranteed Cards GF	No. of Guaranteed Cards BF
Common	0.09	0.22	1.12
Rare	0.11	0.52	2.60
Epic	0.22	1.18	5.91
Legendary	0.26	2.36	11.81

no of guarunteed cards.png

Added later: The same plot in linear scale

The way to read this chart is as follows:

If you fill your wagons with 5 Max Gold Foil Epic CA cards, you are guaranteed to get 1 airdrop card in 30 days of the first conflict (1.12 to be precise, but cards are integers)
If you fill your wagons with 5 Max Gold Foil Legendary CA cards, you are guaranteed to get 2 airdrop cards in 30 days of the first conflict (2.36 to be precise)
Anything less than a GFE, has less than a full chance of getting a card

Current Price of CA Legendary Card

Here is the current market prices of CA legendary cards:

The price varies between $5.9 to $15.8. It is impossible to know the price of the first conflict airdrop. However, if one buys a wagon kit from the market, that is currently priced at $6. Plus you might want to consider the cost of Midnight and Alchemy potions, which will add to the net cost. If the airdrop card is priced at the low end of the current market prices, it is better to get the card from the market.