The war, which began on February 28, 2026, with a series of U.S. and Israeli strikes, is currently under a fragile, conditional ceasefire mediated by Pakistan and Qatar. The "Life Support" Phase: On May 11, 2026, President Trump stated the ceasefire is on "life support" after rejecting Iran's latest counterproposal. While active bombing has slowed, a naval "counter-blockade" remains. The U.S. is blockading Iranian ports, while Iran maintains a chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, charging tolls and restricting traffic, which has fueled a global energy crisis. Reports indicate Iran is using this pause to retrieve weapons systems from underground facilities and is receiving drone components from Russia to rebuild its military capabilities. Conflict continues between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Israel maintains that the Iran ceasefire does not apply to its "Operation Eternal Darkness" in Lebanon.
The primary reason a permanent "Peace Treaty" or even a long-term settlement has not been reached is a fundamental gap in "red line" demands.
"Zero Enrichment" vs. "Right to Enrich": The U.S. and Israel demand a total rollback of Iran’s nuclear program, including the physical extraction of all highly enriched uranium and the dismantling of enrichment sites.
Extraction Dispute: President Trump claimed Iran initially agreed to let the U.S. help extract uranium but later "changed their mind" in writing. Iran maintains that its nuclear program is a sovereign right and a peaceful necessity.
The Toll Scheme: Iran’s proposal includes a demand for formal recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, allowing them to charge tolls.
International Law: The U.S. and the international community reject this, citing international law regarding "freedom of navigation" in the waterway.
Iran's Demands: Tehran is demanding massive war reparations from the U.S., the lifting of all international sanctions, and the unfreezing of all assets held abroad as a prerequisite for a permanent deal.
U.S. Demands: The U.S. position is that sanctions relief will only come after verified nuclear concessions and a permanent halt to Iranian support for regional proxies (like Hezbollah and militias in Iraq).
If you read news from any 'neutral' (are there any?) sources, or formulate the pieces of information in your own mind, the above is approximately what you will likely get as of today. The main question that follows is: now what? As of May 2026, the Trump administration faces a strategic impasse following the initial kinetic phase of the war. Diplomatic efforts in Islamabad have stalled, and the global economy remains under severe pressure due to the ongoing energy crisis.
I tried the summarize the potential outcomes in a table, with approximate probability of each outcome based on my person opinion (damn! I hate to give opinion on this matter!). Hopefully the table is more structured that my random thoughts.
| Outcome Scenario | Approximate Probability | Potential Strategic & Economic Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Fragile "Long Pause" (Current Status Quo) | 40% – 50% | Impact: High economic strain. Oil prices remain at a "new normal" (~$80-$96/bbl). Global supply chains remain congested, and U.S. headline inflation stays elevated by ~1.7 percentage points. |
| Military Escalation (Resumed Bombing) | 30% – 35% | Impact: Severe. U.S. targets would shift to energy infrastructure and IRGC networks. Could drive Brent crude past $150–$200/bbl if the Strait of Hormuz is fully blocked again, maybe triggering a deep global recession. |
| "Grand Bargain" Framework (Islamabad Breakthrough) | 10% – 15% | Impact: Stabilizing. Rapid decline in oil prices toward $70/bbl. Would require U.S. to lift sanctions and Iran to accept "Zero Enrichment." |
| Regime Collapse / Internal Change | <5% | Impact: Unpredictable. While the Islamic Republic has shown resilience, a collapse could lead to a significant power vacuum or a "victory narrative" for the U.S. |
My main disappointment right now is the low probability of the last scenario. That is the outcome I have wanted, and perhaps a lot of Iranians wanted too, but alas, that seems less and less likely every day. My only wishful thinking is I hope/wish I am wrong.
PS: If you haven't listen to this podcast episode, I suggest you consider listening to this. This is perhaps the first honest piece of news that came out of Iran in recent times.
https://www.thisamericanlife.org/886/blackout
