This is question that (almost) every player ponders- not just Blue.
Coincidentally, she had asked me just this question, just a few days ago and so I set about analyzing the expected return on Glint spent in the shop. The Glint Shop presents a dazzling array of choices for how to spend your Glint: Rarity Pulls for cards, Loot Boxes, Titles, and Resources (Merits, Energy and Pots). Presented with all these choices, Blue was understandably confused.
After pulling together data from many different sources, I went about comparing the Loot Boxes to the various other options available in the Glint Shop.
There's still a whole lot of numbers there- too much for Blue to handle all at once. If we look at it one piece at a time, it's easier to understand. For each Chest Type I looked at: Chest Cost, Reward Type, Drop Rate/average quantity, as well as the 'Glint Cost' for each Reward Type- if purchased individually in the Glint Shop.
Focusing on the "Ultimate Chests" first, we see that they cost 4,500 Glint/ea (for the first Batch of 30) and they can produce Cards, Pots, Merits, Energy, or a 'Jackpot'. The percent chance of each result is given along with an average quantity. (Merits in an Ultimate Chest vary between 1-3K so an average of 2,000 is used) The next column shows the 'Glint Cost' for Merits and Energy if purchased in the shop. (Blue plays in D1, Wild as befits a Distinguished and Wild Lady such as herself which is why the cost of Energy is shown as 2800 Glint) The last two columns show expected Glint value/chest opened and the ROI compared to the cost of the chest. In the bottom row, Blue could see the calculated average Glint value of the Cards, Merits, and Energy pulled and compared to the cost of the chest.
The next section to review is the detailed breakdown of Card drops from an Ultimate Chest.
After looking at the drop rate differences between w/Pots vs. no Pots- Blue decided "Pots are Cool" and so the final values are all based on using Pots on all her chests.
This small chart shows the Drop Rate/AVG Quantity of each rarity of Reward card; the Glint Cost to purchase that "Rarity Pull" from the Glint Shop and finally- a calculated Glint value based on those values. Those final values were what was used, along with the drop rate for Cards, to figure the expected Glint Value of a Card drop- in each Chest Type.
Even ignoring the Glint Cost of Pots, Energy, and the chance at a Jackpot- Major Chests are a very good value for the Glint- Returning ~95% of Glint spent on them in the form of Cards and Merits. The ROI of Energy will, of course, vary Wildly depending on the League/Tier of the account you're using- in higher Leagues, the energy alone is worth the price of the chest!
Of course, this only applies to the first batch of chests. (150 Major Chests) After that, Minor Chests and Ultimate Chests are a 'better' value than the Major Chests- although I cautioned Blue that Minor Chests, with their preponderance on Common drops for cards may not be a good idea in the long run.
Buy Major Chests. Buy ALL the Major Chests, in the first batch. I'd buy them in groups so the Pot drops are offset by Card/Merit/Energy drops.
Join a Guild so you can spend the Merits- Gladiators are powerful and it is nearly impossible to advance beyond Silver without them and they can be used to easily advance to the top of Silver, even at low levels.
Misc. Details: #splinterlads, #play2earn, https://x.com/ChrisRo39311115/status/1844770915327857111
