The popularity of WOO is steadily increasing in the last week. The price of $WOO is growing as well. More and more posts appear in the hive blogosphere.
Around a month ago I wrote my first post on how to earn through WOO, just recently I did an overview on how much I earn: WOO 100k $WOO staked and how much do I earn from my assets
And now it is the right time to ask:
Please take into consideration that even though I studied mathematics, probability calculation is hard and complicated, so my calculations might be a bit off, but I tried my best.
What are my chances to win with WOO Mining?
First and foremost we need to calculate how much chance we have to win. For that we need the Monday updates from 
| Date | Unique Accounts | Account % | Total Cards | Card % | Total Tickets | Ticket % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/22 | 403 | 56413 | 2216089 | |||
| 8/29 | 447 | 10.92% | 60331 | 6.95% | 2327724 | 5.04% |
| 9/5 | 484 | 8.28% | 66008 | 9.41% | 2408375 | 3.46% |
| 9/12 | 505 | 4.34% | 69774 | 5.71% | 2551349 | 5.94% |
What do we see in this table. Within 1 month:
- The amount of new accounts increased by over 100
- The cards in the mining pool increase by over 13000
- There are 300.000 more tickets in the game
Now these numbers show that the project is growing, more and more people are interested in the game even though it is not out yet. This is because the team is delivering, developing the tools and listening and responding to requests. Just the type of people you want to have on the go.
Calculating WOO Mining chances?
I will compare the chance of winning once an hour or day in mining now and 1 month ago. What we know is:
- There were 2216089 tickets at the beginning of the raffle on 8/22 and 2551349 on 9/12
- 50 raffles are done each hour.
- In each hour every ticket holder can win only once. This means, that all of the winners lottery tickets are exempt from the following raffles of the hour. This would mean, that if someone has 100000 tickets and wins, then none of these tickets will be included in future draws in that hour.
We will not calculate the winning tickets taken out each hour, this simplifies the math a lot and means the percentage to win is even higher then calculated
---MATH INCOMMING---
So to get the probability if we will have at least one win in an hour from 50 pulls it is the simplest to turn the tables. Let's see the probability of not winning from 50 pulls.
Please don't forget, that in probability all correct results are between 0 and 1. 0 it does not happen, 1 it happens for sure, and everything in between
- Chance of having a winning ticket in 1 raffle pull:
my tickets / all tickets - Chance of not having a winning ticket in 1 raffle pull:
1- (my tickets / all tickets) - Chance my tickets won't win in 50 raffle pulls:
(1- (my tickets / all tickets)) on the power of 50 - Chance I have at least one winning ticket in 50 raffle pulls:
1- [(1- (my tickets / all tickets)) on the power of 50]
---MATH OVER---
Now lets see the results in case we have 100, 500, 1.000, 2.000, 5.000 or 10.000 tickets
| Ticket Count | 8/22 : Chance To Win once an Hour | 9/12 : Chance To Win once an Hour | 8/22 : Chance To Win once an day | 9/12 : Chance To Win once an day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0.23% | 0.20% | 5.27% | 4.59% |
| 500 | 1.12% | 0.98% | 23.75% | 20.96% |
| 1.000 | 2.23% | 1.94% | 41.82% | 37.53% |
| 2.000 | 4.41% | 3.85% | 66.16% | 60.98% |
| 5.000 | 10.68% | 9.34% | 93.35% | 90.50% |
| 10.000 | 20.24% | 17.83% | 99.59% | 99.10% |
The table clearly shows, that the chance to win is dropping, but not by a high margin. So if you can get cards for a good price, then join our little mining community!
Also I did update my Ticket Counting google sheet with this new information. So when you calculate your tickets it will also show how much chance you have to win once hourly and daily.
Updated Ticket Counting Tool Link
Enjoy!
PS: In case you find any calculation errors, then let me know.
Welcome to the WOO family!
That was all for today. I hope you liked this overview and if you are missing any content, then feel free to ask, or jump into the WOO discord channel
Picture of the teacher shot by Katerina Homes, taken from: https://www.pexels.com/photo/happy-black-woman-using-laptop-for-online-work-5905713/
All other pictures are taken from the WOO discord and website and adjusted for the content.