This is something I have been wondering a while, good job with the numbers. Obviously we have way too much supply for the use right now. I don't know why Splinterlands idea was to have such high inflation from the beginning. As you very well put it, the biggest sink its the licenses. With an ever increasing price in each tranche I believe there will be MANY years before everything is sold out, specially at this SPS valuation.
All in all if no new big voucher sinks are implemented, the voucher price will have a very hard time reaching the intended 3USD/Voucher. This will heavily impact the profitability of license holders, as the biggest past of the rewards is in vouchers right now.
RE: Vouchers Will Probably Remain Under-Pegged