Bottom line: The issue environment is exclusively in favor of the GOP in this cycle, and the results are going to reflect that. Almost every battleground senate race and governorship will go GOP. Almost every battleground house seat will go GOP.
This will lead to the GOP gaining 4 Senate seats, 4 governorships and 36 house seats. There will be races which are considered huge upsets where the GOP wins, such as the Pennsylvania governorship and the New Hampshire Senate seat. There will be others where the GOP comes extremely close but ultimately short, such as the governorships of Michigan, New York, Connecticut and Maine.
I expect Republicans to absolutely sweep Upstate New York. The deep blue seats centered in Buffalo, Rochester and Albany will remain, but the rest of Upstate (7 of the 10 total seats) will be Republican. Long Island will also be a near Republican sweep. That being said, I think the margin Hochul runs up in New York City will still be large enough that she wins by 3-4 points. I would not be surprised at all to see Michael Henry win the attorney general race.
If this is how the country ends up looking on November 9th, there is truly no excuse for the GOP to fail in blocking everything that Biden does. This would be a 61 seat House majority, 62% of governorships and an 8 seat Senate majority, which is functional dominance of the state level and legislative branch of government. You need to hold their feet to the fire and make sure that a Republican majority actually means something.
