Some good points, but the obvious reason for Hamas's horrific attack is to derail the Saudi - Israel peace talks. Also Iran getting confident in false reflected glory of Russian impending victory in Ukraine.

They fundamentally misunderstand that Israel is not a US proxy and will not flee like the US. Nor does it depend on Western weapons like Ukraine.

Like Pearl Harbour they have awakened a giant that will crush them - within days Israel will field an army twice as large as Russia's (700,000+).
The loser lefty politicised generals will be fired and real warfighters put in charge.

Israel's 30 year strategy of trying to "manage" terror or "mow the lawn" is a clear failure.

BTW: The 20% of Russian Israeli's are not Turkic. They are Ashkenazi European.