The problem with this model is that is based off of one sample (the 2017 bull run). ETH didn't even exist during the previous one.

It may well play out that way but who knows. For altcoins to take off it needs to be fueled by retail investment. I doubt that institutions will take risks with anything other than BTC and ETH.

Given the fact that retail got burned with the ICO craze the last time round and that individuals are having a tough time getting any spare money due to the current economic situation it's difficult to think that we will have a repeat of 2017 where even if you threw a rock at any coin you would receive a massive ROI.

Edit: I think I spoke too soon. The altcoin space is showing a lot of movement across the board.