Coin Bureau Analysis

source

I watched analysis of Coin bureau on fed pivot

• my understanding is fed will not budge from it's aim till Q3
• interest rate consensus among fed members been around 5%, which I expect to breach in 2023 or at least in 2024 maybe. I know, some might not agree. I'm just thinking probabilities in these terms.
• Unemployment as per Devos (or whatever they met the time in the mountains sometime ago) time was also targeted to be acceptable around 4%, which I also expect this target has higher chance of being breached in their next meetings over the next Q2-Q3 2023.
• Current target of 5% interest rate might reach sometime in Q1 - Q2. Just speculative thought 🤔
• Govt parties will put pressure on Jerome to either halt increasing or start decreasing interest rate, I guess all the time in 2023. Inflation might not get down on whatever their target time frame might have in their mind, and pressure might either blow up or result in more troubled decisions people might not expect. More pain, or relief sooner than expected.
  --- if more pain, there goes the value of market
  --- if sooner relief, there goes the long term value of market. But sure, take full advantage of short term pump, then repeat of same cycle again.
  Looking at Jerome's poker face, it's hard to tell what he's gonna do. At some point I watched a video of Jerome and he seems determined and confident to follow the footsteps of Paul Volcker. Hard to tell what someone who we only saw on the internet or news might be like. This adds up uncertainty and probabilities hard to think about in social psychological manner. 🤔 At Q&A times he dances around some questions/answers, and avoids the points to cover on. Just shows that how much harder his job is made by the system he's put into. And it's funny to see just how much entire global market moves just by the words spoken by a single man on earth. 😂