We are no low trust, we actually are gullible.
Do you mean gullible in their fatalistic oppression by the corruption in the hierarchy?
No one can trust the police. No one trusts the police. That is an example of low trust.
It also manifests in terms of debt, because the lack of a decentralized Christian or otherwise national government welfare backstop causes people to be very wary of debt. They do not have the trust and confidence to finance their maximum risk-taking potential. The Silicon Valley is all about crazy, risk-taking. Heck I wrote software that was used by 1% of the entire Internet working from squalor in a Nipa Hut in the Philippines. That’s extreme risk. I was in danger of running out of food. And then I remember my own family refused to even help me out with a little $ to help me through the rough patch. I was eating only rice and beans. But my residual culture (coming from high-trust assurance even though I had none) caused me to take that risk.
Low-trust cultures lack risk-taking trust because they get stomped on by the hierarchy. Who wants to take a huge risk when the oligarchies take your successes and leave you wallowing in your failures. This is why top-down cultures aren’t good at capital formation and innovation.
I will quote from someone in California:
Silicon Valley, well, you profoundly misunderstand why it works. I’ve started five companies and funded dozens of others, and let me tell you this: Succesful tech founders come in three flavors, which sometimes overlap: (1) Batshit insane, (2) Only sort of insane but too driven/autistic/sociopathic/etc. to succeed in a large company, (3) desperate immigrants who will move mountains to prove to their parents that they are successful. Without the weird mix of cultures, languages, random educational backgrounds, people with resumes that would get bounced in 5 seconds from IBM/Accenture/Goldman/Proctor&Gamble etc., and yes, the mind-altering drugs, you would not have 85% of the technologies that get invented.
This place is literally unhinged, and that is what makes it a place where people invent things. Startup founders are feral. They’re really not fit for polite society. And especially not Southern polite society. The moneyed folk from places like Texas are allergic to the types of smart but crazy that makes Silicon Valley work as it does.
And venture capitalists are … possibly even weirder, even though they do have their shirts professionally cleaned and pressed. Consider the psychology of an person whose sole job is to make money by investing it in unprofitable enterprises with unstable managers, with the explicit expectation that 60–80% of their investments will lose 100% of the capital. In Texas you call these people wildcatters.
It is not a coincidence that the weirdest place in Texas — Austin -- is the closest thing you have to a Silicon Valley-type tech cluster.
All those earnest people in pressed sport coats trying to make The Woodlands or Dallas’ gay neighborhood into some sort of tech mecca by throwing silly amounts of oil money at the problem…good friggin luck. I’ve been in those meetings. Shenzhen, Bangalore, and Beijing will brain-drain Palo Alto to death long before you have a Silicon Longhorn Ranch or whatever.
High-tech behemoths such as Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, etc… are typically created by college dropouts (Bezos also dropped one of his degrees and dropped quickly out of the mainstream path after graduation). All of the following linked is irrelevant:
An entrepreneur’s guide to Mexico City’s tech scene
Top-down structures don’t create the technological behemoths. Instead Mexico’s IT sector is working in low-risk large corporations in finance and telcoms (this is what I observed even guys in Spain prefer security over risking everything for greatness):
Top 35 companies of Mexico in the IPC index 2019 - Disfold
Burgeoning tech sector in Mexico leads to thriving IT industry
Some have speculated that Hajnal Westerners have a very broad IQ curve with much more extremely high IQ outliers than East Asians although the East Asians have slightly higher mean IQ. We don’t like boring steady work for boring large corporation, are crazy mofos and include me as one of the loons. ;-)
Even if that speculation turns out to be incorrect, that linked blog posits a causal and non-linear relationship between high IQ and GDP:
Prodigy. That's because the relationship between per capita GDP and mean IQ is not linear.
And note Mexico’s average IQ is only 87 according to the cited data.
The data though is spiked by brownness, although males do have a broader IQ curve than females.
Most scientific discoveries have originated from Europe, and Europeans have won 20 times more Nobel Prizes than have Northeast Asians. We argue that this is explained not by IQ, but by interracial personality differences, underpinned by differences in gene distribution. In particular, the variance in scientific achievement is explained by differences in inquisitiveness (DRD4 7-repeat), psychological stability (5HTTLPR long form), and individualism (mu-opioid receptor gene; OPRM1 G allele). Northeast Asians tend to be lower in these psychological traits, which we argue are necessary for exceptional scientific accomplishments.
You wrote:
And the lack of debt indicates a solid economy that is less vulnerable to the hits from economic crisis from outside, that is why i’m sure that will endure the supposed 2029 crisis fairly well. If i compare how well we endured the Oil crisis onf 1970’s, when we were deep in debt and the 2008 when we barely had any debt… I rather keept the low debt, in 2008 we fare far better than the so called first world.
This is strong point of yours perhaps. I quickly looked up government debt is $200 bn, Pemex $100 bn, and household debt another $200 bn. So that is 42% of GDP versus for example ~60% aggregate for the Philippines.
I reason that Mexicans who are not dependent on the first world are likely to fare better than the first world that slides into economic depression (e.g. the Mayans may even be positively economically impacted by any coming global economic depression).
Note though that Mexico fared significantly worse than or equivalent to some other mercantilist, export driven countries in the 2008 subprime meltdown in the USA:
https://tradingeconomics.com/mexico/gdp-growth-annual
https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth
https://tradingeconomics.com/brazil/gdp-growth
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual
https://tradingeconomics.com/south-korea/gdp-growth
But there is a significant point of my thesis which you have apparently not emphasized enough. That is the dollar is going to become very, very strong because international capital is going to stampede into the safe haven reserve currency (at least initially until the powers-that-be are ready to transition the world to Bitcoin by replacing the dollar in Facebook Libra’s backing reserve).
So we must ask what happens to Mexico when the rest of the world (including Mexico) is economically collapsing except not the USA. How does Mexico service the $50 bn of Pemex debt coming due over the next couple of years if the private sector demands 15% interest rates. If by 2026 or so, Mexico is paying 20+% interest on $104 billion of Pemex debt and 10+% interest on $200 bn of government debt (again especially if all financed in dollars!) as the pesos declines by up to -50% and the government revenues in pesos also declining another -20%. So eventually reach a crescendo of perhaps $50 bn of annual debt service on gross revenue of perhaps $100 – 150 bn. And with drug cartels raking in perhaps $100 billion a year. Now who is more powerful the cartels or the government at that point.
Perhaps those rough guesstimates are too pessimistic. I do not have time to do an exhaustive analysis. I can reasonably assume that Mexico is not going to be the place I want to be over the next decade.
“More soldiers will realize Mexico does not really care about them.”
How did told you about this? The military has received a lot of more funding and its budget increased by a lot, also they have received a lot of protection from the civil laws and has been somewhat shielded against political and judicial fallout. So much that desertion is in a historical low.
And when they in future see their country collapsing economically and the defectors from the military getting rich in the drug trade?
I am stating my own theory about the future. Blame it only on me.
Look, it has been fun, but besides the apocaliptic predictions about something that might or not happen in 1 decade
You will not need to wait until 2029 to get some indication of whether a global economic collapse is ensuing. Europe, Japan, Turkey, and/or Hong Kong should start to blow up in earnest by about 2022. The world has been immersed in a global bond and declining interest rate bubble since the early 1980s. When that ends, the world is going to reshaped in catastrophic events akin to WW2. We are coming to the end of a major epoch in human civilization and new epoch as the world transitions from the Second Industrial Revolution to the Second Computer Revolution (including all things high tech such as automation, machine learning, and biotech). The Second stage of a technological revolution is where the really disruptive changes take place. For example the First Industrial Revolution disrupted cottage industry, but the Second caused the World Wars and forced a monetary reset Bretton Woods. Ditto this Second Computer Revolution is going to cause a monetary reset and wars. And the decentralization technology and massive technological unemployment it creates will wreck havoc on extant political-economic structures.
that you lakc of a completely fundamental understanding of what makes Mexico thicks or of the subtly gears of our society, because while your basic assumptions are right, as you said “face the Damned Facts”, all your deductions are quite off from what is truly happening in the country or how we are reacting.
Be careful of the Dunning-Kruger syndrome. You have made some strong points which I have incorporated into my understanding. yet my original (from the start of this discussion) generative essence understanding seems to be mostly correct and has not changed.
You do not foresee imminent drastic global economic change. I do. Thus you think static hierarchies will be safe. I don’t. One of us will be proven correct.
In the meantime, I am open to further information.
RE: Bitcoin rises because land is becoming worthless