I replied:
I wrote:
Here is something very important. Armstrong wrote on November 26:
A year-end closing below 4150 will point to a drop back to 775 area.
Note that Bitcoin closed the year at $4177! So Armstrong’s most bearish possible scenario was miraculously averted.I was going through the charts on Trading View and noticed that Bitcoin closed the year at approx between $3835 to $3580 (depending on the exchange). On Xmas eve the price was more like $4177… I assume you may have confused these dates (as I do being a catholic). I thought I’d point that out in case it weighs in on your future assumptions on Bitcoin’s price.
Well f*ck me. I was looking at the default logarithmic view at 99bitcoins which displays “
2019-01-01 $4177.35”, because at that time cryptowat.ch was crashing on the old version of my Chrome browser on Linux Mint Mate. I have installed an “unstable” newest version of Chrome (only other choice available on my older revision of Mint Mate) and now I can see you are correct.So according to Armstrong’s computer system, the BTC prices is headed to $775! No wonder he is gloating so much about Bitcoin being not capable of having any significant impact.
I don’t know whether to trust his system, but this does cause me to think very carefully about planning.
Hopefully his computer is wrong. But I can’t see why Armstrong would want to be deliberately wrong about Bitcoin’s price. How does he benefit from that? He (or Socrates) has a strong incentive to be accurate whatever they’re predicting. Perhaps I’m not privy to some information here, but it makes no sense to me that he’d do this
Today I became concerned about Martin Armstrong because he published:
I must inform everyone that the government has begun another action in trying to shut me up. Their goal is to silence me once and for all. It does not matter. They can kill me, it will not change the outcome.
Note he quickly removed that text from his blog post (and I didn’t think to quickly archive his blog post), but after noticing it was missing when I reloaded his blog post, I archived it from Google’s cache as follows:
Might have something to do with this:
https://pennrecord.com/stories/512607230-pa-case-concerning-coin-collection-sale-stayed-while-new-york-issues-play-out (archived)
They’re apparently pulled him back into the corrupt New York courts jurisdiction again.
When I searched on his name I happenstanced upon the following detailed article which mentions that quote we were discussing before:
There was no possible way governments would EVER hand over such power to Bitcoin. These people have no clue about the age of knowledge, for they are trapped in the age of stupidity. A monthly closing below 2950 will confirm the long-term trend is turning down. A year-end closing below 4150 will point to a drop back to 775 area. It was a trading vehicle – not an investment class for the long-term. With the IMF telling all central banks to create their own cryptocurrency and the introduction of Blockchain in experimenting with tax collection, we face a very different future due to technology. However, it will not be a world of free-market cryptos that bring governments to their knees.
Recently I have been posting a very detailed explanation about the epic SegWit donations “attack” (←click that link, which is also archived) that if it happens, I argue would destroy the Core variant of Bitcoin (perhaps this May 2020 at the halving effect).
Most people think that Blockstream’s Core is Bitcoin, and thus it seems that Armstrong’s $775 prediction for the coming price of “Bitcoin” (i.e. Core’s BitcOn scam) could still come to fruition! Oh my!
The logic is that the Blockstream’s Core variant of Bitcoin will be nearly destroyed or totally destroyed if the said donations “attack” transpires, fulfilling the warnings of everyone who thought and said Bitcoin was analogous to a Tulip Bubble.
Armstrong included the following chart his blogs here, here, and here:
I wrote 7 months ago:
[…] someone sent me the following chart with the comment that $3100 is the 200 DMA and if BTC falls through $2400 we are doomed.
The current vertical move could be a reaction, deadcat bounce up to $12+k below those red trend lines on the above chart, which would explain the weird projected fractal patterns I was trying to understand. This would be explicable if this was a dead-cat bounce for the impostor, scam Blockstream Core BitcOn and simultaneously an extremely bullish a low volume adoption spike (and not a dead-cat bounce) for the real Bitcoin...
Because I posit the real Satoshi v0.5.3 immutable protocol Bitcoin (aka “real Bitcoin”, the actual, true, original, immutable, one-and-only Bitcoin) will continue on and go to very high prices perhaps $1 million before the end of 2020. But most people will not believe that is Bitcoin. It may not even trade on exchanges. The price may not be liquid for most people, even those who hodl Legacy addresses (i.e. real Bitcoin).
Obviously I have written many times that I think the above BTC charts are illusions because they’re linearly instead of logarithmic scaled on the price axis. So those illusions fit perfectly with the illusion that Blockstream’s Core is Bitcoin. The Core impostor will die as a Tulip Bubble, but the real Bitcoin will continue appreciating towards $100+ trillion market cap.
Make sure read @lauch3D’s comment below this blog and my reply to it. So perhaps we should use linear charts for analyzing the Core shitcoin and logarithmic charts for the real Bitcoin:
THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT. AND NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO MY POSTS.
The May 2020 timeline is presuming that Craig Wright is not bluffing. Craig’s group does have ~3000 peta-hash/s which is a few percent of Bitcoin’s network hashrate, so that might be sufficient to lead the “attack” as I have explained in great detail (c.f. the links earlier in this blog).
Why would Craig bluff when the “attack” appears to be both plausible and insanely profitable (again refer to the link to the detailed explanation). And he would fulfill his admonishments and warnings about destroying all the scammers in the cryptocosm:
Bitcoin (both variants) should at least attain $12k before the May 2020 halving and probably be loitering there for a while before the halving:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/D77ZTaQb-Bitcoin-macro-view-non-linear-regression/
It could spike higher than that, but I am not expecting it:
https://twitter.com/davthewave/status/1133722207656407041
- davthewave
At the halving everyone will be expecting BTC to start to blast off. Instead if Craig Wright keeps his promise to dump massive (SegWit) BTC (which I presume he will have already split before loading on the exchanges so he loses no real BTC), then everyone will be caught by surprise. If that is the SegWit “attack” as I have posited, then that the real BTC would be blasting off, while Blockstream’s Core BitcoOn is plausibly plummeting to $775. The halving will halve the rewards for miners at same time as Core is cratering in price, so the Core protocol miners will be forced to mine on real Bitcoin or go bankrupt.
Seems to be a perfect fit. That’s the way to make the market go against the vast majority, which is what markets do. If instead the SegWit “attack” was delayed until the next ATH, then many people would be taking profits and the miners would be very profitable even with a crash in the price, so that wouldn’t fit.
Core would collapse in price on exchanges also because the chain will become so slow nearly no on-chain transactions are being confirmed. If the price ever stabilizes and if the difficulty ever readjusts, then we will be dumping our free airdrop Core shitcoins on any exchanges that survive.
What will this do to altcoins? I would think that this would send altcoin prices skyrocketing because they would be the way to get your BTC off of exchanges by trading BTC for any altcoin.
However the cratering BTC price will cause everyone to want to sell their altcoins for fiat and get out of the cryptocosm. There will be a panic and stampede for the exits.
So altcoins will provide liquidity but not price appreciation and will lose value relative to fiat price. Surely the altcoins will lose relative value compared to real BTC, but real BTC may not be trading on any exchanges (who would be stupid enough to load their real BTC to an exchange when we do not know which ones will be bankrupted by this).
At the worst of the blood in the streets perhaps after some months, that might be a buying opportunity for altcoins but not Core. It will take time for the market to understand that real BTC lives on, then altcoins will rebound with a vengeance.
I do not know how long it will take for liquidity to appear on exchanges for real BTC. Any thoughts?
Note I can envision/imagine many ICO-scam altcoins possibly never recovering because for example the devs might be sued or government action taken against them for losing all the value of the investors. I think this is possible for EOS and Binance Token for example. Craig Wright claims both Daniel Larimer and CZ of Binance are going to prison.
But at least, if Litecoin does not suffer a SegWit attack, then it should eventually recover after declining to a very low price. At the bottom perhaps former Litecoin $millionaires will may be worth less than $100k or perhaps even lower.
I think it is crazy to sell any real BTC that we do not need to sell. Just hodl but be prepared to hodl for up to 2 years before you can sell.
And expect the regulatory environment to become much more strict within that time frame. It may be much more difficult to sell real BTC for fiat. Capital controls might already be ramping up.
I think it is going to be absolutely critical to have alternative means of trading cryptocurrency. Meaning that you do not want to locked down by USA or EU edicts.
As for the future of altcoins, I think they will eventually come back, but maybe the market will weed out only the strong altcoins that have a real future.
I think your reasoning seems very possible if there is a segwit attack. Exchanges will get very fcked over. Segwit adoption seems to be stabilizing around 40%
https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-segwit-adoption/
My guess is the exchanges are among the adopters so there will be a big impact on them […]
I have some further questions.
You were talking a bit about litecoin not suffering a segwit attack. Why not? If this attack is confimred possible on btc what protects ltc from having the same fait?
I'm not really clear about the difference between bsv and legacy btc. Is it that bsv has lifted the block size cap tampering with the store of value function? Will the market see a clear winner in legacy or is there a risk bsv is the winner? I mean at first my guess is bsv will shoot up fast because the market will understand Craig was correct in his Segwit attack and hence the market will support his coin.
The chart you provided is daily volume. That does not tell us what percent of the UTXO is stored in SegWit addresses, which may be growing over time, not plateauing. Try to find the chart we need.
Exchanges that have their own assets stored in Core addresses may not be able to pay their bills, if Core can’t transact on chain. Also as the fiat price of the cryptocosm craters, their fiat income craters also. Realize for example that Kraken has their own BTC on loan to users for their leveraged short feature. So their clients who have put up that BTC for Kraken to loan out, may have some contractual demands they can put on Kraken.
Note the Blockstream Core devs would presumably at some point release a new mining client with a manually readjusted difficulty level if the hashrate craters too much. That would of course be the blasphemy of centralized control. I could also imagine Craig attacking Core with their 3000 peta-hash causing difficulty adjustment attacks ongoing. Would Core then change the proof-of-work algorithm? Lol. They become a shitcoin like Monero that is completely centralized (btw I recently found more revelations about this which vindicate me entirely!).
Exchanges which allow users to cash BTC to fiat and then withdraw may get squeezed if they can not sell the BTC to raise fiat. Squeezed exchanges may experience a stampede out of altcoins causing the exchange to collapse.
With the prices and thus hashrate of so many blockchains cratered, 50+% (colloquially misnamed 51%) attacks may proliferate on many altcoins causing huge losses for exchanges.
The chaos could be unfathomable. My popcorn is ready.
How much SegWit value is there to take on Litecoin? Who has sufficient hashrate and wants to initiate the attack on Litecoin? Also Litecoin seems to have a fanatical user base. Remember Litecoin’s valuation is not “going for the gold” so the value of the immutability is less so than on Bitcoin.
There is no SegWit to take on BSV. BSV already hard forked off. Forks of Bitcoin can not compete with real, immutable, one-and-only Bitcoin.
RE: Most Important Bitcoin Chart Ever