Crypto is all about seasons, and if you want to learn more about how cycles behave you can read on how history rhymes so you get more context on what is an alt season. If you're looking to learn about cycle tops, you can read my narrative on this.
First things first: An altseason can totally happen without your bags pumping yet
If you are reading this post on inLeo, which is part of the Hive ecosystem, then this applies to you 100%, as Hive tends to ultra mega lag when it comes to the alt season, sometimes to a point where just when we though we weren't even going to be part of the turbo pump and morale is down, Hive does a 10x and catches everyone off-guard.
But anyway, an altseason can happen in sectors of the crypto space, and even though your bags might not be pumping, the altseason has started, which is something that it might already be happening right now - refer to the first link if you don't see how overlapping seasons in crypto market cycles work.
The entire altcoin market might not have outperformed bitcoin yet but it's actively rising for the past few months. I have more than a few coins that have done an entire 100% in the past 3-4 months. I also have some others that haven't moved an inch.
What this is beginning to tell me is that this cycle will not see a normal bull market based on the previous 3-4 cycles. I mean, what is normal in crypto, right? Hard to tell, but I'm beginning to think that we won't see the normal BTC > ETH > midCaps > Shitcoins > NFTs waterfall effect from other cycles.
We might be in for a full on bonanza for everyone with seasons overlapping, lags, mini crashes before the next ATHs, all of that mixed with each other right before the big crash.
Just because HIVE, XRP, ADA, LTC are not pumping, it doesn't mean that the alt season is not here. Look at TIA, SOL, INJ, all of those attest that there is capital flowing to mid caps, it's just not flowing everywhere - it was never meant to, that's why you pick your winners and hope you picked them right, then ride them to your goals and hope for the best.
During the last cycle bull run in 2021, alts were going absolutely bananas and a lot of people made life changing money, but even during peak bonanza a friend of mine was truly convinced a real altseason had yet to start.
I was thinking to myself "is he looking at another market than I am?" That reasoning is clearly flawed and it will be his doom, he will end up holding a bag that might never pump (it never did) and he will be stuck in the markets for a full cycle - he is. I had to explain things to him, he didn't listen, so now with the impending money making machine coming our way I feel the need to share this here for anyone to learn a thing or two.
Every day 100 new tokens enter the market in bull season. Every single day collateral gets freed from vaults of people who are paying their loans out of BTC gains and a part of that money gets injected into altcoins. Now, every single day there will be ETF money flowing into BTC, pumping the bags of retail and non-ETF bros, who will basically have new money to inject into their bags, or depending on the cycle's stage, might even want to find small hidden gems.
But there's still no mathematical way that money flows to EVERY single alts and everything pumps. Some altcoins will pump 20x while some others will do a clean 100x, but also some others will only do a 2-3x.
What's the solution?
You have to pick some winners, identify where capital will flow the most or if you are late to the party, those narratives where money is flowing, and then find a new project riding that narrative. It might be a boost and not a bum, but if you want to make life changing money you have to take risks.
You can also find old projects, which are very different from Dino projects - Hive is old, Steem is Dino - with stronger narratives - like Rune, which has been here since the last cycle but is still innovating and is riding a modern, trendy narrative.
The market doesn't just only favor the really new ones, it also favors older ones with strong narratives.
For example, some AI and RWA projects have been around for 1-2 years but they are seeing a strong surge right now. These are two strong narratives that are getting a lot of inflows. Obviously, the new projects are getting some love as well due to riding the same narrative, and both kind - new and old - will see new ATHs. Just make sure the project you are betting on is not dino old.
Some older ones might still pump a bit but it's just more unlikely they will., you don't need to believe me but the market has shown proof of this time and time again.
It's fine if a project does not pump in a bear market.
It's not fine if they don't pump the entire first halve of the bull market, because they likely won't in the second halve either - this doesn't apply to ultra lagging Hive by the way, Hive behaves differently, don't worry if we don't pump during the first half of the bulls.
Trading is a game of odds which is why diversification is an important concept to learn. If all your money is in one bag you are betting on an exception, not a rule, and you might end up holding a zero-pump bag.
